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Why is the Football Power Index so high on LSU?
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:16 am
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:16 am
ESPN's FPI has LSU rated as the #8 team in the country.
Our resume shows that we have the 7th hardest remaining schedule in the country and they also have Alabama, Tennessee and Ole Miss ranked in the top 10.
Despite this difficult schedule, they have LSU going to a NY6 bowl given their W/L prediction. According to the FPI, it predicts we finish the season 10-2 with our only remaining loss coming to Alabama. This is their predicted outcomes for our remaining games:
58.3% chance to beat #8 Tennessee
70.6% chance to beat @ Florida
60.5% chance to beat #9 Ole Miss
20.0% chance to beat #1 Alabama
72.3% chance to beat @ Arkansas
90.6% chacne to beat UAB
69.3% chance to beat @ Texas 8&4
To finish the year 10-2 would be an amazing season given where we were at the beginning of 202 and a tremendous turnaround job by CBK, but why is it that the FPI is higher on LSU than all but the most delusional rant posters? Are us realists just being 'negatigers'?
Our resume shows that we have the 7th hardest remaining schedule in the country and they also have Alabama, Tennessee and Ole Miss ranked in the top 10.
Despite this difficult schedule, they have LSU going to a NY6 bowl given their W/L prediction. According to the FPI, it predicts we finish the season 10-2 with our only remaining loss coming to Alabama. This is their predicted outcomes for our remaining games:
58.3% chance to beat #8 Tennessee
70.6% chance to beat @ Florida
60.5% chance to beat #9 Ole Miss
20.0% chance to beat #1 Alabama
72.3% chance to beat @ Arkansas
90.6% chacne to beat UAB
69.3% chance to beat @ Texas 8&4
To finish the year 10-2 would be an amazing season given where we were at the beginning of 202 and a tremendous turnaround job by CBK, but why is it that the FPI is higher on LSU than all but the most delusional rant posters? Are us realists just being 'negatigers'?
16
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:17 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
ESPN FPI is always way off
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:19 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
Remember when they had us at #4 or something before the National Championship game in 2019? lmao
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:19 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
58.3% chance to beat #8 Tennessee
70.6% chance to beat @ Florida
60.5% chance to beat #9 Ole Miss
20.0% chance to beat #1 Alabama
72.3% chance to beat @ Arkansas
90.6% chacne to beat UAB
69.3% chance to beat @ Texas 8&4
Tennessee, home game and they have a shite defense. Makes sense.
Florida is a one trick pony. Contain Richardson and you're good.
Ole Miss is a bit of a head scratcher, but their defense is spotty.
Arkansas proved it is still Arkansas. I wouldn't say it's a 70+% chance to win though. More like 50/50
A&M is an absolute dumpster fire. Jimbo is on the hottest seat in the SEC (but they can't afford to fire him)
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:21 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
The odds we go 10-2, assuming those win % chances are accurate, is approximately 0%
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:23 am to ibleedprplngld
quote:
(but they can't afford to fire him)
Oh yes they can!!
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:30 am to Yeti_Chaser
quote:
ESPN FPI is always way off
I figured the same thing but dug into it a little more. It is one of the most accurate computer model predictors in CFB year over year though since its inception. It is the only model to finish in the top 15 7 of the last 8 years.
2022: 6/50
2021: 28/54
2020: 3/44
2019: 15/63
2018: 6/64
2017: 13/61
2016: 13/64
2015: 12/68
https://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:31 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
We good again baws 
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:33 am to Bottom9
quote:
Remember when they had us at #4 or something before the National Championship game in 2019? lmao
I think they still had us at #2 AFTER the National Championship game
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:39 am to holdem Tiger
quote:
The odds we go 10-2, assuming those win % chances are accurate, is approximately 0%
Right. Those %’s actually show that FPI expects LSU to win around 4.4 more games, not 6. So 8-4 or 9-3 is what it predicts, not 10-2.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:41 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
but why is it that the FPI is higher on LSU than all but the most delusional rant posters?
It's an algorithm that rewards Ws without much regard for the manner in which the W was achieved. And if you just look at the numbers with regard to the order of teams chances to win/lose most likely to least likely, it lines up pretty well.
90.6% chance to beat UAB
72.3% chance to beat @ Arkansas
70.6% chance to beat @ Florida
69.3% chance to beat @ Texas A&M
60.5% chance to beat #9 Ole Miss
58.3% chance to beat #8 Tennessee
20.0% chance to beat #1 Alabama
I might flip a couple of those but only marginally. A&M still getting way too much love and Arkansas worries me more than Florida or A&M TBH.
Specific chances to win will change every week.
quote:
Are us realists just being 'negatigers'?
Every pessimist I know calls himself a realist, particularly when someone mentions how negative they come across.
But I also know a few guys who are actual realists.
Me?
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:53 am to mdomingue
And honestly as vulnerable as we've seen on offense this year, if you look around the landscape just about every team has shown some vulnerabilities. Tenn needed OT to beat Pitt and let Anthony Richardson throw for 450 yds on them. Ole Miss was outplayed at home by Kentucky who's the only non-cupcake team they've played this year. This past weekend, the only team that played worse compared to their opponent than Ole Miss vs. UK and still won was GT over Pitt
I'm not saying we go 6-1 the rest of the way but our future schedule honestly isn't as menacing as it looked 2-3 weeks ago. We have more than a puncher's chance in every game we play except for probably Bama.
I'm not saying we go 6-1 the rest of the way but our future schedule honestly isn't as menacing as it looked 2-3 weeks ago. We have more than a puncher's chance in every game we play except for probably Bama.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:54 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
10-2 and second in the SEC West would be far beyond any rational person's preseason expectations.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 11:19 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
negatigers
Your walking the line with that one
Posted on 10/4/22 at 11:20 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
Despite this difficult schedule, they have LSU going to a NY6 bowl given their W/L prediction. According to the FPI, it predicts we finish the season 10-2 with our only remaining loss coming to Alabama. This is their predicted outcomes for our remaining games:
58.3% chance to beat #8 Tennessee
70.6% chance to beat @ Florida
60.5% chance to beat #9 Ole Miss
20.0% chance to beat #1 Alabama
72.3% chance to beat @ Arkansas
90.6% chacne to beat UAB
69.3% chance to beat @ Texas 8&4
That’s not how those odds work. Probability of beating every team except Alabama is the product of all other win probabilities. That’s an 11.3% chance to win all of the games where FPI has us as a favorite.
Probability to achieve a certain record is considerably more complicated because of the multiple outs. For example you could beat Alabama but lose to Tennessee. But by my math it’s roughly 17-18% probability to finish 10-2 or better given the individual game win probabilities above.
Most likely overall records given those individual game probabilities are 8-4 and 9-3, with a ~60% chance to finish with one of those two records.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 11:29 am to Yeti_Chaser
To be fair, every major advanced metric nerds algorithms out there have LSU pretty high, not saying I agree, just pointing it out that it’s not just ESPNs FPI
The below was after week 4 (the post week 5 one hasn’t been posted yet)
The below was after week 4 (the post week 5 one hasn’t been posted yet)
This post was edited on 10/4/22 at 11:37 am
Posted on 10/4/22 at 11:44 am to Timeoday
quote:
Oh yes they can!!
Can but won’t is there thing. They would also have to risk going with an “up and coming” coach as no established coach will go there now.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 11:44 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
Have you seen the balls on this team?
Posted on 10/4/22 at 12:50 pm to ibleedprplngld
quote:
A&M is an absolute dumpster fire. Jimbo is on the hottest seat in the SEC (but they can't afford to fire him)
texas is good at figuring out ways to get rid of people. they will start to make him feel uncomfortable. they will force him to hire an OC and if he balks at that they will start to take his NIL money away where he cant get recruits and it will be on his name where he will start losing to where he will want to look else where.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 1:14 pm to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
I think they still had us at #2 AFTER the National Championship game
#3 actually
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