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re: Spec Play - HGRAF
Posted on 8/28/26 at 1:36 pm to Jax-Tiger
Posted on 8/28/26 at 1:36 pm to Jax-Tiger
quote:
moderators don't need to be in every discussion to settle every argument.
I agree to an extent. I also believe there is a monetary incentive to allow a bit too much arguing on TD. This site brings in $$$ and drama gets clicks, and clicks mean more $$$. rinse, repeat...
There are parts of this site that need more moderation in my opinion. Very often a good topic gets brought up only to be derailed by a few aholes in a pissing match. I'm not defending the Discord guy, i prefer some back and forth of different views, and he is likely too quick, but we have to realize there are two completely different situations/cultures. almost apples and oranges.
Posted on 8/28/26 at 2:20 pm to Dock Holiday
I don't think there's any doubt he's too quick. Arneri Design dropped out after he tossed someone about 3 minutes after he joined.
My point is that I have belonged to a number of boards and the best run boards are where disagreements are allowed to run there course. If someone is a pot stirrer and gets into arguments all the time, then okay, give him the heave ho.
My point is that I have belonged to a number of boards and the best run boards are where disagreements are allowed to run there course. If someone is a pot stirrer and gets into arguments all the time, then okay, give him the heave ho.
Posted on 8/28/26 at 4:05 pm to Dock Holiday
quote:
One note I found in the filing, their tax auditor "resigned voluntarily due to the move to the US", that's now on record. They picked up another auditor immediately, Grant Thorton, a well known one.
That is a very good sign that their auditor has been switched. MNP (old one) is pretty much exclusive Cdn microcap.
Grant is now 5th biggest in world - they just acquired CBIZ to expand more into the types of issuers like HGAF.
Definitely big sign prepping for IPO - GT will likely reaudit earlier years with financials done under US GAAP (or a reconciliation but with redomicile I suspect full reaudit)
Posted on 8/28/26 at 5:43 pm to igoringa
To me, that is just another step that validates the company. A small step, but in the right direction.
Redomicile is going to happen. The market should react to that between now and when it happens.
Listing on the NASDAQ with another fund raising round will give them the money to get some big government grants. I believe they will clear double digits if they get a government grant.
Building the production plant will also happen.
They have said they will get contracts within 2026.
One large contract will make us very happy.
Redomicile, NASDAQ listing, and production facility are pretty much in their control.
Government grants and contracts are not. Seems like thats what this comes down to, at this point. Can they close the deal?
Redomicile is going to happen. The market should react to that between now and when it happens.
Listing on the NASDAQ with another fund raising round will give them the money to get some big government grants. I believe they will clear double digits if they get a government grant.
Building the production plant will also happen.
They have said they will get contracts within 2026.
One large contract will make us very happy.
Redomicile, NASDAQ listing, and production facility are pretty much in their control.
Government grants and contracts are not. Seems like thats what this comes down to, at this point. Can they close the deal?
Posted on 8/28/26 at 8:59 pm to Jax-Tiger
quote:
Building the production plant will also happen.
They have said they will get contracts within 2026.
One large contract will make us very happy.
One thing we have learned, repeatedly, with multiple examples, is that every step moves slower than we think it will, and than we are told it will.
Another thing we have learned is that when we are given dates of when things will happen, then they don't, there is no explanation why, or a new date as to when we can expect it.
And last, but most important. Things do happen. They happen in their own time, plodding along. When they do happen, there is usually some kind of pleasant surprise accompanying the step. I guess my point is, everything is going to happen, just slowly, methodically and not when we expect.
My plan is unchanged. I will sell my first chunk between Christmas and NYE of 2029. Anything before then will be a pleasant surprise and i can move my timetable up. I still expect we will continue to move at the speed of smell. GLTA
Posted on 8/28/26 at 11:29 pm to Hangit
interesting interview in Texas Business publication with our favorite CEO regarding everything we expect to be coming.
Texas CEO Publication
Texas CEO Publication
This post was edited on 8/29/26 at 10:00 am
Posted on 8/29/26 at 7:19 am to supadave3
Thanks for sharing.
All the science stuff makes a lot of sense. Once we get some announced contacts this thing should pop.
All the science stuff makes a lot of sense. Once we get some announced contacts this thing should pop.
Posted on 8/30/26 at 9:31 am to kaaj24
Will see
If you build it will they come?
Graphene is 100% going to be adopted eventually as the new fundamental building material for almost all applications
That said and what we’re most interested in as a quick timeline to that adoption
There is no guarantee, however, that it’s going to be quickly adopted and that’s the biggest risk here with the stock
For fun I ask ChatGPT about how long it took plastics after World War II to become mainstream and this is what I got
* 1945–1950: Wartime plastics such as nylon, acrylic, polyethylene, and polystyrene began moving rapidly into civilian products. Manufacturers had enormous production capacity left over from the war.
* 1950s: This was the real plastic boom. Plastics increasingly appeared in kitchenware, toys, radios, furniture, flooring, packaging, automobile components, electrical products, and clothing.
* Late 1950s–early 1960s: Plastics were thoroughly mainstream. Things that previously would have been made from glass, metal, wood, paper, rubber, or natural fibers were routinely being made from plastic.
* 1960s: Disposable plastic products and plastic packaging accelerated enormously, helping create the plastic-heavy consumer economy we’re familiar with today.
I think we could all agree that we could deal with five years but waiting on this 10 to 15 years is going to be a tough pill to swallow if that becomes the case
If you build it will they come?
Graphene is 100% going to be adopted eventually as the new fundamental building material for almost all applications
That said and what we’re most interested in as a quick timeline to that adoption
There is no guarantee, however, that it’s going to be quickly adopted and that’s the biggest risk here with the stock
For fun I ask ChatGPT about how long it took plastics after World War II to become mainstream and this is what I got
* 1945–1950: Wartime plastics such as nylon, acrylic, polyethylene, and polystyrene began moving rapidly into civilian products. Manufacturers had enormous production capacity left over from the war.
* 1950s: This was the real plastic boom. Plastics increasingly appeared in kitchenware, toys, radios, furniture, flooring, packaging, automobile components, electrical products, and clothing.
* Late 1950s–early 1960s: Plastics were thoroughly mainstream. Things that previously would have been made from glass, metal, wood, paper, rubber, or natural fibers were routinely being made from plastic.
* 1960s: Disposable plastic products and plastic packaging accelerated enormously, helping create the plastic-heavy consumer economy we’re familiar with today.
I think we could all agree that we could deal with five years but waiting on this 10 to 15 years is going to be a tough pill to swallow if that becomes the case
Posted on 8/30/26 at 10:07 am to masoncj
Make sense that it’s going to take time for industrial production to adopt. As long as the return will outperform the S&P 500 I’ll be patient. Traders have a different view.
Posted on 8/30/26 at 12:45 pm to masoncj
quote:
I think we could all agree that we could deal with five years but waiting on this 10 to 15 years is going to be a tough pill to swallow if that becomes the case
Is the plastic industry, in the context of the 1940s - 1960s, really a 1 to 1 comparison? I just dont think so at all.
Posted on 8/30/26 at 4:56 pm to tiggerthetooth
Nothing is 1 to 1. The mention or comparison happens because of the diverse and multiplicitous potential of graphene. One could say carbon fiber has some of graphene characteristics but not close to 1 to 1 comp either. Graphene applications appear ubiquitous.
Posted on 8/30/26 at 5:45 pm to ynlvr
A couple of points:
Graphene isnt replacing other materials, like plastic did. Graphene will be making materials we already use, better. We may not notice the difference in many cases. Plastic was a material that made things less expensive, but was considered lower quality, or cheaper, in many cases.
Graphene has a lot of qualities that no other material can replicate. Conductivity, strength, and flexibility. We had to convince people to buy a product made of plastic. Do you want a lawnmower with a plastic flywheel or steel? There is no compromise with graphene, so companies can just deploy it without getting approval from customers.
Graphene isnt replacing other materials, like plastic did. Graphene will be making materials we already use, better. We may not notice the difference in many cases. Plastic was a material that made things less expensive, but was considered lower quality, or cheaper, in many cases.
Graphene has a lot of qualities that no other material can replicate. Conductivity, strength, and flexibility. We had to convince people to buy a product made of plastic. Do you want a lawnmower with a plastic flywheel or steel? There is no compromise with graphene, so companies can just deploy it without getting approval from customers.
Posted on 8/30/26 at 7:45 pm to Jax-Tiger
Technological change happens faster than last century.
This stock is won or lost by Management’s ability to show and sell the use cases.
This stock is won or lost by Management’s ability to show and sell the use cases.
Posted on 8/31/26 at 6:21 am to JperiodCperiod
quote:
This stock is won or lost by Management’s ability to show and sell the use cases.
Hopefully, we get a serious raise in price after re-domicile, uplist, institutional buy-in and the first pre-negotiated contracts. I hope to pull initial investment in no more than a year. I don’t think I’ll need the money, but the above milestones should be hit before the stock possibly starts dripping as we wait for major contracts.
Maybe I’ll leave money on the table, but I’m not walking away a loser on this one and I feel like all of the above will definitely happen. After that, who knows.
This post was edited on 8/31/26 at 6:22 am
Posted on 8/31/26 at 7:14 am to supadave3
Im staying flexible in my exit strategy.
I want to get a feel as to whether this is the start of something massive or if it is petering out or slowing down.
If they make a deal with a major auto company, I will watch to see if the paint, battery, plastics in the car give it a competitive advantage that other manufacturers want to replicate.
My most likely scenario is to sell a bit at a time to secure profits and evaluate. My philosophy is to invest in what makes sense right now, after factoring in other investments, taxes, etc. I won't hang on to a stock because I hope it bounces back. I will keep some money on HGRAF as long as graphene TAM is growing.
I want to get a feel as to whether this is the start of something massive or if it is petering out or slowing down.
If they make a deal with a major auto company, I will watch to see if the paint, battery, plastics in the car give it a competitive advantage that other manufacturers want to replicate.
My most likely scenario is to sell a bit at a time to secure profits and evaluate. My philosophy is to invest in what makes sense right now, after factoring in other investments, taxes, etc. I won't hang on to a stock because I hope it bounces back. I will keep some money on HGRAF as long as graphene TAM is growing.
Posted on 8/31/26 at 9:04 am to Jax-Tiger
To clarify:
Assuming all of the things that HGRAF can control end up happening in the next 6 months - all the way through breaking ground on the production facility, the only things they can't control are POs and government grants. Everything else is execution.
If they execute on those events, the stock price should hit double digits, IMO, even without a lot of contracted sales. That is the point where the rubber meets the road. We'll see.
Assuming all of the things that HGRAF can control end up happening in the next 6 months - all the way through breaking ground on the production facility, the only things they can't control are POs and government grants. Everything else is execution.
If they execute on those events, the stock price should hit double digits, IMO, even without a lot of contracted sales. That is the point where the rubber meets the road. We'll see.
Posted on 8/31/26 at 1:30 pm to Jax-Tiger
quote:
f they execute on those events, the stock price should hit double digits,
I used to believe this but now it increasingly looks like a sell the news situation.
I still think we will hit 5 or 6 but until the Government signs a purchase order we will never see 10
Posted on 8/31/26 at 2:03 pm to Guntoter1
quote:
I used to believe this but now it increasingly looks like a sell the news situation.
I still think we will hit 5 or 6 but until the Government signs a purchase order we will never see 10
I believe they have gotten more guarded in making announcements, and are trying to coordinate the news so that the events all happen adjacent to each other.
We went over $5 for a brief bit on the gas line contract. I think the redomicile is more important, and we should get to 5-6 bucks on that, alone.
Worst case scenario is that they are fumbling around trying to make this work and we see delays all through 2026-2027.
Best case scenario is that they already have clients who want graphene in 2027, and are waiting for the production facility to be operational before inking a deal. We can see double digits if they have small contracts signed (fulfilled out of Austin) and all the ducks in a row.
1000 tons of small/medium contracts and a government grant/contract will take this up over $30/share. One large 1000t contract puts over $50/share.
Will that happen? We'll see. I think the thing we don't know is what is the TAM and how fast is it going to grow?
Posted on 8/31/26 at 2:38 pm to Guntoter1
I don’t foresee the govt ever issuing HG a PO for anything
Been discussed but what would the govt/DOW do with raw graphene ? The govt does manufacture anything.
Hopefully What we should see is defense contractors signing orders. But that in and of itself adds more complexity
Been discussed but what would the govt/DOW do with raw graphene ? The govt does manufacture anything.
Hopefully What we should see is defense contractors signing orders. But that in and of itself adds more complexity
Posted on 8/31/26 at 3:46 pm to masoncj
quote:
I don’t foresee the govt ever issuing HG a PO for anything
I could.
The Mexican government issued defense contracts to BIEI which is premier biomedical, a graphene company.
HydroGraph is pushing the U.S. government to designate graphene as a critical material and fund qualification programs.
If the government actually moves in that direction, HGRAF’s domestic production becomes much more valuable.
This post was edited on 8/31/26 at 3:48 pm
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