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I need a math genius for a question about America.
Posted on 4/6/26 at 7:48 pm
Posted on 4/6/26 at 7:48 pm
Three former presidents have died on the 4th of July.
Jefferson, Adams, Monroe.
We are on president 47 right now. Only 43 presidents have died.
There are 365 days in a year.
What are the odds that 3 of those 43 died on a particular date on the calendar?
I can't figure out the order of operations on this or how to calculate it.
Jefferson, Adams, Monroe.
We are on president 47 right now. Only 43 presidents have died.
There are 365 days in a year.
What are the odds that 3 of those 43 died on a particular date on the calendar?
I can't figure out the order of operations on this or how to calculate it.
14
Posted on 4/6/26 at 7:53 pm to deeprig9
I was told there would be no math.
Posted on 4/6/26 at 7:54 pm to deeprig9
What are you? My final?
Posted on 4/6/26 at 7:54 pm to deeprig9
This what AI is good at.
quote:
The probability is 0.0002274, or 1 in 4,397.
What the odds mean in plain English
• The chance of exactly 3 presidents dying on any one specific date (purely by random chance, assuming uniform and independent death dates) is roughly 1 in 4,397.
• In odds format: 4,396 to 1 against it happening.
(If you had asked for at least 3 instead of exactly 3, it would be 1 in 4,277—basically the same ballpark.)
This assumes:
• Exactly 365 days in a year (as you stated; leap years make July 4 unaffected anyway).
• Death dates are uniformly random and independent (the standard “null hypothesis” for this kind of coincidence question).
That’s why seeing three presidents die on the exact same date (July 4) is legitimately rare—but not impossible—under pure chance. The calculation is fully deterministic once you plug the numbers into the formula above.
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:03 pm to BigBinBR
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:05 pm to deeprig9
quote:
43 presidents have died
I assume the birthday paradox would apply to death dates, too.
The likelihood of 2 people of a random 43 sharing a same birthday (or (death day) is actually pretty high. I believe at about 53 random people it is nearly 100% that at least 2 share the same birthday. Not sure about 3 though.
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:05 pm to deeprig9
The odds of having three people in a group of 50 people having the same birthday is ~12 percent.
So the likelihood of three of 43 dead US Presidents having the same exit date of the year is ~9% or 10%.
That the shared date is July 4th does make it a more difficult “ask”.
ETA: There are only 41 dead Presidents, that makes the probability ~8% that any three of the 41 could potentially all have an identical birth date (day/month combination).
The chance that that combo would actually be a specific date (say July 4th) makes the odds against it happening much higher.
Enjoy April 7th and stop worrying about Dead Presidents.
So the likelihood of three of 43 dead US Presidents having the same exit date of the year is ~9% or 10%.
That the shared date is July 4th does make it a more difficult “ask”.
ETA: There are only 41 dead Presidents, that makes the probability ~8% that any three of the 41 could potentially all have an identical birth date (day/month combination).
The chance that that combo would actually be a specific date (say July 4th) makes the odds against it happening much higher.
Enjoy April 7th and stop worrying about Dead Presidents.
This post was edited on 4/7/26 at 6:41 am
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:08 pm to soccerfüt
41 presidents have died. Clinton, GW Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden are all still alive. Allegedly.
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:09 pm to deeprig9
America doesn't make math geniuses anymore
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:11 pm to BigBinBR
quote:
This what AI is good at... roughly 1 in 4,397
Interesting, if the birthday paradox works for deathdays as well, the percentage chance is much higher, on the order of 8%. I don't have time to consider the issue, though. It seems high, but that is the whole point of the birthday paradox: the numbers don't make sense to us initially.
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:12 pm to deeprig9
quote:
What are the odds that 3 of those 43 died on a particular date on the calendar?
Isn’t it like a 50% chance that 2 people in a room of 25 would share a birthday?
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:12 pm to deeprig9
Got to ask a Chinese guy something hard like this.
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:19 pm to deeprig9
quote:
We are on president 47 right now. Only 43 presidents have died.
Two have served non-consecutive terms... so deduct two. 45 presidents.
Deduct 5 living presidents.
40 deceased...
so... that's where my math gets fuzzy, but the answer is roughly 7%.
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:19 pm to Trout Bandit
quote:
41 presidents have died. Clinton, GW Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden are all still alive. Allegedly.
40 presidents have died. President Trump and President Cleveland had non-successive terms.
This post was edited on 4/6/26 at 8:20 pm
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:19 pm to Trout Bandit
Math is hard.
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:21 pm to soccerfüt
350
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:21 pm to Archives
I think birthdays are probably less random.
Probably a cluster of November because of parents banging on Valentines Day, or September from new year etc.
Regional too, like when Argentina won the world cup there was a huge influx of babies being born 9 months later.
Still random in a small group, but I imagine less random than death days
Probably a cluster of November because of parents banging on Valentines Day, or September from new year etc.
Regional too, like when Argentina won the world cup there was a huge influx of babies being born 9 months later.
Still random in a small group, but I imagine less random than death days
This post was edited on 4/6/26 at 8:22 pm
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:22 pm to deeprig9
Jefferson and Adam's died on the same day in the same year
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:23 pm to beerJeep
quote:
Isn’t it like a 50% chance that 2 people in a room of 25 would share a birthday?
50.7 in a room of 23. That is why I think it is significantly higher. Using the birthday paradox math, it is right around 8%.
Posted on 4/6/26 at 8:23 pm to Zzyzx
Death dates are not entirely random either; elderly folks die more frequently in cold weather months for example.
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