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Message
Ok so pretend I'm 5 and have no prior knowledge of how the US economy works.
Posted on 7/29/22 at 9:33 am
Posted on 7/29/22 at 9:33 am
This will make most of you guys/gals roll your eyes I'm sure so here it goes. Even basic simple answers are fine but really trying to better understand how all this works a little deeper.
Question(s)
1) How does raising Interest rates reign in already High inflation on product goods? What should be the goal we(fed) want to achieve here? What should we expect?
Personally, I was going to refi in 2023. Not happening now.(Due to rates)
Was going to look at buying a small business. On hold now.(Due to rates)
I'm a lurker at best on the Money Board, so kid gloves for me here trying to understand what most people if are being honest don't really understand how this works when the fed raises rates.
Question(s)
1) How does raising Interest rates reign in already High inflation on product goods? What should be the goal we(fed) want to achieve here? What should we expect?
Personally, I was going to refi in 2023. Not happening now.(Due to rates)
Was going to look at buying a small business. On hold now.(Due to rates)
I'm a lurker at best on the Money Board, so kid gloves for me here trying to understand what most people if are being honest don't really understand how this works when the fed raises rates.
Posted on 7/29/22 at 9:38 am to Morpheus
I’m an idiot so I feel qualified to answer this.
When you raise interest rates you make less people borrow money and more people save money. This takes money out of circulation which will lessen inflation.
When you raise interest rates you make less people borrow money and more people save money. This takes money out of circulation which will lessen inflation.
Posted on 7/29/22 at 9:46 am to Morpheus
quote:
1) How does raising Interest rates reign in already High inflation on product goods? What should be the goal we(fed) want to achieve here? What should we expect?
Fed funds rate is the rate banks make on deposits held at the fed reserve. The higher that rate, the higher the bar is raised for a bank to consider taking on any risk with their capital. 2.5% risk free at the Fed is more attractive than a 3% auto loan, for example. That makes borrowing cost go up to clear the bar. Simultaneously, the rate for savers goes up as well (albeit not at a 1-to-1 correlation), so saving money instead of spending it becomes more attractive.
Raising rates actually constricts supply (lowers capital investment due to costs), but the thought process is it can slow down demand at an even faster clip.
It’s not the most efficient tool, but it’s one of the few the Fed has.
ETA: The goal is to slow demand enough, without crippling it, for the infamously “transitory” supply problems to catch up.
ETA.2: To provide a little clarity, the Fed Funds rate is the rate banks charge one another to lend through the Fed, and the Fed also pays banks for their reserve balances, called the “interest rate on reserve balances” or IORB rate. That rate is usually a tick under the FFR, and is currently 2.4%.
This post was edited on 7/29/22 at 12:42 pm
Posted on 7/29/22 at 9:52 am to Morpheus
quote:
Personally, I was going to refi in 2023. Not happening now.(Due to rates)
Was going to look at buying a small business. On hold now.(Due to rates)
You quite literally answered your own question. Kudos.
It slows activity - such as yours - bringing the pace of increases (inflation) down.
Posted on 7/29/22 at 10:01 am to Morpheus
quote:Law of supply and demand. If demand outstrips supply, prices go up.
1) How does raising Interest rates reign in already High inflation on product goods? What should be the goal we(fed) want to achieve here? What should we expect?
When interest rates are low, people can borrow more money for the things they want. They can afford more expensive houses and vehicles. Easier to take out loans to do things like home improvement projects or buy boats and other recreational toys. Businesses can borrow money cheaply for projects or expansions.
Raising interest rates makes money more expensive to borrow, so people and businesses tend to borrow less. So less cheap money flying around reduces demand, which in turn should reduce prices.
Posted on 7/29/22 at 10:02 am to UpstairsComputer
And the simplest way to think about inflation is that inflation happens when there are too many dollars chasing too few goods. So basically when you print money and give it to people in return for no good created or service provided, you're driving inflation.
And then that "free gubmint money" leads to the wage-price spiral, which is:
Businesses needing to pay people more to get people to work --> them needing to raise the price of their goods/services to cover those costs --> more inflation --> people demanding higher wages to keep up with inflation --> go back to the start of this paragraph
And then that "free gubmint money" leads to the wage-price spiral, which is:
Businesses needing to pay people more to get people to work --> them needing to raise the price of their goods/services to cover those costs --> more inflation --> people demanding higher wages to keep up with inflation --> go back to the start of this paragraph
Posted on 7/29/22 at 10:16 am to Morpheus
The economy is essentially measured by transaction volume. Higher interest rates discourage transactions, while lower encourages. The more an economy spends (particularly in the private sector), the more opportunities arise, more goods become available, prices become fair and transparent, etc.
In an ideal state, there should be a natural equilibrium in the rate between borrowing and saving to keep spending more steady. Fed intervention signals a lack of equilibrium. Per your OP, to he change in interest rate has directly affected your spending behavior, you will not spend money on the your refi or buy a business. The bank now has less money to lend, and the seller of that business does not have the cash you would have otherwise given him to make another investment.
Further, increased transaction volume makes markets more efficient. If a buyer of raw goods has steady orders, competition develops on the supply side. The availability of more supply encourages competition on the demand/production side. The increase in competition on both supply/demand sides is good for the end consumer, as they should be able to find not only fair priced goods, but available substitutes. Thus, they purchase more and the upstream engine keeps revving.
Lastly, and I believe most importantly, volume of transactions creates tax revenue. If one wants to buy a good, they must earn enough income to do so, which of course is taxed. When they buy that good, they are taxed on the purchase and the seller taxed on the revenue. The seller buys more goods, they are taxed on the purchase, the seller on the sale, the shippers pay tax/tariffs on freight, etc. Obviously, taxes are primarily driven by transactions, not on tax rates; don’t let any idiot tell you the trickle down economy is not real, it’s science. Unfortunately, we (our politicians) have built this house of cards that our economy is very dependent on public spending, which has been made possible by low interest rates. If transaction volume decreases (lower rates), tax revenue will decrease, in order to sustain these public spending programs, even more will have to be funded by borrowing, which will now be more expensive due to interest charges. In other words, our economy has been propped up artificially by government spending that has increased to levels not possible to sustain in a high inflation/rate environment.
In an ideal state, there should be a natural equilibrium in the rate between borrowing and saving to keep spending more steady. Fed intervention signals a lack of equilibrium. Per your OP, to he change in interest rate has directly affected your spending behavior, you will not spend money on the your refi or buy a business. The bank now has less money to lend, and the seller of that business does not have the cash you would have otherwise given him to make another investment.
Further, increased transaction volume makes markets more efficient. If a buyer of raw goods has steady orders, competition develops on the supply side. The availability of more supply encourages competition on the demand/production side. The increase in competition on both supply/demand sides is good for the end consumer, as they should be able to find not only fair priced goods, but available substitutes. Thus, they purchase more and the upstream engine keeps revving.
Lastly, and I believe most importantly, volume of transactions creates tax revenue. If one wants to buy a good, they must earn enough income to do so, which of course is taxed. When they buy that good, they are taxed on the purchase and the seller taxed on the revenue. The seller buys more goods, they are taxed on the purchase, the seller on the sale, the shippers pay tax/tariffs on freight, etc. Obviously, taxes are primarily driven by transactions, not on tax rates; don’t let any idiot tell you the trickle down economy is not real, it’s science. Unfortunately, we (our politicians) have built this house of cards that our economy is very dependent on public spending, which has been made possible by low interest rates. If transaction volume decreases (lower rates), tax revenue will decrease, in order to sustain these public spending programs, even more will have to be funded by borrowing, which will now be more expensive due to interest charges. In other words, our economy has been propped up artificially by government spending that has increased to levels not possible to sustain in a high inflation/rate environment.
Posted on 7/29/22 at 10:31 am to Chucktown_Badger
quote:
wage-price spiral
This takes my point further. Wages are almost always the last variable to be corrected. Price of fuel goes up, price of goods go up, then you have to pay the truck driver more to deliver those goods so he can buy them when he gets home. Obviously, wages have to be corrected in order to keep up with rising prices, or transactions will come to a halt. People will move around more to chase those higher wages and business will experience more disruption delivering goods/services (You are here). Higher wages will shrink margins. Some to the point of making it impractical to continue to stay in business.
Unfortunately, all signs point to us being in serious economic trouble, and to top it off we have a presidential admin that is refusing to admit it and congress focusing on the humiliation of the prior president and social projects that will never offer a return for taxpayers. They are clearly planning on continuing their behavior, rather than like you, admitting they have the economic understanding of a five year old and need some help
Posted on 7/29/22 at 10:34 am to Morpheus
quote:
How does raising Interest rates reign in already High inflation on product goods? What should be the goal we(fed) want to achieve here? What should we expect?
quote:You answered your own question.
Personally, I was going to refi in 2023. Not happening now.(Due to rates)
Was going to look at buying a small business. On hold now.(Due to rates)
Posted on 7/29/22 at 10:52 am to NC_Tigah
Yes, and I understand that goal by the Fed. I'm just trying to figure out in my tiny little brain how taking money out of circulation helps lower the Inflation problem.
Posted on 7/29/22 at 11:21 am to Morpheus
Like 6 people work, which I’m one of them
Everybody else is on food stamps
Everybody else is on food stamps
Posted on 7/29/22 at 11:27 am to Morpheus
Very quickly - Higher interest rates temper demand and when demand decreases price usually goes down overall. It may not do much to supply given the already present supply constraints but may have an impact.
Posted on 7/29/22 at 11:30 am to Morpheus
Essentially if there is less money in circulation, people spend less. Businesses need to keep customers so they need to drop their prices to account for less spending, otherwise risk taking major losses. So in order to keep cash flow going, goods now cost less, or at least stop going up, which curbs inflation.
Posted on 7/29/22 at 12:05 pm to Morpheus
quote:
1) How does raising Interest rates reign in already High inflation on product goods?
TL;DR - As others have said, raising rates means less borrowing and more saving (by both businesses and consumers) as it becomes more expensive to borrow money.
Longer version:
The US Dollar (USD) is a fiat currency, that is a currency whose value isn't tied directly to the price of something else (like an ounce of gold, for example). This means that the more USDs there are in circulation, the less value each has.
One of the ways the Fed injects money into the economy is by loaning money to banks (the other is buying US debt, aka securities). Banks have to keep a certain amount of money available at all times (their reserve), so if there is more demand than they can meet without dipping into their reserves, they borrow from the Fed. They factor in how much the Fed is charging them into the loan they are making to you or I (or our businesses). As the Fed raises the rate they charge banks, banks also raise rates on what they charge you and I (but not always at a 1:1 ratio).
By keeping rates extremely low for so long they've devalued the Dollar (the taking of more Dollars to buy the same item due to the value of the Dollar going down is "inflation").
The following is paraphrased from an example I once heard given by the late, great Dr. Walter E. Williams.
quote:
Let’s say you’re walking down an old dirt road and you’re starving. I don’t mean “I missed my mid-morning snack and am simply faaaaaamished”. That’s merely “hungry”. I’m talking about “I haven’t had a single morsel of food in over a week and my organs might begin shutting down on me soon”. I mean starving.
As you do your best to ignore that ever-present gnawing in your stomach, in the distance you notice a sign on the road. As you get closer you see that it’s advertising “24-HOUR ALL YOU CAN EAT BURGER BUFFET – ONLY $1.00!” and beyond that you see the restaurant in the distance.
You begin to feel hope, but then quickly remember that you are flat broke. You don’t have a dollar, you don’t have even a penny.
You become even more dispirited.
As you continue to trudge along the road, contemplating your eventual death from starvation, you see a crumbled, dirty dollar bill on the side of the road.
In that moment, how valuable to you is that dollar bill? Pretty freaking important, I would guess. That crusty old dollar literally means you get to continue living.
Now, imagine that entire exact scenario except that instead of being broke you’re pulling a wagon filled with dollar bills all stacked and bound but easily accessible. How valuable to you is that dirty, crumpled roadside dollar now? Would you even bother to pick it up?
That difference in attitudes towards that roadside dollar is the inflationary effect of too much money in an economy.
So by raising the rates, the Fed is essentially removing Dollars from that wagon you're pulling, thus making each remaining Dollar worth more... eventually.
quote:
What should be the goal we(fed) want to achieve here? What should we expect?
The Fed has stated their goal is to have their target range at 3%-4% by the end of the year (currently it's at 2.25%-2.5% LINK). If they stick to their goal then we can expect another .5%-1.75% in increases before the end of the year (they have two more meetings this year, Sept and Nov, in which to do this).
This post was edited on 7/29/22 at 12:39 pm
Posted on 7/29/22 at 12:12 pm to Morpheus
quote:
1) How does raising Interest rates reign in already High inflation on product goods? What should be the goal we(fed) want to achieve here? What should we expect?
Raising rates is suppose to ultimately slow the economy by reducing spending. When products don’t sell because stop buying, it should lower prices
As it stands though, we’re not seeing a real slowdown in peoples buying habits.
They want to slow it but not kill it so they have to be careful about how much they raise rates.
Posted on 7/29/22 at 12:23 pm to Morpheus
quote:
I'm just trying to figure out in my tiny little brain how taking money out of circulation helps lower the Inflation problem.
With less money in circulation Santa can no longer pay these high prices for materials for his elves to make toys. Since Santa won't pay the high prices the material suppliers have to charge less in order to sell their inventory
Posted on 7/29/22 at 12:31 pm to Morpheus
So there is an invisible hand within central banking. But it’s up your arse and you can feel it, painfully.
Posted on 7/29/22 at 4:17 pm to Morpheus
youtube - understanding the fed
Its a cartoon, but give it a chance. It's a great starting place for people.
Its a cartoon, but give it a chance. It's a great starting place for people.
This post was edited on 7/29/22 at 4:21 pm
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