re: Will bond vigilantes force the hand of the US government to finally curb spending?

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That's not a fix. That's a signal to spend more because they have no issue with debt.

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Instead just keep waiting for the leaders that will cut spending then

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a republican will lean towards spending cuts

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Biggest myth in politics. Republicans haven't cut spending since HW.

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People should stop buying treasury bonds no matter the rate to force spending cuts.

Would possibly be an effective form of protest on out of control govt spending

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I don't necessarily disagree with that, but that's definitely an easier-said-than-done thing.

The largest single holder of federal debt is the federal government itself (agency trust funds). Cutting spending by enough to just balance the budget should mean a massive cut in how much the government trust funds buy, which I believe would drive yield demands higher (not sure how the direct sales of GAS impacts the amount of publicly auctioned debt). Federal government trust funds and agencies hold something like 21% of the current debt. If private investment would stop purchasing federal debt, that 21% would attrition out.

However, this would then mean the federal government would default in its debt as annual deficits have been outpacing interest payments for nearly 20 years in a row. In other words, we've been having to borrow more just to service current debt for a long time now. So in order to balance the budget, the funds Congress would be able to spend would need to be no more than expected revenues MINUS debt servicing. What this would look like is:

2024 total spending: $6.75T
2024 total revenues: $4.92
2024 total debt servicing: $939.9B (rounding up to $940B for easy math)

Remove debt servicing from the equation and setting it aside looks like this:

*total spending: $5.81T
*total revenues: $3.98T

In order to balance that budget without defaulting on the debt would mean cutting every other bit of spending by ~31.5%. That's cutting Medicare, Section 8, highway funds, military salaries and benefits, VA funding, buying paper for the copier at any random USDA office, etc. by nearly 1/3. That sort of cuts guarantees that if it passed, anyone voting for it would never be re-elected again. This would be a huge move which would alter the economic landscape of the entire country (and possibly the world). Those are the reasons why the USD will crash under the weight of its own debt before that sort of change could happen.

Yearly tax revenue has increased 2.18x, from 2.03T in 2000 to 4.44T in 2023.

Meanwhile, yearly spending has gone up 3.4x, from 1.79T in 2000 to 6.19T in 2023.

We're not going to be able to tax our way out of this.

There is nothing cut in this bill. There is a promise to reduce the amount of future increase in spending.

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1.6 trillion cut in this bill

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How much is spent in FY26? Is it less than what'll end up being spent in FY25?

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At this point the only thing to turn this ship is to let the tax cuts expire

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Wow

We need a “new deal” type of spending. Let’s rehab the entire country to get it ready for year 2150

You need new material

Jerome can be too late all he wants. You can cheer on stupid all you want

Dont be crying about recessions