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re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 3/24/20 at 9:29 am to Tiguar
Posted on 3/24/20 at 9:29 am to Tiguar
I really wish US numbers were split up, we are too big a geographic area with vastly different population densities to accurately state our progress with one number.
2
Posted on 3/24/20 at 9:32 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
They are just trying to scare young people into not being assholes and not quarantining.
It will likely come out that some of the social distance desertion was in fact a good thing for herd immunity.
Ignorance truly is bliss, the millennial way baby.
This post was edited on 3/24/20 at 9:37 am
Posted on 3/24/20 at 9:35 am to barry
quote:
I really wish US numbers were split up, we are too big a geographic area with vastly different population densities to accurately state our progress with one number.
This x1000.
We're going to surpass everyone on positive cases and it will basically be solely based on us ramping the F out of testing, sharing accurate numbers and the size of the overall population.
Our mortality rate is still staying very positive though if the numbers reported are fairly accurate.
Good day for the market today so far. Hopefully the shite bags in Washington get something done.
About lost my shite yesterday seeing what was put into the bill as Nancy arrived from vacation on her private jet.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 9:40 am to barry
Posted on 3/24/20 at 9:54 am to VABuckeye
Only based on the rate of replies to this thread, people seem to be a little less concerned than a few days ago.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 9:55 am to Tiguar
quote:
Something else interesting on this site is the number of how many are hospitalized.
We have about a 7% hospitalization rate which is lower than the 10-20% seen everywhere else. That’s one reason we haven’t gotten our asses kicked by this yet
That number might be misleading... if you look at individual states it appears that many states are not reporting that data (N/A for many states).
Posted on 3/24/20 at 9:57 am to Tiguar
Tiguar - a question about hydroxychloroquine. Are we at the point of giving it to every patient that's been hospitalized or in critical condition? If not, is there a reason? Is there a mixed perception of its efficacy in the medical community? Is it not available?
Posted on 3/24/20 at 9:58 am to CivilTiger83
quote:
That number might be misleading... if you look at individual states it appears that many states are not reporting that data (N/A for many states).
Correct. Some states are also not reporting the number of negative tests or tests performed. It throws off the US numbers when the individual states are all reporting differently.
Actually worse than not reporting at all (which is easy to spot) is when the data includes partial data. For instance, early on Ohio reported negative tests, then stopped so now the website shows 442 positive tests and 140 negative.
This post was edited on 3/24/20 at 10:04 am
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:00 am to MadDogs
When does Italy’s mixtape drop today?
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:06 am to The Boat
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:08 am to MadDogs
NY is probably the best statewide dataset at this point (lots of testing with a high number of cases with full reporting). They are showing around a 10% hospitalization rate with a case fatality rate at 0.7%.
There are two competing issues on the case fatality rate. On the one hand, fatalities will lag cases by at least a week. When you consider that cases are doubling every 5-7 days, that means that the true CFR might be double the current raw case fatality rate.
On the other hand with our limited testing there are likely many more cases than we thought. NY is testing more than anyone in the US, so they probably have a decent handle on the denominator... at least within the ballpark.
It appears that NY also has most of its cases in the lower risk category (under 70) so that helps the fatality numbers.
There are two competing issues on the case fatality rate. On the one hand, fatalities will lag cases by at least a week. When you consider that cases are doubling every 5-7 days, that means that the true CFR might be double the current raw case fatality rate.
On the other hand with our limited testing there are likely many more cases than we thought. NY is testing more than anyone in the US, so they probably have a decent handle on the denominator... at least within the ballpark.
It appears that NY also has most of its cases in the lower risk category (under 70) so that helps the fatality numbers.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:12 am to STLhog
quote:
It will likely come out that some of the social distance desertion was in fact a good thing for herd immunity
If we shot people outside their homes we could probably get even better numbers. Of course there are trades offs.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:12 am to Tiguar
quote:
We have about a 7% hospitalization rate which is lower than the 10-20% seen everywhere else. That’s one reason we haven’t gotten our asses kicked by this yet
Yeah, a lower rate means that we're testing more people than others.
We had 140 deaths nationally yesterday. Italy had 168 on March 10th. Total deaths is the only metric I actually trust for country comparison, except for places like Germany and Russia which are sometimes reporting deaths as instead being the result of other comorbidities.
So, we are really two weeks behind Italy in terms of total numbers. Of course, Italy is a fifth of our size.
And before anyone says that we have much worse off hotspots like New Orleans and NYC, please recognize that Italy had and continues to have hotspots as well.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:14 am to jamiegla1
quote:
Tiguar - a question about hydroxychloroquine.
Not directed at me, but there is still a shortage in NOLA. Imagine top priority is ending that. So hopefully it is really soon.
This post was edited on 3/24/20 at 10:16 am
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:19 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
we are really two weeks behind Italy in terms of total numbers.
Depends on which numbers you want to look at
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:19 am to GOP_Tiger
Even deaths is a tough one to compare since you really need to see death rate per capita in areas that have reached capacity at their hospitals. The data is interesting to look at right now, but we really can't draw any comparisons yet.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:23 am to MadDogs
I hope there are people with access to all the data available. That’s been a big frustration from the beginning. No consistent data and key information not being tracked or not being shared. I want it for my own curiosity, but for governments, hospitals, etc. it seems access to all data, real-time, is necessary to know where this is going and to respond accordingly.
Also is interesting to note that the increments used in a graph or chart can display the exact same data as an alarming spike or slow climb. The picture will become clearer over time, but analyzing the data out there right now is difficult.
Also is interesting to note that the increments used in a graph or chart can display the exact same data as an alarming spike or slow climb. The picture will become clearer over time, but analyzing the data out there right now is difficult.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:35 am to MarcusQuinn
USA Today Op Ed on the medical ethics of deciding who gets a scarce ventilator. Of particular interest, one of the co authors is a former LSU Golden Girl LINK
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:46 am to Jim Rockford
Uh-Oh:
India's Prime Minister Modi orders a three-week nationwide lockdown in a bid to curb the spread of coronavirus.
India's Prime Minister Modi orders a three-week nationwide lockdown in a bid to curb the spread of coronavirus.
This post was edited on 3/24/20 at 10:47 am
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:49 am to Shane4689
Many of the individual states begin shutting down last week
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