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What's your surprise state for tomorrow?
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:37 pm
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:37 pm
Could go either way for either candidate (NH for Trump, GA for Biden, etc.)
My random guess- Trump wins VA. Looking at numbers from 2016 and it seems like it's within the margin. Would think some of those independent votes switch over to Trump and he may get some of the moderates in VA.
Hilldawg- 1,981,473 49.73%
Trump- 1,769,443 44.41%
Gary Johnson– 118,274 2.97%
Jill Stein- 27,638 0.69%
Evan McMullin- 54,054 1.36%
Others- 33,749 0.85%
Margin- 212,030 -5.32%
Total votes- 3,984,631
Early voting totals so far from VA website here. Interesting that in-person is almost 850k higher than the mail ballots.
Absentee Ballots Returned by Method Count
Designated Representative 118
In Person 1,854,492
Mail 718,636
Mail (Non-USPS) 170,792
Total 2,744,038
My random guess- Trump wins VA. Looking at numbers from 2016 and it seems like it's within the margin. Would think some of those independent votes switch over to Trump and he may get some of the moderates in VA.
Hilldawg- 1,981,473 49.73%
Trump- 1,769,443 44.41%
Gary Johnson– 118,274 2.97%
Jill Stein- 27,638 0.69%
Evan McMullin- 54,054 1.36%
Others- 33,749 0.85%
Margin- 212,030 -5.32%
Total votes- 3,984,631
Early voting totals so far from VA website here. Interesting that in-person is almost 850k higher than the mail ballots.
Absentee Ballots Returned by Method Count
Designated Representative 118
In Person 1,854,492
Mail 718,636
Mail (Non-USPS) 170,792
Total 2,744,038
29
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:38 pm to CuseTiger
Nevada
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:39 pm to CuseTiger
Race is called by midnight.
MAGA wins
AZ TX GA NC OH MI WI FL
PA is lagniappe and unnecessary
MAGA wins
AZ TX GA NC OH MI WI FL
PA is lagniappe and unnecessary
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:39 pm to CuseTiger
quote:
My random guess- Trump wins VA
That would be game over very early on.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:40 pm to CuseTiger
A true "surprise" for me would be New Mexico. I think TRUMP is going to win NV and MN.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:40 pm to Covingtontiger77
Agree.
Biden sues and drags it out- but it will not be enough
Biden sues and drags it out- but it will not be enough
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:40 pm to CuseTiger
I'm going to go with New Hampshire because people assume it's a lost cause in the Northeast, but that's not quite the case. Suspicious activities and a narrow margin (under 3000 vote difference) led to Hillary taking it.
If Trump gets VA?
If Trump gets VA?
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:41 pm to CuseTiger
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/10/21 at 11:12 pm
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:41 pm to CuseTiger
New Hampshire
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:42 pm to CuseTiger
I REPEAT, GEORGIA IS A TRUMP WIN!!
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:43 pm to CuseTiger
Maine and/or New Hampshire for Trump
Both were < 3% wins for Clinton and are fairly stable from a demographics standpoint that should keep them close again.
Both were < 3% wins for Clinton and are fairly stable from a demographics standpoint that should keep them close again.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:43 pm to CuseTiger
New Hampshire
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:43 pm to CuseTiger
Trump wins Minnesota
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:45 pm to CuseTiger
I like your VA pick, but I got shot down by VA folks on here a while back, so... idk. They’re pretty sure VA stays blue
Right now, I’m pretty confident NH and NV go Red based on early voting, primaries, and where the Trump campaign has focused attention on.
Right now, I’m pretty confident NH and NV go Red based on early voting, primaries, and where the Trump campaign has focused attention on.
This post was edited on 11/2/20 at 6:46 pm
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:45 pm to CuseTiger
I was about to say Florida only because of voter fraud. I just noticed Brenda Snipes has been removed as the election supervisor in Broward County. Not sure how I could have missed it. I do feel better about Florida now though.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:46 pm to NorthEndZone
Both Maine and NH go Trump. If he gets those he starts to negate the whole blue wall if he can pull NV also.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:46 pm to CuseTiger
quote:
What's your surprise state for tomorrow?
I have a hot take of Virginia!
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:46 pm to CuseTiger
New York
2016 - Hillary 59%:Trump 37%
I think there are enough New Yorkers woken up by the antics of Cuomo and DeBlasio during COVID that Trump has an outside chance.
If Trump pulls 40% in the City and around 58% in the rest of the state, he wins New York.
2016 - Hillary 59%:Trump 37%
I think there are enough New Yorkers woken up by the antics of Cuomo and DeBlasio during COVID that Trump has an outside chance.
If Trump pulls 40% in the City and around 58% in the rest of the state, he wins New York.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:47 pm to CuseTiger
Nevada and Minnesota are two "surprise" states Trump could win.
Surprising losses would be the ones already mentioned, NC, GA, Texas shite like that.
Surprising losses would be the ones already mentioned, NC, GA, Texas shite like that.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:47 pm to CuseTiger
Oregon
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