What is the general consensus on the ammo shortage situation

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What is the general consensus on the ammo shortage situation

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Ammo is harder to find than it used to be, and usually 2x as expensive as it used to be.

I can find what I want but it’s expensive

ETA: the one thing I can’t find is 300 blackout subs

it's come off the peak prices and availablity appears to be improving.

No where near pre-Covid conditions though..

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I'll consider it to be easing up when primers are available.

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1+

I'm noticing a slight improvement in availability recently.

But prices remain at least double what they were in early 2020.

It's better than it was at the beginning of the year. 5.56 was $1 if you could find it, now good brass stuff is easy to find online for $0.65-.70. 9mm was nearly $1 as well, and it's down to $.50-0.60.

22lr and primers....maybe next year.

I bought some 7mm 08 off Sportsman’s Guide this week. First time since last summer that I’ve found any online.

We're on the beginnings of returning back to normal

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It will remain elevated in price until manufacturing capacity increases to match the volume of firearms sold these last several years. I have a spreadsheet that I update with the NICS monthly data, the trends are far outpacing ammo production.

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I think that's a bit misleading, just my opinion.

People who just purchased their first guns this year- they didn't even see the need to have a gun beforehand. I suspect strongly- STRONGLY- that the vast majority of new owners will not be active high-volume shooters. I think they got their gun and stash of ammo, and probably well over 90% will basically sit on it.
Sure, they took it out and ran some through it, maybe even a couple hundred. Enough to feel comfortable with it.

I know someone who bought an M&P Sport II right before Obama took office, along with a case of Wolf Gold just in case. That was going on a decade now. He still has easily half that ammo, wouldn't be surprised if he's still got 3/4 of it left.

Most of the new owners will be the same way- they got what they feel they need, and aren't looking for more right now.

In the meantime, ammo makers are ramping up in response to the frenzy, we're seeing known import brands returning, and we've seen a few new ones dipping into the market. Things are catching up, and I suspect will return to 'normal' by early 2022 at the latest. Normal meaning- no false high points, because someone (PPU maybe) will undercut them. They were selling 9mm for approx $10 a box, because they could and still make a profit. It might not be $10, but it won't be $20, because PPU or GECO will gladly sell for a couple bucks less and take a larger share of the market. Igman, one of the new entries (out of Croatia) will definitely do the same, just to keep US dollars coming in, instead of just shipping stockpiles to their home M&P.

Still seems hit or miss.

Although easier to find than hardwood veneer plywood.

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People who just purchased their first guns this year- they didn't even see the need to have a gun beforehand. I suspect strongly- STRONGLY- that the vast majority of new owners will not be active high-volume shooters

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Vast majority of gun owners aren't high-volume shooters period. Those in the industry know this and they also know that the small percentage of high-volume shooters don't even make a blip when it comes to demand spikes. It is indeed the new owners that are buying one or a couple of boxes of ammo to take home with their new purchase, it's the millions that are also surging to get concealed carry permits that need a box of ammo or two that's mandated for the course. The casual gun buyers vastly outnumber the enthusiasts and are what's causing supply to lag behind demand. And out of those millions there will be some that transition to enthusiastic shooters, those will maintain a more permanent load on the ammo supply side. There's nothing misleading here, it's simply the numbers.