We are entering a recession. 2 year inverted yield curve at it's longest ever.

NO WAY, man! The economy is improving and doing great! Job numbers are awesome! At least that's what Biden and MSNBC tell me.

But Joe said I'm just now figuring out how great his economy is

quote:

---

We are entering a recession

---

We have been in a recession for two years.

It has been artificially manipulated and kept in check by the fed and gov to make it less noticeable to everyman, but it's still a recession.

If it doesn't look like Potato Joe will have enough fraud to be reinstalled, there will be no need for the coordination of mitigation. If Trump is somehow sworn in again, they'll let it all fall apart and blame him.

Have you ever heard of "STAGFLATION"?

Apparently it isn’t a recession when you keep moving the goalposts on what a recession consists of.

The general public won't be told that it's a Recession unless and until Trump takes office.

If Biden is reelected, and, I think he will be (mail-in-balloting), the public won't hear anything about any Recession.

quote:

---

First, what is the 2 year inverted yield curve. This is when the 2-year Treasury yield eclipsed the 10-year Treasury yield. This is a major indicator of a coming recession.

It's always just a matter of time. Per the Feds, the average time lag can span 12 to 24 months, according to the San Francisco Fed.

---

Sort of. Any time there has been a recession, it was preceded by not just an inversion, but a reversion (the 10-year going back above the 2-year). Thus far, the average time between when the curve un-inverts and a recession begins is anywhere from 6-12 months.

There's no definite correlation between inversion depth and time length versus severity and/or time length of the following recession, but the worst recessions thus far have been preceded by inversions that lasted for at least 10 months before finally un-inverting for good.

quote:

---

July will be 24 months

---

Yep, we are in unchartered waters here. The previous record was ~16 months from inversion to recession (it did not un-invert until well into the recession, but then re-inverted) and that was from '78-'80. We still haven't hit a recession (defining this as at least two consecutive down quarters where GDP has gone down) for this inversion but we know it's coming.

The real issue is that the inevitable recession isn't the big problem, stagflation is. Stagflation is when GDP is low and sluggish, we have sustained high inflation and Unemployment is going up. With the Q1 GDP numbers being a big drop from Q4 and inflation moving back up closer to 4% (which, it's likely over 5% if we were using 1980 calculations), we have 2/3 of stagflation already happening.

After that, the question is do we rebound or do we hit the consumer debt wall, the consumer credit bubble pops and we barrel into a depression. Only time will tell.