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Thoughts on strategy to trade this volatility
Posted on 7/24/26 at 11:10 pm
Posted on 7/24/26 at 11:10 pm
Is there a way to play the volatility we’ve seen in these stocks?. I don’t have enough shares in most to sell options…and I don’t want to go naked.
It seems like you could do a tight straddle with a 60 day strike and it would work if you sell when one swings into the green.
Thoughts? TIA.
It seems like you could do a tight straddle with a 60 day strike and it would work if you sell when one swings into the green.
Thoughts? TIA.
Posted on 7/25/26 at 2:26 am to Boomer Rick
quote:But seriously, this.
Don’t?
Posted on 7/25/26 at 5:17 am to SquatchDawg
If you can lose more than all of your money, it’s not an investment.
Posted on 7/25/26 at 6:03 am to SquatchDawg
This is the headline of a CNBC article from a couple days ago.
Warren Buffett on the market today: ‘It’s tough to find values when everybody is preferring gambling’
Warren Buffett on the market today: ‘It’s tough to find values when everybody is preferring gambling’
Posted on 7/25/26 at 7:38 am to SquatchDawg
Buy shares on the dip, and immediately put in a limit order to sell when it goes back up. Hedge against a slow rebound by getting dividend stocks.
Trading volatility is another way of saying trying to time the market.
You could also buy the Volatility Index but you'd be buying high.
Trading volatility is another way of saying trying to time the market.
You could also buy the Volatility Index but you'd be buying high.
Posted on 7/25/26 at 7:44 am to SquatchDawg
Buy low, buy lower.
Sell higher.
Seriously. I’d just wait.
Sell higher.
Seriously. I’d just wait.
Posted on 7/25/26 at 8:47 am to SquatchDawg
The most conservative way to play this and actually make money is to buy a high beta stock and sell when QQQ makes its new higher low…somewhere around 705…
This may only be a 1-3 day trade in this crazy market.
I wouldn’t even play both sides. Chop up city.
This may only be a 1-3 day trade in this crazy market.
I wouldn’t even play both sides. Chop up city.
Posted on 7/25/26 at 8:54 am to SquatchDawg
day traders love volatility for a reason. Carefully pick your entry and take whatever profit you can while minimizing loss. Those charts that look like a saw blade pattern are perfect for this strategy.
Posted on 7/25/26 at 9:19 am to beaverfever
quote:
Don’t?
But seriously, this.
Good to get validation on my current strategy - which is hold and watch.
ETA: also my trading account is play money than anything else where I’m trying new ideas. Small positions, exit if it turns on me. I don’t want to lose my arse but I’m 2x the S&P YTD so I have some room.
This post was edited on 7/25/26 at 10:07 am
Posted on 7/25/26 at 10:05 am to SquatchDawg
the debasement trade is alive and well ….. soon to resume the bull
Posted on 7/25/26 at 10:07 am to SquatchDawg
And I don’t like to have a large QQQ hedge on during these times.
One tweet and you’ve lost 70% on your puts. That’s the point so keep it small.
And make sure your other stocks will pump big on that tweet.
One tweet and you’ve lost 70% on your puts. That’s the point so keep it small.
And make sure your other stocks will pump big on that tweet.
Posted on 7/25/26 at 10:13 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
One tweet and you’ve lost 70% on your puts. That’s the point so keep it small.
I’ve got plenty of upside if things go well as I’m long on everything. I might start hedging for the downside but need to better understand when and how much and for what duration.
Posted on 7/25/26 at 11:53 am to SquatchDawg
quote:
It seems like you could do a tight straddle with a 60 day strike and it would work if you sell when one swings into the green.
Timing the market guy is back
Posted on 7/26/26 at 4:24 pm to SquatchDawg
Get a crystal ball.
Posted on 7/26/26 at 6:38 pm to geauxpurple
The most we can know this week is can QQQ reclaim some moving averages?
If it gets close, will you short it?
If it breaks out, will you go long?
That’s about all you can do.
Shorting just because it may be deep green tomorrow is a fool’s errand.
If it gets close, will you short it?
If it breaks out, will you go long?
That’s about all you can do.
Shorting just because it may be deep green tomorrow is a fool’s errand.
Posted on 7/26/26 at 7:58 pm to SquatchDawg
shite you can buy on Friday and sell on Monday the way things are going.
Posted on 7/26/26 at 8:21 pm to bayoubengals88
He’s spot on. Let it be your guide.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 7/26/26 at 10:21 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
He’s spot on. Let it be your guide.
Ehhhhhhhhhh, I don't know how much predictive power closing above the 50 SMA actually has.
This will be an apples to pears comparison in regards to what he is saying since he is talking Nasdaq instead of SPX, but they're similar enough. I have a spreadsheet analyzing the performance of SPX closing above or below several simple moving averages.
If you bought SPX at the open the day after it closed above the 50 SMA and held until 20 days passed without SPX crossing (potentially back) above the 50 SMA, you'd have an average return of 1.094% per trade over the past 33 years. 125 trades, 68% win rate without considering trading fees and slippage, average trade length of 31 trading days (approximately 1 1/2 months).
On the other hand, if you did the same thing but bought when SPX closed below the 50 SMA, you'd get an average of 1.085% per trade over that same time period. 125 trades, also 68% win rate, and average trade length of 30 trading days. Not much of a difference.
Then you look at SPX's average 30 day return over that time period and realize it is 1.135% with a 65% win rate and wonder why you would even bother.
This post was edited on 7/26/26 at 10:47 pm
Posted on 7/27/26 at 9:26 am to SquatchDawg
Trump drops bombs on Fridays and calls for peace on Sundays.
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