When the Atlantic says we are winning ….

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Glimpsing Victory in Iran
The campaign has already delivered major wins for American national security, but something much bigger is starting to come into view.
By Mark Dubowitz and Richard Goldberg
March 16, 2026

Two weeks after the United States and Israel launched their combined military campaign against Iran’s clerical regime, the outlines of victory are beginning to emerge.

Military campaigns of this kind—especially those aimed not only at degrading military capability but also at creating conditions for political change—unfold in phases. The first phase of this conflict was bound to be the most important: stripping the Islamic Republic of its ability to wage war against America and its allies, threaten its neighbors, and intimidate global markets.

The early results are promising, though much remains unfinished.
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Just as important, the human system behind the arsenal is fraying. Missile crews are reportedly reluctant to leave cover, desertions are increasing, refusals to obey orders are surfacing, and American and Israeli forces continue hunting launchers daily. Indeed, each Iranian launch is becoming a suicide mission for those conducting the firing.

The damage extends beyond hardware. Israel’s campaign began with an unprecedented decapitation strike that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and it has continued with attacks on senior figures tied to the regime’s military, nuclear, and internal-security apparatus. Among those killed were Ali Shamkhani, Aziz Nasirzadeh, and Mohammad Pakpour—men once seen as central to regime continuity. Israel claims that 40 senior Iranian commanders were killed in its opening decapitation strike alone. Israel likewise claims that its strikes have taken out thousands of Iranian security personnel.
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What much commentary misses is that military campaigns proceed sequentially. United States Central Command has planned for a Hormuz contingency for years: First dismantle Iranian offensive power, then shift to maritime protection.

That sequencing is already visible. First, air and naval forces need to focus on reducing Iran’s launcher capacity. The movement of the USS Gerald R. Ford strike group down the Red Sea suggests that naval capacity is being positioned for the next phase. Once launcher capacity is sufficiently reduced, U.S. forces can shift toward providing tanker protection and maritime escorts.

The regime rightly sees the Battle for Hormuz as its last stand. If Central Command succeeds in setting the conditions for tanker traffic to resume—and potentially, for the United States to cut off the regime’s financial lifeblood on Kharg—the stage would be set for history-changing events to follow.
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Phase 1 degrades military power and holds hostage the regime’s economic lifelines. Phase 2 raises the cost of repression inside Iran. Drones operating over Tehran have reportedly struck and killed IRGC and Basij personnel manning checkpoint units. For the first time, repression forces may fear for their own survival just as protesters have for years.

Phase 3 could present itself in more ways than sudden collapse—perhaps looking more like sustained erosion: a weakened regime, tightening economic pressure, diplomatic isolation, and eventually internal upheaval. The announced selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader may accelerate that erosion rather than stabilize it. A polished cleric in the mold of Hassan Rouhani could again provide the IRGC political cover and revive illusions of moderation abroad. Mojtaba offers no such illusion. His elevation signals a harsher, weaker, more corrupt order—and therefore a more fragile one.

Phase 3, however, belongs to the Iranian people.
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Operation Epic Fury is only two weeks old. The campaign has already delivered major wins for American national security, and more are likely to emerge in coming days. But something much bigger and more historic is starting to come into view—something that can be unlocked with a little more patience from the American public as the United States degrades Tehran’s ability to wage war outside its borders and Israel degrades the regime’s ability to wage war against its own people.

Victory can be defined in many ways when a campaign delivers multiple layers of success in destroying capabilities that threaten the United States. But the ultimate goal should be enabling the Iranian people to rid the world of this radical, terror-sponsoring regime. And achieving that goal—total victory—seems ever more possible.

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tide06

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Kudos to whoever hacked the Atlantic.

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Apparently all it took to get staff writers at the Atlantic to support something Trump was doing for the first time in his 10+ year political career was to invade Iran in conjunction with Israel.

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When Clinton or Obama are agreeing with a position I have I stop and consider why that is.

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Maybe the WH should stop and ask itself why the Atlantic is in support of his policies in Iran while half his base isn’t.

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By Mark Dubowitz and Richard Goldberg

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Maybe the WH should stop and ask itself why the Atlantic is in support of his policies in Iran while half his base isn’t.

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