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Message
re: Does the Dow finish the year above or below 30k?
Posted on 11/14/23 at 9:47 am to notiger1997
Posted on 11/14/23 at 9:47 am to notiger1997
Friend,
Can you imagine all the gleeful posts on the other forums if instead of 35,000 we were at 30,000? The pessimism of TD is killing the site.
Yours,
TulaneLSU
Can you imagine all the gleeful posts on the other forums if instead of 35,000 we were at 30,000? The pessimism of TD is killing the site.
Yours,
TulaneLSU
3
Posted on 11/14/23 at 10:09 am to notiger1997
I stay pretty much fully invested all of the time. Most of the gains for the entire year happen on just a handful of days. It's impossible to predict.
Posted on 11/14/23 at 10:58 am to fallguy_1978
The overreaction to news sometimes is funny . Just tells you how much money is on the sidelines that is itching to get back in. All those folks still hoping for the crash and burn to get back in at a lower price. My only regret on days like today are dang wish i had bought a little more few days earlier. 
This post was edited on 11/14/23 at 12:50 pm
Posted on 11/14/23 at 11:56 am to TulaneLSU
quote:Not as much on this board, but elsewhere, it's very obvious to me that people WANT something back to happen.
Friend,
Can you imagine all the gleeful posts on the other forums if instead of 35,000 we were at 30,000? The pessimism of TD is killing the site.
Yours,
TulaneLSU
Posted on 11/14/23 at 8:50 pm to slackster
quote:
If the DOW drops 2800 points in 60 days, something very bad has happened
That’s simply not true.
Caught some downvoted for saying a move of 2800 points down in 60 days does not mean something “very bad” has happened.
Meanwhile, the DJIA is up 2500 points in 3 weeks since this thread was started. Has something “very good” happened?
People are way too emotional on this board at times. The market can and often does move 8% in short periods of time without any really bad or good news. The hyperbole on here can be exhausting.
Posted on 11/14/23 at 9:24 pm to slackster
quote:
Caught some downvoted for saying a move of 2800 points down in 60 days does not mean something “very bad” has happened.
Meanwhile, the DJIA is up 2500 points in 3 weeks since this thread was started. Has something “very good” happened?
People are way too emotional on this board at times. The market can and often does move 8% in short periods of time without any really bad or good news. The hyperbole on here can be exhausting.
Posted on 11/15/23 at 9:44 am to slackster
quote:
Caught some downvoted for saying a move of 2800 points down in 60 days does not mean something “very bad” has happened.
That's a strong over-generalization.
It's all about context. The context isn't just any period, it's Q4 and Q4 is normally a strongly positive period for the Dow. The average move from October 1 - January 1 going back to 1992 is around 3.356967%. During that entire period, there have been only 2 years where the Dow dropped over the course of Q4 8% or more, those were 2007 and 2008 (-10% & -12%, respectively).
quote:
Meanwhile, the DJIA is up 2500 points in 3 weeks since this thread was started. Has something “very good” happened?
Again, context. If we're going off post-COVID numbers, then it's a little under average (the average increase for Q4 post-COVID is 3,797.62), but we're only about halfway through the quarter (caveat: 2020 really skewed things). If we're going with pre-COVID numbers then it's well above average (535.2039). It's even well above average for the entire period (605.9139) as well as the average of all Q4s going back to 2012 (942.7).
Within that context of the history of Dow movement in Q4, yes a drop of 2,500-2,800 points over the quarter would be far more likely to indicate something bad is happening (or about to happen) than not.
Does it mean something "very good" is happening? Again, context. What are we seeing with CPI, wages, consumer debt, PPI, Unemployment, etc trends?
This post was edited on 11/15/23 at 9:47 am
Posted on 11/20/23 at 4:34 pm to notiger1997
OVER!!!! 
Posted on 11/20/23 at 9:18 pm to slackster
The irony is I think it’s more likely now at whatever it is than when it was at 32k.
MT Sentiment Indicator says down is the path that would confuse the most people.
MT Sentiment Indicator says down is the path that would confuse the most people.
This post was edited on 11/20/23 at 9:19 pm
Posted on 11/30/23 at 4:51 pm to SloaneRanger
Bump
Posted on 11/30/23 at 4:52 pm to Bard
quote:
That's a strong over-generalization.
That was my point.
A 2800 point move, by itself, doesn’t mean diddly squat about whether some very good or very bad has happened.
Posted on 12/6/23 at 6:19 pm to notiger1997
quote:
Over/under
quote:
36,000
I say over 36,000.
I'm thinking about buying stock but I get the feeling that every one is buying certificate of deposits.
Posted on 12/6/23 at 7:56 pm to SloaneRanger
I have a question. Everyone is saying how bad the economy is doing or that we are in a recession etc
How can the market be doing so well in-spite of what the economy is doing?
How can the market be doing so well in-spite of what the economy is doing?
Posted on 12/6/23 at 8:16 pm to Gorilla Ball
General retail markets have decoupled from macro economic conditions due to an inflated M2 supply over the past 15 years (approx 5x).
House of cards. (But real GDP growth can erase the sins of the past, will take decades. See Japan in the late 80s—> now).
House of cards. (But real GDP growth can erase the sins of the past, will take decades. See Japan in the late 80s—> now).
Posted on 12/6/23 at 8:25 pm to triggeredmillennial
I wish I was smart enough to understand what you just said. I’m a saver and investor and I’ve done pretty well, but I’m ignorant when talking about the economy.
Thanks for replying
Thanks for replying
Posted on 12/7/23 at 8:24 am to Gorilla Ball
quote:
How can the market be doing so well in-spite of what the economy is doing?
The general market is a reflection of where investors think the economy is going, not where it is.
Posted on 12/7/23 at 10:55 am to vistajay
Ok thanks
Posted on 12/7/23 at 12:16 pm to TulaneLSU
quote:
Can you imagine all the gleeful posts on the other forums if instead of 35,000 we were at 30,000? The pessimism of TD is killing the site.
I more and more believe the market really is all just national psychology. There is ample reason to be bullish right now on the future of the US. There are also plenty of reasons to be concerned.
But partisanship has so thoroughly penetrated everything we can collectively see straight anymore.
My 93 year old grandmother gave the best prognostication about 18 months ago. She said “if we are entering a recession it’s the first time I’ve ever seen one with help wanted signs on every door”
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