- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Trump's Electoral College path of least resistance
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:00 am
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:00 am
Despite all the bad polling, Trump has a path to reelection that doesn't involve any major state upsets, and only requires two minor upsets. That would be PA, where he has a 38% chance to win according to betting markets, and Arizona (37%).
If you give him PA, AZ, + all the states he's favored in, which includes NC (52%), FL (53%), ME-2 (59%), IA (63%), GA (65%), OH (67%), TX (74%), etc, you get this map:
(All %s used above are from predictit betting market as of 9/22 at 8am CT)
If you give him PA, AZ, + all the states he's favored in, which includes NC (52%), FL (53%), ME-2 (59%), IA (63%), GA (65%), OH (67%), TX (74%), etc, you get this map:
(All %s used above are from predictit betting market as of 9/22 at 8am CT)
This post was edited on 9/22/20 at 8:52 am
15
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:01 am to RidiculousHype
quote:
path of least resistance
Taking 47 states does that
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:03 am to RidiculousHype
PA will go Red unless they harvest about 200% voter turnout in Philly.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:06 am to RidiculousHype
MN, WI, MI
He’s taking one of those three easily
He’s taking one of those three easily
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:19 am to RidiculousHype
Before yesterday I felt better about Trump taking Minnesota and Wisconsin than I did about him taking Pennsylvania. But then I saw the advantage that the GOP has gained in Pennsylvania in registered Republicans over Democrats since 2016 posted by anc yesterday. There is close to a net 200k advantage for the GOP in PA since 2016 for registered voters. I feel much better about PA today.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:24 am to RidiculousHype
Bold prediction:
Biden only wins CA & NY
Biden only wins CA & NY
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:24 am to RidiculousHype
You snuck Ohio in there, though.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:25 am to RidiculousHype
I really do not see Trump doing worse (or biden doing better than Hillary)than what happened in 2016. In fact I think Trump will pick up a deep blue state or two.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:26 am to RidiculousHype
Nevada would be a good gamble on Predictit.
Trump get out the vote campaign is going hard there, and he lost to Hillary by less than 3%
Trump get out the vote campaign is going hard there, and he lost to Hillary by less than 3%
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:29 am to RidiculousHype
FWIW, MN, WI, and MI are going Trump again, without a doubt. AZ may not, due to the electioneering going on with the dems over there. And Trump is getting all of NE's electoral votes.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:29 am to RidiculousHype
If Trump wins NE2 he doesn’t even need Arizona. But that’s a bit gamble because that’s going to be a tight race in Omaha with the dumbass white educated vote there. He’d have 269 and win the election through the house delegations.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:34 am to RidiculousHype
Arizona will be a tough pull. The mass exodus to there from the people leaving the Communist Republic of California is turning Arizona blue quickly.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:39 am to RidiculousHype
The people’s pundit daily folks seem to think that Trump is good in AZ
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:40 am to RidiculousHype
Election night will be hanging on the PA results early on. If PA goes red, it's pretty much over for Biden. PA is the key, and both sides start to run out of paths to the WH without PA.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 9:28 am to RidiculousHype
quote:
Despite all the bad polling, Trump has a path to reelection that doesn't involve any major state upsets
Man I'm all in on re-election but I'm afraid some of ya'll have your head in the sand. It's shaking out to be a very narrow and specific path for Trump and I wouldn't have thought that in February we'd be here.
quote:
That would be PA, where he has a 38% chance to win according to betting markets, and Arizona (37%).
He's got to have PA if he has any chance to win. I hope some of the landslide predictors on here are starting to see this. All the rallys and boat parades and signs don't mean anything without the vote turning out.
VOTE!!
Posted on 9/22/20 at 9:30 am to RidiculousHype
If he takes PA he wins this election.
If he doesn't he's got to piece together some real tossups.
If he doesn't he's got to piece together some real tossups.
Page 1 of 1
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News