re: LSU deferring vs Arkansas last week.

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opportunity to “steal a possession” by scoring at the end of the first half and then also receiving the second half kickoff.

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Oh I get it I just think there are so many factors that can go into the data that could affect it.

I personally hate how analytical football has become with going for it in your own territory, 2 pt conversions etc.

If I was the coach I would always do the least popular choice at that moment so I knew almost for sure what would be happening to start the game.

Things you'll hear a HC say to his assistant in the booth just before halftime BEFORE he says "Hot damn!!!!! We get to KICKOFF to start the third quarter!!!!

1) "You know those recruiting trips I always send you on? I'm banging your wife EVERY TIME you take one of those trips."

2) " I'm gonna murder your whole motherflucking family, and make you watch."

3) "I AM THRILLED that we're receiving the kick to start the third quarter."

YOU DO NOT EVER want to kick the ball to start the third quarter. PERIOD!!!!

Deferring is generally the right call. One exception is if your defense is especially vulnerable to the big downfield strike. Given our defensive secondary, it's a bit less clear that deferring is a no brainer. But I'd still probably do it.

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Over the 778 games in our sample, the team that receives the second half kickoff was able to score in the last minute of the first half and on their opening second half drive 12% of the time. When compared to the 0% chance of stealing a possession if you receive the opening kickoff, this becomes a small built-in advantage to deferring to the second half. 

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This is a little misleading. The “stolen possession” in the case of receiving the opening kickoff would be a score at the beginning of the game followed by a score to end the game.

At the same time, I suspect this illustrates the difference. Teams are generally going to be much more focused on clock management at the end of the game than they are at the end of the first half. In other words, you’re probably less likely to get that “extra” possession at the end of the game because the opposing team is going to be paying closer attention to the game clock. At least that’s my theory.

If you look at the 3 games where Kelly decided take the ball to start the game:

2022 FSU
LSU scores a FG on the first possession of first half, and a touchdown on the last possession of the game (meeting the “stolen possession” definition referenced).

FSU does not score to end the first half. Does not meet the “stolen possession” definition.

2022 Mississippi State
LSU doesn’t score on the first possession or the last possession of the game. Does not meet the “stolen possession” definition.

Mississippi State doesn’t score before the half or after the half, also doesn’t meet the definition.

2022 Tennessee
LSU muffs the opening kickoff and throws an interception to end the game.

Tennessee kicks a FG right before half and gets a TD on the first drive of second half. They also got a TD to start the game because of the muff, so they got the best of both worlds.

So if anything it worked out against FSU (in terms of scoring possessions - we lost anyway), was a wash against Mississippi State, and hurt us against Tennessee. At the same time, I can understand the reasoning behind taking the ball in both the Tennessee and Mississippi State games. We knew Tennessee’s offense was going to be a problem, so I can see the argument for trying to score first to avoid having to “play from behind” against them. I think Mississippi State was a game where you could break their spirit by going up early.

I didn’t agree with it against FSU. But it actually worked out in our favor that time so

I think we need to move our DLman around and have your heavy sets and fast sets for 3rd down plays. Similar to what Aranda would do with the front. Change it up for each team. We have the personnel to do this in the front seven, so be more creative using them. Not this generic 4-3 or 3-4 guys in the same spots doing the same things.

Put Smith on the edge, put Wingo and Jefferson in the middle, let Swinson/Womack and Perkins do their thing. Put Smith on the Edge with Wingo and Jefferson in the middle and Ogouhfo/Shand on the other end for heavy sets. Let Weeks, Speights and Penn clean up on heavy sets or come on different designed blitzes.

For lighter sets you put Wingo, Jefferson, Womack/Swinson with Perkins on the edge and Weeks in the middle. Your best DBs in coverage and stop putting the DB’s 8 yards off on 3rd and long. Bring those guys up and leave your best safety high, that’s it. Be physical as hell with all the WRs and allow your front to get to the QB by not giving space to throw the ball.

Let Harris man up and let Stamps man up on 3rd downs. He doesn’t have to do anything but stay on his man. Play man on the outside and let the safeties play zone but allow them to jam the inside WR or TE when they come off the line. The LBs clean up the check downs. If someone doesn’t have a man, let him delay blitz or follow the QB but also cover his area underneath by flowing with the QBs eyes. You can still drop a man spying the QB just stay in line with him and when he gets past the LOS you go get his arse. He can’t throw at that point. They need to play smarter. You see a ball fall to the ground, you go get that ball, no matter what you think, especially if they don’t stop the play.

We missed a fumble because no one reacted last week. I’ve seen so many damn missed recoveries or missed interceptions because our players will celebrate a damn tackle. Just do your job and celebrate after you get off the field, halftime or end of game. Do your job and get back in your position. That will destroy an offenses will to play faster than you celebrating a tackle. You get a sack, fine, point to your team on the sidelines, point to the fans, then you get your butt back ready to go. Pile up those tackles and sacks then celebrate. LSU misses so many defensive plays because they’re not focused and are too ready to boast instead of just doing their jobs. I need to go talk to these players.

That’s when you know you’re a tough SOB. When you make a TFL, recover a fumble, cause a fumble, take the ball away, sack the QB, being a terror to an offense and you don’t give a shite. All you want to do, is do it again. That’s when you’re a bad SOB. These offenses feel that shite. So make them feel y’all! Get back in your position and act like you did nothing and you ready to do nothing all day! That’s focus, that’s intensity, that’s a destructive defense, that’s scary shite! Go be that this week. Make Ole Miss know they don’t have a chance. If they get lucky, fine. Come back and do it again.

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I prefer to defer but I really doubt there is any analytics that support kicking or receiving matters much.

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I read a study on this once and it was almost a push. There were some slight advantages to deferring found in some instances, though.

Not sure where I stand on this. So I humbly defer to the next poster.

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any other thoughts?

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None of it matters. LSU was able to score back to back because they deferred. But had they taken the kickoff maybe they would have been leading at halftime.

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Interestingly, as the deferral percentage among teams rises, the win percentage caps at roughly 0.5.

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This is from Bruin Sports Analytics. And 0.5 means 50%. THERE IS NO EFFECT ON WINNING PERCENTAGE. Which was obvious to me 50 years ago when I was 10.