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re: SPCX IPO
Posted on 7/23/26 at 10:11 am to cgrand
Posted on 7/23/26 at 10:11 am to cgrand
quote:
something to keep in mind as unlock dates approach…some very big money positions have been waiting years, some many many years, for liquidity. Any bounce after unlocking is going to trigger selling. And it seems historically likely that the bouncing as the unlocks progress will be to lower highs, and lower lows.
Its got to be somewhat unsettling for the long term investors to have had their perceived value of investment cut in half over the last 6 weeks.
Posted on 7/28/26 at 7:45 am to GeauxTigers123
FOMO>dump>capitulation>accumulation>rally.
Buy SPCX at 75/80 like the big money will be doing.
BTW if you own SPCX you really should listen to Musk’s comments on the recent TSLA earnings call. Know what you own and why you own it. Both companies are going to have to create entire new economies from whole cloth to do what they say they want to do. The opportunity is immense but so is the timeline
Buy SPCX at 75/80 like the big money will be doing.
BTW if you own SPCX you really should listen to Musk’s comments on the recent TSLA earnings call. Know what you own and why you own it. Both companies are going to have to create entire new economies from whole cloth to do what they say they want to do. The opportunity is immense but so is the timeline
This post was edited on 7/28/26 at 7:46 am
Posted on 7/28/26 at 8:17 am to GeauxTigers123
quote:Has any major IPO not cut in half within 12-18 months of the IPO date? I feel like this has happened to every single major IPO and was expected except for those who thought "this time is different"
Its got to be somewhat unsettling for the long term investors to have had their perceived value of investment cut in half over the last 6 weeks.
Posted on 7/28/26 at 8:21 pm to TigerTatorTots
Is anyone buying the SPCX structured note that’s coming out this Friday? Not sure if it’s just a morgan Stanley thing or if it’s widely available
Posted on 7/28/26 at 8:56 pm to TitleistProV1X
quote:
Is anyone buying the SPCX structured note that’s coming out this Friday? Not sure if it’s just a morgan Stanley thing or if it’s widely available
Completely unattractive... Long terms, weak yield, and unsecured.
Not sure there is much good at all for a retail investor
Posted on 7/28/26 at 9:32 pm to cgrand
quote:
Buy SPCX at 75/80 like the big money will be doing
So Thursday, based on the current trajectory of the price
Posted on 7/28/26 at 9:34 pm to TigerTatorTots
The most unsettling part would be that we havent even gotten to the tip of the iceberg on unlocks. The main downside i see in the short term to being a holder hasnt even begun.
This post was edited on 7/28/26 at 9:35 pm
Posted on 7/29/26 at 12:57 pm to Pendulum
We shall see. 32% shorted.
Price has stabilized and volume is stabilizing.
110-115 actively being defended.
I think today is the first day I’d start sweating if I was short.
If it’s still 110-115 and low volume trading by next Tuesday I’d be crapping my pants.
Price has stabilized and volume is stabilizing.
110-115 actively being defended.
I think today is the first day I’d start sweating if I was short.
If it’s still 110-115 and low volume trading by next Tuesday I’d be crapping my pants.
This post was edited on 7/29/26 at 1:32 pm
Posted on 7/29/26 at 2:13 pm to Golgi Apparatus
First big unlock is Thursday. Friday the 7th will be reckoning for SPCX
Posted on 7/29/26 at 7:32 pm to racknreel
I wonder if hedging is prohibited to locked up shares like normal with spcx.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:02 pm to GeauxTigers123
quote:
Its got to be somewhat unsettling for the long term investors to have had their perceived value of investment cut in half over the last 6 weeks.
Time to get in?
Posted on 7/30/26 at 9:04 am to racknreel
quote:
First big unlock is Thursday. Friday the 7th will be reckoning for SPCX
Agreed. It will definitely be a reckoning and a historic day. Short float around 35% now.
I think the most dangerous assumption being made right now is that this stock dropped from 220 to 110 and theres no one ready to step up and defend it as it goes all the way down into double digits.
I’m probably wrong, but my guess is this got overplayed by short sellers and theres gonna be a painful squeeze
Posted on 7/30/26 at 9:22 am to Golgi Apparatus
quote:there will be a mad rush to the ticket window, I agree but not until the smoke clears from the IPO. The stock price is irrelevant until then; whatever it winds up being after all the supply is dumped is what the entry price will be. Doesn’t matter if it’s ten bucks or a hundred bucks
I’m probably wrong, but my guess is this got overplayed by short sellers and theres gonna be a painful squeeze
Don’t swim upstream
Posted on 7/30/26 at 9:42 am to cgrand
quote:
there will be a mad rush to the ticket window, I agree but not until the smoke clears from the IPO. The stock price is irrelevant until then; whatever it winds up being after all the supply is dumped is what the entry price will be. Doesn’t matter if it’s ten bucks or a hundred bucks
I disagree about the stock price being irrelevant. The current stock price is relevant because it’s a psychological / institutional wall that is being formed and may be defended through the release on 8/6.
I agree about the floor showing up once the first 20% dump happens. I’m just betting the floor doesn't go below 100 (hopefully not even 110 as my cost basis is sitting in low 120s and I can’t risk buying any more shares).
If it drops super low like you're thinking then I’ve bought in too early.
Posted on 7/30/26 at 9:50 am to Golgi Apparatus
we could both be right or wrong or either or, nobody knows. What I do know is that only 5% of the 13B SPCX shares are currently trading. There is potential that supply will massively overwhelm demand, at any price.
I think it’s best to treat SPCX shares (at the moment) as a commodity, not a measure of future free cash flow. This is an artificial environment until the supply clears.
I hope you make a shitpile of money. I’m going to wait
I think it’s best to treat SPCX shares (at the moment) as a commodity, not a measure of future free cash flow. This is an artificial environment until the supply clears.
I hope you make a shitpile of money. I’m going to wait
Posted on 7/30/26 at 10:04 am to cgrand
Fair enough.
Posted on 7/30/26 at 11:01 am to Golgi Apparatus
quote:You've got a lot of words that don't really say anything. The valuation is absurd. That's all that matters.
I disagree about the stock price being irrelevant. The current stock price is relevant because it’s a psychological / institutional wall that is being formed and may be defended through the release on 8/6.
I agree about the floor showing up once the first 20% dump happens. I’m just betting the floor doesn't go below 100 (hopefully not even 110 as my cost basis is sitting in low 120s and I can’t risk buying any more shares).
If it drops super low like you're thinking then I’ve bought in too early.
Posted on 7/30/26 at 11:19 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
You've got a lot of words that don't really say anything. The valuation is absurd. That's all that matters.
I have my opinion. We shall see if it’s right or not. Have a nice rest of your day.
Posted on 7/30/26 at 11:44 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:yes it is currently absurd. It won’t be that way forever. Either way I’m not going to make a value judgement until “normal” trading begins…after the new year at soonest.
The valuation is absurd. That's all that matters.
there is substantial risk in holding it now due to the unprecedented unwind of the IPO. Don’t listen to anyone who says they know what will happen
Posted on 8/3/26 at 8:24 am to cgrand
SPCX continues to circle the drain.
This post was edited on 8/3/26 at 8:52 am
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