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re: Has betting completely ruined people’s minds?
Posted on 10/5/26 at 3:06 pm to Hangover Haven
Posted on 10/5/26 at 3:06 pm to Hangover Haven
quote:
Hangover Haven
It’s is highly highly unlikely the Dolphins would win.
Probably a 0.5% chance or less.
Give me the 0% chance (historically) instead.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 3:32 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
the whole point it time. Time is more valuable than points. the very small risk of fumbling a snap and draining the clock is significantly more valuable than giving the other team to ball back with a chance you never get it back and lose. its a no brainer
Posted on 10/5/26 at 3:35 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:I don’t have stats the back this up, but I find that hard to believe.
If they score, they are up by 2 scores with 2 minutes left. The dolphins have to score, get an onside, and score again to win. The chances that happens are less than the chance you fumble a snap.
By sliding, you control the outcome of the game and there’s nothing the defense can do about it. Even if you do fumble the snap, which is <1% chance, you have the QB and 2 skill players lined up to recover it. Even if all that fails and the defense recovers the fumble, they still have to go down the field and score.
So yeah, sliding then kneeling probably gives you 10x greater chance at winning than scoring does. I’ve witnessed teams win many times before by scoring, recovering the onside, and scoring again. I’ve never seen a team lose who kneeled it.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 3:40 pm to Tifway419
quote:
So yeah, sliding then kneeling probably gives you 10x greater chance at winning than scoring does
They’re both like 99.9%
Posted on 10/5/26 at 3:40 pm to Tifway419
quote:
I’ve witnessed teams win many times before by scoring, recovering the onside, and scoring again
Define "many". I would guess that an NFL team with 0 timeouts down by 12 points has not scored 2 touchdowns in under 2 minutes with 0 timeouts very often in NFL history. It's even more unlikely with the NFL onside kick rules.
I am not arguing against kneeling. I'm just agreeing with Mingo that the difference in the odds for either option are infinitesimally small.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 3:42 pm to kmcmah1
quote:
“A fool and his money are soon parted.”
People who were on the Dolphins to cover didn’t part with their money. Everyone is ignoring the other side so they can bash gambling.
I get it, you probably think it’s bad for the game, and you hate the barrage of advertising.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 3:43 pm to Dawgsontop34
The NFL is controlled by Hard Rock, Draft Kings and the like.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 3:46 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:I cannot ever remember a team fumbling a snap under center in victory formation. And even if they do fumble, there’s still a chance the offense recovers.
If they score, they are up by 2 scores with 2 minutes left. The dolphins have to score, get an onside, and score again to win. The chances that happens are less than the chance you fumble a snap.
The odds of the trailing team scoring and recovering an onsides kick is higher than the odds of a fumbled snap in victory formation. And you avoid having to put your defense back on the field and risk an injury that would’ve been avoided by kneeling out the clock.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 3:50 pm to Ssubba
quote:
How many times has someone scored, on side kicked, and scored again with 2 mins? I don't know either, but I'm curious.
The Cowboys did it against the Falcons a few years ago. So there's at least one.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 4:08 pm to Hangover Haven
quote:
I really don't think players are in on it, but
Sounds like deep down you already know the truth, but it's a hard pill to swallow.
If there are any others on the fence and need more examples, there's a certain YT channel that breaks it all down with a side of comedy.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 4:09 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
but it’s not like going up two scores and making the dolphins score, make a PAT (which is no longer a given), recover an onside, and score another TD is dumb.
there are other reasons why it is the smart play or right thing to do...like protecting your players from more plays and potential injuries.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 4:28 pm to Dawgsontop34
quote:
The injury risk also increases for players on your team.
Didn't even think about that. No brainer to stop short when factoring that in. Could you imagine consciously choosing to score instead of stopping short and then one of your DL teammates gets rolled up and suffers a freak season ending injury on the ensuing opponent drive? Brutal.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 4:45 pm to Dawgsontop34
The denial wall is thick and strong, and the mental gymnastics trying to overcome it are
Posted on 10/5/26 at 4:50 pm to Hangover Haven
quote:By Hockenson not scoring to go into victory formation, you take the other team completely out of control.
I get why he did it, but...
Why not just score, the game would've been put away...
If the Vikings would have scored, you give the other team the opportunity. A slim opportunity, but we've seen it happen before. If I'm a head coach, I don't stress my team turning the ball over in victory formation.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 4:55 pm to High C
quote:
I get it, you probably think it’s bad for the game, and you hate the barrage of advertising.
Isn’t that enough?
Posted on 10/5/26 at 4:57 pm to kmcmah1
people bet before the apps. Hate to break it to you.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 5:01 pm to kmcmah1
quote:
Isn’t that enough?
Obviously, it is for you. You’re not the only person involved, though.
I hate the lottery and think that people who play it are just burning their money. I hate lottery advertising. Isn’t that enough to make it go away?
Posted on 10/5/26 at 5:13 pm to High C
quote:
A successful onside kick is 4 to 7% with the new rules...
Last I checked, every number in that range is larger than zero.
Right decision. Dumb gamblers.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 5:22 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
They’re both like 99.9%
99.9 winning yes but scoring and putting your defense back on the field with a risk of injury is 100% stupid. How people are arguing against this is mind blowing
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