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Started By
Message
re: Can anyone talk me out of putting $1000 on LSU -4?
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:35 am to NeilArmstrong1969
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:35 am to NeilArmstrong1969
quote:
I lost my @$$ betting on them the past 2 years against Florida State
I see you learn lessons easily
0
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:36 am to NeilArmstrong1969
Don’t ever bet on feel or emotions. Unless, of course, you feel it! R 
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:38 am to NeilArmstrong1969
Look no further than the last 4 openers
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:38 am to NeilArmstrong1969
Over 80% of the public is betting on LSU, yet the line has moved from -6.5 to -4. That’s the opposite of what it should be doing.
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:39 am to NeilArmstrong1969
Why not $2k?
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:44 am to NeilArmstrong1969
You’d be better off just giving me the $1000
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:45 am to NeilArmstrong1969
I quit betting on LSU. A long time ago. I want to celebrate a win even if we don’t beat the spread. I used to bet with my heart and not my head. Lost a lot from that. So now I just stay away from betting LSU
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:47 am to NeilArmstrong1969
quote:
LSU is currently down to -4 at -112 odds on Draft Kings right now, and I’m thinking about putting $1000 down on them at that number. I know it’s a season opener and yes I lost my @$$ betting on them the past 2 years against Florida State, but this year just feels different.
We call this degeneracy
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:49 am to NeilArmstrong1969
Take the over...LSU has one of the best offensive lines in college football history and I still don't trust the defense.
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:51 am to NeilArmstrong1969
I took o/63.5 earlier this week, and will probably take it again closer to the game if the line stays in that area.
If it gets to LSU -3.5 I may take them to cover, but without seeing the defense I can see this being a shootout. 38-35 Tigers or something like that. You'll be happy the Tigers won, but out a grand.
If it gets to LSU -3.5 I may take them to cover, but without seeing the defense I can see this being a shootout. 38-35 Tigers or something like that. You'll be happy the Tigers won, but out a grand.
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:53 am to NeilArmstrong1969
LSU has lost the last 4 season openers by an average of 11 points. In three of the four they have allowed at least 38 points. In those 4 games they had the lead for a combined (appx) 16 minutes of a possible 240.
USC shares a LOT of similarities with LSU. But just as our fanbase is confident in Baker turning the defense around, I'm sure theirs is just as confident in their new DC, Lynn. We all talk about how much Baker turned around Missouri's defense, but arguably Lynn did as good a job last year at UCLA (maybe slightly better) than Baker at Missouri. Lynn took UCLA from 90th in total defense (2022) to 12th (2023)
I absolutely think LSU can win and I'm hoping like hell they do. But I'm not touching this game. And I sure as hell wouldn't touch it at LSU laying 4 points. If that doesn't convince you, know this. Nearly 80% of the bets are on LSU. Yet, the line has moved down two points. That means big money bets came in on USC at -6. If you believe in the mantra of "fade the public"...you fade LSU here.
USC shares a LOT of similarities with LSU. But just as our fanbase is confident in Baker turning the defense around, I'm sure theirs is just as confident in their new DC, Lynn. We all talk about how much Baker turned around Missouri's defense, but arguably Lynn did as good a job last year at UCLA (maybe slightly better) than Baker at Missouri. Lynn took UCLA from 90th in total defense (2022) to 12th (2023)
I absolutely think LSU can win and I'm hoping like hell they do. But I'm not touching this game. And I sure as hell wouldn't touch it at LSU laying 4 points. If that doesn't convince you, know this. Nearly 80% of the bets are on LSU. Yet, the line has moved down two points. That means big money bets came in on USC at -6. If you believe in the mantra of "fade the public"...you fade LSU here.
This post was edited on 8/28/24 at 8:55 am
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:56 am to NeilArmstrong1969
I'll give it a shot... Nuss has been throwing INTs this camp and USC's corners are really good. I expect Nuss to have 2 INTs and I'm not sure if the defense can withstand that.
Posted on 8/28/24 at 9:00 am to Ash Williams
quote:
Only your wife.
The rest of us support this decision.
Posted on 8/28/24 at 9:05 am to NeilArmstrong1969
Lincoln's offenses average 40+ pts and his new QB just threw 6 TDs in a bowl game in his last start.
Our defense is basically the same personnel that would have given up 45 easy to this offense last season. Thus, you will need LSU to score 7 TDs to feel good about covering your bet. Nuss likely throwing at least 1 pick.
There are only about a dozen possessions in a game for an offense now, which means if we have to punt more than 3 times you will feel uneasy about your bet.
Our defense is basically the same personnel that would have given up 45 easy to this offense last season. Thus, you will need LSU to score 7 TDs to feel good about covering your bet. Nuss likely throwing at least 1 pick.
There are only about a dozen possessions in a game for an offense now, which means if we have to punt more than 3 times you will feel uneasy about your bet.
Posted on 8/28/24 at 9:06 am to NeilArmstrong1969
Easy… don’t gamble….
Posted on 8/28/24 at 9:06 am to NeilArmstrong1969
quote:
Can anyone talk me out of putting $1000 on LSU -4?
Why would you only bet 1,000? I would double it if I were you
Posted on 8/28/24 at 9:07 am to Hamma1122
Who cares if you got it and it's not a big deal let it ride!!!!!!!!
I sure as hell am not doing that.
I sure as hell am not doing that.
Posted on 8/28/24 at 9:10 am to NeilArmstrong1969
I agree this one feels different. I haven't bet on lsu in a few years but prob will get a little action on this. I think LSU will win by double digits.
Posted on 8/28/24 at 9:14 am to NeilArmstrong1969
quote:
but this year just feels different
in that case, put 2K down!
Posted on 8/28/24 at 9:17 am to burreauxxx
quote:
Our defense is basically the same personnel that would have given up 45 easy to this offense last season.
True. But I think the scheme was a BIG reason for the disaster. That's not to say LSU had the "dudes" to be a top 25 defense last season. But House took an average group and made them horrible. Case in point, Omar Speights was an all conference player in 2022 at OSU. He was absolutely horrible at LSU last season. Now, he not only made the LA Rams roster as a rookie, he's slated to be a starter. Coaching matters! Damone Clark was a very good player in 2019. With a new DC and completely new defensive approach in 2020 he was horrible. Same for the beginning of 2021. Then, ahead of the Alabama game, LSU completely changed their defensive scheme/approach. Clark "suddenly" became the best LB in the SEC for the final 5 or so games.
I don't think LSU keeps USC under 20. Maybe even 30. But I'm not discounting the impact a new DC/approach can have.
quote:
There are only about a dozen possessions in a game for an offense now, which means if we have to punt more than 3 times you will feel uneasy about your bet.
I wouldn't touch this game. But it will be interesting to see LSU's approach. I think their best path to victory is on the ground. If you want to tell everyone you are the best OL in the country go prove it!
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