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Posted on 5/14/24 at 6:47 pm to Salviati
quote:
DraftKings has set lines for seven of LSU's games: LSU is favored in six of the seven games:
Week 1
LSU vs. USC in Las Vegas
Tigers favored by 6 points
Week 7
Ole Miss vs. LSU in Tiger Stadium
Tigers favored by 2.5 points
Week 8
LSU at Arkansas in Fayetteville
Tigers favored by 9 points
Week 9
LSU at Texas A&M in College Station
Aggies favored by 3 points
Week 11
Alabama vs. LSU in Tiger Stadium
Tigers favored by 1 point
Week 12
LSU at Florida in Gainesville
Tigers favored by 5.5 points
Week 14
Oklahoma vs. LSU in Tiger Stadium
Tigers favored by 5 points
quote:
A reasonable prediction would be that LSU goes 11-1.
Let me preface this by saying, first, I’m mostly optimistic about this year’s team. I think the defense improves tremendously with better scheme & coaching, and I think our offense will take a step back but still be able to compete with anyone we play.
That being said, 11-1 is nowhere near a reasonable expectation with those spreads. Being favored in 11 games does not mean that winning all 11 of those games is the most likely outcome.
If you play 10 games as a favorite with 70% win probability in each, the most likely outcome statistically is 7-3, not 10-0.
Just pointing out a statistical gripe I have with using chalk to project win totals.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 7:36 pm to DalenSA
quote:
Anything under 10 wins is a disappointment
I think you are being honest.
Of course that has nothing to do with a realistic view of the situation.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 7:38 pm to Lsuhoohoo
quote:
8-4. I'm not buying in on the defense with the holes at DT and likely below par starters at LB, S. Can't at this point count on the offense being able to carry the whole team.
If our defense is the same quality as last year we wont win 8 games.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 7:51 pm to cbree88
USC (Vegas) - W (but, we better come to play...)
Nicholls - W
@South Carolina - W
UCLA - W
South Alabama - W
BYE
Ole Miss - L
@Arkansas - W
@A&M - W
BYE
Alabama - W
@Florida - L
Vanderbilt - W
OU - W
I think 10-2...but 9-3 is certainly in play. The Opening game is a coin toss. Kelly has not really shown that he has the team ready for week 1...even going back to ND. I hope we can break that this year. A&M is overrated as always. Ole Miss is for real this year. Florida will be much improved and it is tough to play in the Swamp, a week after Bama. Bama will have a significant drop off this year though with Saban gone....10-2 looks possible for sure.
Can't wait to cheer on the Tigers in Columbia (SC) on Sept 14th!
Nicholls - W
@South Carolina - W
UCLA - W
South Alabama - W
BYE
Ole Miss - L
@Arkansas - W
@A&M - W
BYE
Alabama - W
@Florida - L
Vanderbilt - W
OU - W
I think 10-2...but 9-3 is certainly in play. The Opening game is a coin toss. Kelly has not really shown that he has the team ready for week 1...even going back to ND. I hope we can break that this year. A&M is overrated as always. Ole Miss is for real this year. Florida will be much improved and it is tough to play in the Swamp, a week after Bama. Bama will have a significant drop off this year though with Saban gone....10-2 looks possible for sure.
Can't wait to cheer on the Tigers in Columbia (SC) on Sept 14th!
Posted on 5/14/24 at 8:26 pm to cbree88
9wins a bowl game. Outside chance of a 10 game season
Plus a bowl game win
Plus a bowl game win
Posted on 5/15/24 at 12:03 pm to cbree88
11-1
Posted on 5/15/24 at 12:13 pm to cbree88
Gotta have improvement on defense.
Mandatory .
If not 7-4 is likely
Mandatory .
If not 7-4 is likely
Posted on 5/15/24 at 1:31 pm to cbree88
If we can't win at least 9 shut the program down
Posted on 5/15/24 at 1:53 pm to HattiesburgTiger5439
quote:
passing game will be better
that would be very impressive considering we had the #3 passing offense in the country last year (only 8 yards per game behind #1)
Posted on 5/15/24 at 1:55 pm to cbree88
10 wins
Posted on 5/15/24 at 1:56 pm to cbree88
16-0
Posted on 5/15/24 at 9:05 pm to cbree88
10-2
Losses to Ole Miss and Alabama
Losses to Ole Miss and Alabama
Posted on 5/15/24 at 9:20 pm to cbree88
9-3 or 8-4
Posted on 6/18/24 at 2:43 pm to cbree88
USC . . . . . . . . . . . . -6 . . . 0.70
Nicholls . . . . . . . . .-30 . . . 0.95
South Carolina . . . . -7 . . . 0.70
UCLA . . . . . . . . . . -10 . . . 0.70
South Alabama .. . -30 . . . 0.95
Ole Miss . . . . . . . -2.5 . . . 0.55
Arkansas . . . . . . . . -9 . . . 0.70
Texas A&M . . . . . . . 3 . . . 0.45
Alabama . . . . . . .. . -1 . . . 0.50
Florida . . . . . . . .. -5.5 . . . 0.70
Vanderbilt . . . . . .. -25 . . . 0.95
Oklahoma . . . .. . . . -5 . . . 0.60
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.45 Wins
Nicholls . . . . . . . . .-30 . . . 0.95
South Carolina . . . . -7 . . . 0.70
UCLA . . . . . . . . . . -10 . . . 0.70
South Alabama .. . -30 . . . 0.95
Ole Miss . . . . . . . -2.5 . . . 0.55
Arkansas . . . . . . . . -9 . . . 0.70
Texas A&M . . . . . . . 3 . . . 0.45
Alabama . . . . . . .. . -1 . . . 0.50
Florida . . . . . . . .. -5.5 . . . 0.70
Vanderbilt . . . . . .. -25 . . . 0.95
Oklahoma . . . .. . . . -5 . . . 0.60
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.45 Wins
Posted on 6/18/24 at 2:57 pm to cbree88
Vegas seems to think 11-1 so I am going with 10-2. Because part of our Defensive Issues last year were scheme with a Moron DC. The fact that baker has a brain tells me that the D will be better. Offense will inevitably take a step back but will still be an Offense that averages 35 a game.
Posted on 6/18/24 at 3:01 pm to CharlestonTiger
USC (Vegas) - L (Kelly loses openers)
Nicholls - W
@South Carolina - W
UCLA - W
South Alabama - W
BYE
Ole Miss - L
@Arkansas - W
@A&M - W
BYE
Alabama - L
@Florida - W
Vanderbilt - W
OU - 50/50
8-4-Worst
9-3-Best
Sincerely hope I'm wrong
Posted on 6/18/24 at 3:12 pm to cbree88
9-3
Offense is good, just not as great as last season. Defense is not great, but not as terrible as last season.
We split USC, Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma. (I hope we beat USC so every national loudmouth doesn't spend Labor Day beating up on Brian Kelly)
We lose one game we were favored to win. Or we go 1-3 against USC, Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma.
Either way, we are set up for a big 25 and 26.
Offense is good, just not as great as last season. Defense is not great, but not as terrible as last season.
We split USC, Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma. (I hope we beat USC so every national loudmouth doesn't spend Labor Day beating up on Brian Kelly)
We lose one game we were favored to win. Or we go 1-3 against USC, Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma.
Either way, we are set up for a big 25 and 26.
Posted on 6/18/24 at 3:47 pm to timbo
BK’s history is that he cannot get his team ready for a real season opener.
Defense may be horrible again this season.
9-3 may be a gift with this roster in the DL trenches.
Defense may be horrible again this season.
9-3 may be a gift with this roster in the DL trenches.
This post was edited on 6/18/24 at 3:55 pm
Posted on 6/18/24 at 4:13 pm to cbree88
quote:
The interior of our defense is awful and probably a downgrade even when compared to our horrible 2023 defense. Hopefully coaching can make up for the huge void of talent. Not only does our interior suck, but we still have some big question marks at the various defensive back positions. If Major Burns and Sage Ryan continue to see significant reps, our secondary is in big trouble.
I don't see how we can be worse than last year, but we shall see. I'm holding out hope that at least part of the problem was horrible coaching by House and his staff, and that Blake Baker and his guys can mitigate that to at least some extent.
quote:
Sorry guys. There’s always next year. Hopefully Kelly can get our roster woes fixed by 2025
Kelly has done what he can so far to fix the problems. You don't pay a coach the kind of money he's getting to hope and wait until next year.
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