re: I hate saying a bowl win gives us 10 wins. 10 REGULAR SEASON wins is the bar at LSU.

I see it completely different. I like to see the team improve and become more competitive. Offensively this team did just that, but defensively they did just the opposite. Wins and losses aside, I like to see progression as the season goes along because that is the metric being looked at as far as how the overall program is going.

With that said who wouldn't want to have a 10 win season?

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The bar has moved post Dinardo. This response is disingenuous. Do you not think the bar at LSU should be 10 regular season wins in a 12 game regular season?

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OK, let’s look at the post-Dinardo era since you brought it up. In the 22 years between Dinardo and Kelly, LSU won 10+ regular season games 8 times. 8 of 22 years, or 36%.

Here is the breakout by coach:
Saban: 1 of 5 years
Miles: 6 of 12 years
Orgeron: 1 of 5 years

The 12 game regular season doesn’t change much - Saban went 5-3 in conference play 3 of his 5 years. The one season you could argue might have been different with a 12 game schedule is 2004. Our OOC games that year were unranked Oregon State, Troy, and Arkansas State. Which brings me to my next point…

OOC opponents make a big difference. Kelly has gone 6-2 in conference play each of his first two years. In the 22 years between Dinardo and Kelly, LSU finished 6-2 or better in conference play 10 times.

Breakdown by coach:
Saban: 2 of 5 seasons
Miles: 6 of 12 seasons
Orgeron: 2 of 5 seasons.

We only finished better than 6-2 in conference play 4 times in those 22 years.

The biggest difference is the quality of our “big” OOC opponent. FSU finished #11 in the AP last year and is top 5 this year. Remember when I said we only finished with 10+ regular season wins 8 of 22 years? Well, only 3 of those 8 years included an OOC matchup against a team that was actually ranked at the end of the year. (Interestingly, those were 3 years we played for national titles.) The other 5 featured cupcakes OOC.

This idea that “10+ regular season wins is the floor” is completely ridiculous. It’s a standard that no coach in LSU history has met consistently. It might be a goal but it’s absurd to say that it’s an expectation - especially when you’re 1 year removed from 6-7.

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Is it though?

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5 wins is less than 10 wins. Of course it is

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OK, let’s look at the post-Dinardo era since you brought it up. In the 22 years between Dinardo and Kelly, LSU won 10+ regular season games 8 times. 8 of 22 years, or 36%.

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I think the fair way to play it is after Saban had our program built for sustained success (and 20 years). In that 20 years, we've also had two firings and a shortened COVID year that just doesn't count. That's 8/17 remaining years, but we can call it 8/19. That's almost half.

Also interesting is that Brian Kelly had 10 regular season wins 6 times at Notre Dame, including his last 4 years there. He knows how to get it done, it has been proven to be doable at LSU almost half the time with non-lame duck head coaches.

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OOC opponents make a big difference.

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I agree with this.

Rome wasn't built in a day (or 2 seasons).

10 win or more regular seasons are the exception not the rule at LSU. EXPECTING 10-2 (at least) is expecting LSU to do better than we've done most seasons in my lifetime (I am 72.)

That being said, we have enough resources and a competent HC to get 10 wins in the regular season, IMO.

What bothers me most now is our recruiting. If we want 10-11-12 wins a year, we need to be in the top 5 recruiting most seasons. We are not at that point.

How is next year our best chance when we lose basically all our production on offense?

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Lol I guess after Bama he should have said give it up boys nothing to play for

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Never said that.

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I know, Dear Facebook.

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Now, to be fair, in the era of 12-game regular seasons, you are talking about (assuming a 10-win season does not include a trip to Atlanta) 10-3 being about equivalent to 9 wins in the "12 games with a bowl" years (which would cover many, many years up through 2000). 9-4 would not count (i.e. 2009, 2017) using that math.

So, with that - LSU has done "that well" (Roughly 75% or better) in:

1935 - 1937 (3 seasons)
1945 - 1946 (2)
1958 - 1959 (2)
1961 - 1962 (2)
1969 - 1973 (5)
1985 - 1987 (3)
1996 - 1997 (2)
2001 (1)
2003 - 2007 (5)
2010 - 2013 (4)
2015 (1)
2018 - 2019 (2)
2022 (*But this did include a trip to Atlanta - is 10-4 better than 9-3? It's lower percentage, but winning the division should count for something, right?)
2023? (Must win bowl game)

So, before Kelly, 32 times, realistically going back to the start of SEC play, roughly 90 years, so about 1/3 of the time.

If you want to go back to 2000, 24 seasons, we're shooting for 15 of those (but would be 2 with Kelly) - so 13/22 before Kelly we did "that" well, since 2000.

However, for a true analysis of what you're saying, i.e. "10 wins is the bar" - 10 wins certainly isn't even average for the 12 seasons prior to Kelly (and this includes 2 of the best seasons in LSU football history with 2011 and 2019 in that range) - beginning with the 2010 season, unless my math is off, LSU is 114 - 40, or an average season of 9 1/2 wins, 3 1/3 losses.

Doing that back to back would definitely be moving the trend line upwards, particularly after the stark drop following the 2019 season.

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you're getting downvoted, but you're absolutely correct.

10 wins used to be a big deal, but that was back when the regular season was 11 games and there were only a dozen or so bowls.

Now, with 12 games regular season and 40+ bowls, it's 13 games, with a few cupcakes included on the schedule.

With 3 cupcakes this year, 10 wins would mean we went 7-3 against real competition. Sorry, but that's not good, not for an elite football power like LSU.

So 10-3 means little to me, since the standard at LSU should be being in the mix for both the SEC and national championships.

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ETA:

All that to be said, it doesn't mean the whole season is a failure. I never said that. I just said I can't stand chirping about how awesome it is to win 10 games when you include the bowl game.