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re: Where LSU fits in the top 8 national seed picture
Posted on 5/27/23 at 6:02 pm to DRock88
Posted on 5/27/23 at 6:02 pm to DRock88
quote:
11-13 could be Auburn, Alabama, and Kentucky. Give me whatever is paired with Kentucky. Second pick would be Bama. I really don't want to see Auburn again unless it's in Omaha.
Right now I'm leaning towards Kentucky at 9-10, without knowing the outcomes of the rest of the day. Bama/Auburn seems likely. I'm not scared of either. With the right 2 seed, both could struggle to get out of their regional. Have to think that if Southern Miss doesn't host, they will be a top tier 2 seed. Sending them to the lower of Bama/Auburn would make more sense than LSU.
2
Posted on 5/27/23 at 6:22 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
I'm not scared of Auburn, they just wouldn't be my first choice. Same with Bama. I think both present some problems for us that we'd have to prove we could handle.
Posted on 5/27/23 at 6:29 pm to Broski
5
Posted on 5/27/23 at 6:29 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
I definitely wouldn't be mad if we win our regional and get matched up with Kentucky or Alabama in the supers.
Posted on 5/27/23 at 6:41 pm to DRock88
quote:
I think both present some problems for us that we'd have to prove we could handle
I think this is to be expected from any team that reaches a super regional though.
Posted on 5/27/23 at 7:14 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
I think this is to be expected from any team that reaches a super regional though.
Mostly only SEC teams have seen Skenes, though, and/or have had to navigate our lineup a few times. I would prefer facing a team with little to no book, man on man. Kentucky, unlike Bama and Auburn, has far less to offer from a talent standpoint if we look at possible conference opponents for supers.
Posted on 5/27/23 at 7:26 pm to DRock88
quote:
Mostly only SEC teams have seen Skenes, though, and/or have had to navigate our lineup a few times. I would prefer facing a team with little to no book, man on man. Kentucky, unlike Bama and Auburn, has far less to offer from a talent standpoint if we look at possible conference opponents for supers
Can't really argue with any of that. Solid points.
Posted on 5/27/23 at 7:49 pm to drizztiger
quote:
Awesome post. Would read again.
I did that for you - it won't get any better - leave it to die without any more attention.
Posted on 5/27/23 at 8:19 pm to ChineseBandit58
My predictions as of 5/27 night:
1. Wake Forest
2. Florida
3. Arkansas
(Splitting hairs between UF and Arkansas. It could go either way. UF has more Q1 wins. Arky is 1 spot ahead in RPI currently)
4. Clemson
5. Vandy
6. LSU
(I think Clemson is clear cut #4 now. Flip a coin between LSU and Vandy. Vandy has SOS. LSU has RPI and Q1 record. I'm just guessing that the committee awards Vandy's late success over LSU's late struggles)
7. Miami
8. Coastal Carolina
(I'm stumped here. Stanford took a stumble. I don't see how they can justify them here at this point. Miami deserves to be the third ACC team. Big 12/10/Pac has literally no deserving candidates, so I'm throwing Coastal here assuming they win the Sunbelt. If they don't, I may have to do something crazy and insert another SEC team)
9. Alabama
10. Kentucky
11. Stanford
12. South Carolina
13. Virginia
14. Auburn
15. Oklahoma St
16. Indiana St
1. Wake Forest
2. Florida
3. Arkansas
(Splitting hairs between UF and Arkansas. It could go either way. UF has more Q1 wins. Arky is 1 spot ahead in RPI currently)
4. Clemson
5. Vandy
6. LSU
(I think Clemson is clear cut #4 now. Flip a coin between LSU and Vandy. Vandy has SOS. LSU has RPI and Q1 record. I'm just guessing that the committee awards Vandy's late success over LSU's late struggles)
7. Miami
8. Coastal Carolina
(I'm stumped here. Stanford took a stumble. I don't see how they can justify them here at this point. Miami deserves to be the third ACC team. Big 12/10/Pac has literally no deserving candidates, so I'm throwing Coastal here assuming they win the Sunbelt. If they don't, I may have to do something crazy and insert another SEC team)
9. Alabama
10. Kentucky
11. Stanford
12. South Carolina
13. Virginia
14. Auburn
15. Oklahoma St
16. Indiana St
Posted on 5/27/23 at 8:30 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
I'm just guessing that the committee awards Vandy's late success over LSU's late struggles)
Vandy and LSU both lost 2 of their last 3 series in conference and Vandy lost 3 of their last 5. I don’t really think there’s a material difference in how they finished the season unless they give significant weight to the tournament.
Posted on 5/27/23 at 8:39 pm to MikeTheTiger71
quote:
Vandy and LSU both lost 2 of their last 3 series in conference and Vandy lost 3 of their last 5. I don’t really think there’s a material difference in how they finished the season unless they give significant weight to the tournament
Vandy has metrics they are ahead of LSU. LSU has metrics they are ahead of Vandy. No head to head. It's a guess as to which ones they weigh heaviest.
Also, Vandy may have a SEC tourney title. That's what makes me tip the scales their way. I wouldn't be shocked if they are flipped either though.
This post was edited on 5/27/23 at 8:40 pm
Posted on 5/27/23 at 9:14 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
Also, Vandy may have a SEC tourney title. That's what makes me tip the scales their way. I wouldn't be shocked if they are flipped either though.
If Vandy wins tomorrow, they will be 23-12 overall against SEC competition vs 20-12 for LSU. That should give them the advantage. At 22-13, it’s really a toss up and up to which metrics they value more.
Posted on 5/27/23 at 9:16 pm to MikeTheTiger71
Ill let ya in on a secret, the committee will make their decision before tomorrows game is final. They do basically every year. So id compare things as is
Posted on 5/27/23 at 9:25 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
My guess at the top 8
1 wake
2florida
3arkansas
4clemson
5lsu
6vandy
7stanford
8coastal
Ill be floored if stanford isnt given a top 8 because of geography and running away with the pac title
And if an acc team sneaks in there, i think itll be virginia
1 wake
2florida
3arkansas
4clemson
5lsu
6vandy
7stanford
8coastal
Ill be floored if stanford isnt given a top 8 because of geography and running away with the pac title
And if an acc team sneaks in there, i think itll be virginia
This post was edited on 5/27/23 at 9:27 pm
Posted on 5/27/23 at 9:40 pm to josh336
Josh, when will the committee make the announcement? Is it Monday?
Posted on 5/27/23 at 9:48 pm to josh336
quote:
Ill let ya in on a secret, the committee will make their decision before tomorrows game is final. They do basically every year. So id compare things as is
That’s a good point. I think Vandy probably deserves a higher seed, but LSU does have the advantage in RPI, Q1 WPct, road record, and overall record, so there’s a decent chance LSU ends up higher. I do wonder if they will have the SEC teams at 2-5 so that there are 2 on each side of the bracket for Omaha.
Posted on 5/27/23 at 9:51 pm to DRock88
quote:
I'm not scared of Auburn, they just wouldn't be my first choice. Same with Bama. I think both present some problems for us that we'd have to prove we could handle.
Same here. I'd rather not play an SEC teams at all that already knows our personnel well. But I like our chances against anyone at home.
Posted on 5/27/23 at 9:54 pm to josh336
quote:
Ill let ya in on a secret, the committee will make their decision before tomorrows game is final. They do basically every year. So id compare things as is
Exactly. They know the host sites already. Nothing tomorrow will change that. The main thing they are holding out for are stolen bids like someone like Tulane potentially winning their tournament.
I think Stanford will get one even though I'm not sure they deserve it. The only thing I'm holding out on Miami as a top 8 right now is that Virginia swept them during the regular season and I'm not sure how they'll weigh that.
This post was edited on 5/27/23 at 9:57 pm
Posted on 5/27/23 at 10:10 pm to TigerCub
And virginia had a better conference record pre tourney
Posted on 5/27/23 at 10:13 pm to josh336
quote:
And virginia had a better conference record pre tourney
Yeah but it was 19-11 compared to 18-12 not much difference there.
My guess at the top 8 is
Wake, Florida, Arkansas, Clemson, LSU, Vandy, Stanford, 3rd ACC team.
I think Coastal knocked themselevs out losing twice to ULL today.
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