re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

Thought this was pretty interesting and relevant to NBIS.

who-is-buying-and-selling-gpu-compute

Only 9.8% of Ramp's SaaS customers bought GPU compute over the last year, but the amount spent on GPU compute was already almost 80% of what was spent on AI applications.

Basically a relatively small number of companies are spending a shite ton on compute right now.

They also track Nebius in the neocloud category. NBIS is only at 8% based on number of customers, but I don't think that tells you much considering Ramp is counting customers and not dollars. Nebius so far has gone after fewer massive contracts vs a bunch of smaller users.

Probably the more interesting part for NBIS is the warning in the article. There are a ton of these neocloud companies popping up and building capacity. If demand keeps growing they can all probably make a lot of money. If GPU supply catches up and pricing gets crushed, obviously that's a different story.

Still think the biggest thing to watch with NBIS is what they are getting per MW on these new contracts and if they can continue filling the capacity as fast as they build it.

Pretty good independent data point for the bull case IMO.

Interesting read, but the future of NBIS may lie with there software offerings seperate from their bare metal. Partner owned infrastructure could lower the capex risk for NBIS while giving partners control over their own GPUs.

NBIS Partner Owned Infrastructure

This is why the software matters as much as the bare metal. If NBIS can make more profit without the capex risk of having to build a data center, they will mitigate the biggest downside of the the neocloud business model.

Thanks BB88 on the call recommendation. Bought 2 300 Nov calls and 1 360 Feb calls yesterday. Sold the 2 Nov calls today for 49% profit and holding the Feb call because it is only up 33%. Looking for a 50%+ profit on it.

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B, looking for your thoughts on medical AI? ive seen Cunha discussing some on twitter. have you dug into that?

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You and me both. That sector got hot lately and subsequently got crushed today.

ABCL, IBRX, and ABSI are big names there. But TEM is probably the most well known (has ai in the title).

I’m in BLLN. My only pharma play right now. Also had got hit hard today. I averaged down. Not a huge position. Just 50 shares.

You still in GRAB? Sorry to post different topic

Dip and rip to $260 would be nice.
I wonder what the short float is right now.

Q3 will be a fun call…

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The dueling narratives are wild -

"We ran the cycle and discovered that we were pricing too low. We are now pricing ... dynamically based on an algorithms" ... auctions. (Boroditsky)

"Texas halts data center connections amid concerns about "ghost" demand" (Reuters)

"Rothschild & Co. analyst Alex Haissl argues that AI compute pricing may be artificially elevated by heavily funded AI startups willing to sign expensive compute contracts."

IMO - NBIS has a pretty good track record of candor/accuracy in its communications with the market.

One call option contract gives you the right to buy 100 shares at the strike prices available to you in the options chain by the dates offered by the Chicago board of options. Or something like that…

Options traditionally expire on the third Friday of every month, but frequency has increased.

Nebius has some expiring tomorrow.

Would you like to reserve your chance to buy 100 shares of NBIS tomorrow at $300 a share?
Since it’s trading around $220, probably not. As a result, those $300 strikes are essentially worthless.

While they’re were going for $25 to 30 per contract earlier in the week, today one went for $3…a total lottery ticket because tomorrow they go to $0 for good.

Any of that make sense?