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Started By
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re: Hanny made a great point on his show about our opponents moving forward
Posted on 5/16/23 at 2:53 am to GeauxLSU4
Posted on 5/16/23 at 2:53 am to GeauxLSU4
quote:
In a super regional, you can almost bank on an opponent pitching backwards to avoid losing to Skenes with their #1. Should be interesting to monitor moving forward.
I actually disagree. Teams can do that now to us because there’s effectively nothing on the line for them…no risk.
In a Super, NO ONE is going to concede Game1 to us. They’ll pitch their dudes and try to win. No one wants to lose Game1 of a Super, stakes are 100x higher than a regular season series.
Right now we’ve got teams tinkering and conceding game1 to us/Skenes because they’ve got nothing to lose, that mentality goes out the window in postseason where everyone is playing to win every game.
Despite the series loss to Miss St, this is one reason I’m still confident in our postseason hopes
This post was edited on 5/16/23 at 3:09 am
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Posted on 5/16/23 at 6:00 am to GeauxLSU4
Start Floyd Friday. If he wins, hold skenes for Sunday. If he loses, throw skenes on Saturday. PM did this in 09 with Coleman and it worked
Posted on 5/16/23 at 6:07 am to GeauxLSU4
The hope would be by that time that Coleman's stamina and pitch count is close to 80-95 pitches to get us a valuable third starter in the post season.
Posted on 5/16/23 at 7:49 am to Penrod
quote:
That’s because you don’t understand the circumstance. It doesn’t matter what order the games are played.
The order doesn’t matter, but effectively conceding a game absolutely matters.
If you have a 50% chance to win each game in a 3-game series, you (obviously) have a 50% chance to win the series. If you concede game 1, that drops to a 25% chance.
Even if conceding game 1 gives you a 70% chance to win games 2 and 3, that’s still only 49% chance to win the series.
Using a more realistic scenario - let’s say a team’s odds against LSU on Fri / Sat / Sun using their normal lineup are 40% / 55% / 55%. That’s a 50.05% probability for them to win the series. If they tweak their lineup to change the individual game odds to 15% / 65% / 65%, their series win probability drops to 49%.
Obviously teams wouldn’t do this if they felt they were evenly matched in all three games. The lower a team’s chances of beating Skenes and stealing game 1, the more it makes sense. I think we should probably expect to play a pretty good team in a super, which makes it a less viable strategy than it would be for a huge underdog.
There’s also the psychological aspect of having to win 2 elimination games. You don’t see that in the regular season.
I think there’s a chance someone tries this in a super, but it’s far from a lock IMO.
Posted on 5/16/23 at 7:51 am to SammyTiger
quote:
with our better relievers (Herring and Cooper
Cooper?
Posted on 5/16/23 at 7:56 am to lostinbr
Thank you for this. 
Posted on 5/16/23 at 8:04 am to lostinbr
This! I go with the mathematical approach.
Posted on 5/16/23 at 8:07 am to Honkus
quote:
If thats the case we should announce Skenes starting G1 and scratch him in pregame warm-ups. Its the damndest thing.. back tightened up. Cant be too careful
Yes but make sure CJJ doesn’t then place a bet from the dugout
Posted on 5/16/23 at 8:52 am to TBoy@LSU
My fear is Skenes going 7 IP of 1 run baseball then the bullpen pulling what they did this weekend and give up 7 runs in two innings.
Posted on 5/16/23 at 8:56 am to OvertheDwayneBowe
How many relievers need to pull their head out of their arse for us to get to Omaha?
If Coleman keeps extending, Money stays where he is, I think it's three or four more that just need to move the needle from awful to mediocre.
If Coleman keeps extending, Money stays where he is, I think it's three or four more that just need to move the needle from awful to mediocre.
Posted on 5/16/23 at 8:57 am to OvertheDwayneBowe
Can’t keep saving arms for Sunday.
If skenes goes 7 we gotta put Guidry, Herring or Coleman out there is it’s close.
If skenes goes 7 we gotta put Guidry, Herring or Coleman out there is it’s close.
Posted on 5/16/23 at 8:57 am to SammyTiger
quote:
Can’t keep saving arms for Sunday.
If skenes goes 7 we gotta put Guidry, Herring or Coleman out there is it’s close.
And likewise, in a Super, Floyd would have gone out to start the 7th.
Posted on 5/16/23 at 9:29 am to OvertheDwayneBowe
quote:
My fear is Skenes going 7 IP of 1 run baseball then the bullpen pulling what they did this weekend and give up 7 runs in two innings.
So you fear something that hasn’t happened all year in a Skenes start? There is plenty to fear about this team. Don’t need to make up a scenario that hasn’t happened yet.
Posted on 5/16/23 at 9:32 am to OvertheDwayneBowe
quote:
My fear is Skenes going 7 IP of 1 run baseball then the bullpen pulling what they did this weekend and give up 7 runs in two innings
My biggest takeaway from the weekend was Hurd getting shelled; the scenario you described is a distinct possibility. It looked like Hurd had found something in his last few outings and had become a great option out of the pen to close out games.
It happened in Game 1 against Arkansas. Skenes pitched seven innings and gave up one run. LSU ends up losing 9-3.
A super regional team isn't going to pitch backward against LSU. They'll have an ace they believe can keep the game close until LSU's bullpen arrives. With LSU's recent skid, there's a good chance LSU is going on the road to face a top 8 seed. Those teams don't have rag-tag staffs like Auburn and State. Also, in a weekend series, you're guaranteed game three. In a best 2/3 super, you're not.
Posted on 5/16/23 at 9:41 am to ProjectP2294
It’s going to be fascinating how SEC teams do when they don’t have SEC umpires behind the plate during the post season. How much does the pitching improve? How much, if any, does the batting regress?
Posted on 5/16/23 at 10:08 am to SammyTiger
quote:
If we back Floyd with our better relievers (Herring and Cooper) and give him some run support I think We can win game 2.
Our hitting has been almost as sh'tty as the bullpen
Posted on 5/16/23 at 10:22 am to TigerZeke62
quote:
Our hitting has been almost as sh'tty as the bullpen
LSU plated 29 runs last weekend
Posted on 5/16/23 at 10:24 am to TigerZeke62
For like 4 games.
I think We’ll be ok. Tommy is on fire andnit looks like Crews is back.
I think We’ll be ok. Tommy is on fire andnit looks like Crews is back.
Posted on 5/16/23 at 10:47 am to TigerZeke62
quote:What a horrible take.
Our hitting has been almost as sh'tty as the bullpen
Posted on 5/16/23 at 11:34 am to skullhawk
quote:
With LSU's recent skid, there's a good chance LSU is going on the road to face a top 8 seed.
That's not even close to being true at this moment.
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