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Started By
Message
re: It's time to get smarter about hiring HC's, starting with cheap talent having 90%+ W rates
Posted on 10/23/25 at 7:45 am to Footballguy1800
Posted on 10/23/25 at 7:45 am to Footballguy1800
quote:
If he sucks, buyout is easily manageable, sub $1 mil. You can continue to do this until maybe the 2nd or 3rd one works. That's only if the 1st one doesn't work, which it could.. This is at most a 4 year process.
Whole bunch of assumptions built in to this.
You’re assuming that given a pool of 3-4 top D2 coaches, one is guaranteed to be an upgrade from Kelly and bring LSU to championship contender status. I don’t think this is true at all.
You’re assuming that each of those D2 candidates can be properly evaluated in a single season. This ignores roster turnover and player development.
You’re assuming that the roster turnover associated with that much staff turnover would not create a major problem for the program. That seems highly unlikely.
You’re assuming that a D2 coach with an extremely short leash is going to be able to assemble an elite coaching staff. Why is an elite coordinator going to want to leave a secure job for a potential 1-year gig?
You’re assuming that NIL/rev share mean recruiting doesn’t matter anymore. It might matter less today than it did a few years ago, but it still matters.
I think we should see a pivot from the 8-10 year $80-100MM deals to something more reasonable now that we have revenue sharing (the Cignetti contract has me questioning this, though..), but that doesn’t mean the answer is musical coaches. In reality, evaluating 4 new head coaches is likely to take at least 8-10 years unless some of them flame out spectacularly in year 1. And that evaluation is made more difficult by the negative impacts of all that turnover on the program.
1
Posted on 10/23/25 at 7:48 am to Footballguy1800
Current HBC’s that were promoted from assistant positions:
1. Kirby
2. Ryan Day
3. Dan Lanning
But somehow LSU considers itself too good to take a chance on an assistant because they hired Mike Archer in 1987.
1. Kirby
2. Ryan Day
3. Dan Lanning
But somehow LSU considers itself too good to take a chance on an assistant because they hired Mike Archer in 1987.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 7:50 am to BilJ
What you're describing is a far cry from OP, though.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 7:55 am to Complete Linebacking
quote:
Current HBC’s that were promoted from assistant positions:
1. Kirby
2. Ryan Day
3. Dan Lanning
You forgot Dabo.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 7:58 am to Footballguy1800
Great idea. We are 8-4 either way.
Also I would start singning 2 and 3 stars like Vandy and develop them for 4 to 6 years. Why will they stay 4 to 6 years - because they are not elite enough to transfer.. You get to build and develop a team instead of churning 40 blue chips every year and not a one of them know what the system is all about or what they are supposed to be doing on any given play. Use the portal for a mobile blue chip QB and 1 or 2 receivers and that's it. Vandy is the new college football model. A 3 star OL that knows what they are doing is better than a 5 star OL that doesn't eg. ARK.
Also I would start singning 2 and 3 stars like Vandy and develop them for 4 to 6 years. Why will they stay 4 to 6 years - because they are not elite enough to transfer.. You get to build and develop a team instead of churning 40 blue chips every year and not a one of them know what the system is all about or what they are supposed to be doing on any given play. Use the portal for a mobile blue chip QB and 1 or 2 receivers and that's it. Vandy is the new college football model. A 3 star OL that knows what they are doing is better than a 5 star OL that doesn't eg. ARK.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 8:01 am to SOL2
quote:
Great idea. We are 8-4 either way.
Also I would start singning 2 and 3 stars like Vandy and develop them for 4 to 6 years. Why will they stay 4 to 6 years - because they are not elite enough to transfer.. You get to build and develop a team instead of churning 40 blue chips every year and not a one of them know what the system is all about or what they are supposed to be doing on any given play. Use the portal for a mobile blue chip QB and 1 or 2 receivers and that's it. Vandy is the new college football model. A 3 star OL that knows what they are doing is better than a 5 star OL that doesn't eg. ARK.
that is not what vandy is doing.
jesus christ some of yall are dumb AF and just post every single thing that pops in your head.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 8:02 am to Footballguy1800
This is a terrible take on so many levels. We literally have the no. 1 transfer portal class and talent all over the field this year, but are struggling because of coaching. In hindsight it appears we missed a few years ago, but the correct hire would be worth every cent.
Look at Indiana and Vanderbilt, they have nowhere near the talent as we do, but have good coaching that is helping them punch well above their weight.
Look at Indiana and Vanderbilt, they have nowhere near the talent as we do, but have good coaching that is helping them punch well above their weight.
This post was edited on 10/23/25 at 8:04 am
Posted on 10/23/25 at 8:08 am to Lester Earl
quote:
There’s some middle ground between a 10yr contract and hiring the Ferris St coach, huh?
HEY!
Posted on 10/23/25 at 8:10 am to Footballguy1800
There are other avenues to hiring a head coach - somewhere in between the "we should hire a high school coach" and the "we need a proven whale". Look at Ryan Day, Lanning, Smart, Cignetti, etc. There is a long list of successfull coaches in college football that fell somewhere in between. I'm not saying that LSU will move on from BK this year or next, but if/when they are looking for a coach, it does not have to be the "proven winner at a high level whale type coach". There are assistants out there and there are lower level coaches out there that have proven to be big winners at a high level. It just takes due dilligence and great leadership to find that right guy. There are probably just as many success stories as there are failure stories on both sides of that argument.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 8:11 am to StrongOffer
So instead we get big game Brian for another 3 years.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 8:20 am to Footballguy1800
I'd settle for not trying to make a big trophy hire and trying to bring in a big name established coach. Identify an underrated coach like we did with Saban in 2000. Yeah, Saban was highly thought of, but he had not made his name yet. In fact about 3 years in, a lot of people were saying that he gets a lot of credit for doing nothing. But then by year 4 he had the pieces together and a process in place.
Also don't give coaches the big buyout until the 2 nd contract
Also don't give coaches the big buyout until the 2 nd contract
Posted on 10/23/25 at 8:29 am to TaderSalad
quote:
I got bad news for you.. we got the industry's biggest dumbass when it comes to hiring football coaches.
If you have lived in Louisiana for a period of time and haven't recognized the sheer greed or incompetence of Louisiana Politicians then you are either slow or haven't been paying attention.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 8:30 am to BilJ
quote:
ADs need to drop the "white whale hunt" dick measuring mentality and start treating coaching hires like the NFL
By ADs you mean Scott Woodward
quote:
NFL teams aren’t afraid to hire up and coming assistants and college programs should follow that playbook.
Some do UGA and OU: Richt Kirby, Venables, Riley Stoops were all first time head coaches. So were Muschamp and Chizik, Dabo and Coach O had never been coordinators. LSU apparently is permanently scarred by hiring Mike Archer and that not working out 40 years ago.
We also hired a non Power conference coach and a lesser Power C school that didn’t work Hallman and DiNardo but the ones we hired from Michigan State and Ok St did work
Unfortunately there’s no magic formula and even if you do go cheap on the hire, if he has any amount of success you will have to pony up or lose him.
This post was edited on 10/23/25 at 8:32 am
Posted on 10/23/25 at 8:31 am to Rouge
quote:
Florida did this with Billy Napier and we saw how that worked out
I’d rather be them right now, they’re hitting eject. We’re tied to a guy that’s pretty clearly not working out and our options are
1. Give him even more resources and hope for the best
2. Pay him and his staff that also have multi year guaranteed deals money to go away, pay a high amount for a new coach and staff, AND buy the players x
3. Do nothing and let him play out his deal until it’s feasible to buy him out.
I’m not saying coaching is unimportant but theses salaries need to be reigned in now that the schools and boosters are funding the key ingredient that decides your fate ultimately.
You could argue that’s always been the case but NIL brought a lot more money to the table once boosters/businesses didn’t have to essentially launder money to get it done.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 9:10 am to H-Town Tiger
Kind of my point, these hires are a pretty inexact science, even more so now.
On paper, both the Kelly and Riley hires should be succeeding but early returns aren’t great. It’s foolish paying someone as if success is a given so you throw guaranteed money and 10 years at them because you can’t imagine it failing.
And yes eventually you’ll have to pony up if they do win but that’s fine. I’m still not doing 10 year deals for anyone that hasn’t won multiple titles.
You can call their bluff on it, I doubt many would move on from a top tier program they just built up because you won’t give them 10 years
On paper, both the Kelly and Riley hires should be succeeding but early returns aren’t great. It’s foolish paying someone as if success is a given so you throw guaranteed money and 10 years at them because you can’t imagine it failing.
And yes eventually you’ll have to pony up if they do win but that’s fine. I’m still not doing 10 year deals for anyone that hasn’t won multiple titles.
You can call their bluff on it, I doubt many would move on from a top tier program they just built up because you won’t give them 10 years
Posted on 10/23/25 at 9:11 am to Footballguy1800
That's what Georgia did when it hired Donnan.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 9:27 am to Footballguy1800
quote:How many coaches do you think have a 90%+ win rate? And you think such a unicorn would be "cheap"?
cheap talent having 90%+ W rates
Posted on 10/23/25 at 9:42 am to Footballguy1800
We have the 3rd most expensive roster in the country apparently… don’t mean shite if you can’t coach
Posted on 10/23/25 at 9:50 am to BilJ
quote:
It’s foolish paying someone as if success is a given
What you are saying here is you can’t pay a new coach because no one is guaranteed success. And Even if he’s succeeded for you already there’s no guarantee it will continue. We have the obvious example of Ed O but there are others.
quote:
And yes eventually you’ll have to pony up if they do win
And how are we defining “win”? NC or just make the playoffs? Indiana made the playoffs once (basically beating no one) half way thru the next season have risen to #2 (did beat Oregon) and they are having the pony up. Btw there’s no guarantee he will continue making the playoffs at Indiana.
At the end of the day this is mostly 20/20 hindsight, if LSU was 7-0 we wouldn’t be having this conversation but we’re not so we are. I’m fine with ditching the “big game hunting”. Consider a young up and coming coordinator and he probably won’t cost as much at first. But unless he goes Bob Stoops and win the NC in year 2 you’re probably gonna have to pay him and give him a longer term deal.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 10:03 am to H-Town Tiger
Unique take. I say we just hire the head coach that wins the 5A State Championship for the year. We can probably get him for $150k and a Caniac combo.
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