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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 4/16/24 at 8:52 am to AU86
Posted on 4/16/24 at 8:52 am to AU86
quote:
First of all thank you for your answer. If this is what that old fool and the idiots who work for him believe that is incredible. Have the sanctions cut off the oil sales? The loop holes and work arounds on these sanctions have made them far less effective. Russia can sustain this war for "As long as it takes".
I don't agree with the strategy, but... Russia is selling less oil, and selling that oil at a lower price, likely selling at a loss. I don't think we'll truly appreciate the extent of the damage Russia did to its economy to gain a marginally larger share of resources that they already had in Ukraine for years.
Personally, I think Biden could have utilized lend-lease to give Ukraine whatever they needed in '22 and '23, boosting US production tremendously and out-producing Russia with US industry.
This war likely only ends in 1 of 2 ways: Russia getting beaten so badly that they have no choice but to retreat (i.e. economic pain, loss of life, loss of international access) OR Ukraine being defeated.
The US needs to boost production, give Ukraine more weapons and see that #1 happens as a deterrent to other bad actors in the world, IMO.
quote:
Biden and his merry group of fools have never been serious about this. same with Scholz and his socialists in Germany. Macron is all talk and will say anything because he wants the spotlight on him.
I'll say this: recent polls show that the majority of French youth are willing to fight/die in Ukraine to protect Ukraine from the Russians.
Macron is not "all talk," and he's actually spurring French government action. Three months ago I would have laughed at French involvement. I'm not so sure France won't have boots on the ground within the next 90 days, TBH.
4
Posted on 4/16/24 at 9:02 am to RuLSU
Anton Gerashchenko
@Gerashchenko_en
Anders Nielsen, a military analyst at the Royal Danish Defense College, on Ukrainian attacks against Russian refineries:
So far Russia has not reached a critical point, but if Ukraine has managed to reduce its refining capacity by 12-14% in a few months, imagine what will happen by the end of the year.
Details on economic implications
@Gerashchenko_en
Anders Nielsen, a military analyst at the Royal Danish Defense College, on Ukrainian attacks against Russian refineries:
So far Russia has not reached a critical point, but if Ukraine has managed to reduce its refining capacity by 12-14% in a few months, imagine what will happen by the end of the year.
Details on economic implications
Posted on 4/16/24 at 9:28 am to El Segundo Guy
quote:
I've been good with that. It's evident though that that is not enough.
It’s obvious to me that Biden slow rolled things instead of aiding Ukraine full go from jump. Then he lacked leadership to keep up the pace and now we are doing little or nothing.
quote:
Within a few months, we could be supplying and financing 3 conflicts. Ukraine, Israel and possibly Taiwan. At some point, we might actually need some 155mm rounds ourselves.
I understand your concerns. to get Biden out of office and put a new administration in. We faced similar issues years ago. We ran off Jimmy Carter and replaced him with Ronald Reagan. I hope Trump is up to it.
Posted on 4/16/24 at 9:29 am to cypher
quote:
So far Russia has not reached a critical point, but if Ukraine has managed to reduce its refining capacity by 12-14% in a few months, imagine what will happen by the end of the year.
Ukraine has hit most of the major refineries. It would need 3X the strikes to double present reduction. Russia has a lot of refineries the size of Placid in Port Allen or Alon in Krotz Springs. They did buy a lot of 2,000 BPD refineries, built by a company in Houston in the early 1990s. The company was never paid more than a down payment (likely 1/3). These are all just topping plants taking a naphtha cut, diesel cut, and heavy fuel oil (Mazut) cut. The naphtha would be MAYBE an 80 RON (octane) gasoline.
Posted on 4/16/24 at 9:43 am to RuLSU
so much bs. French Yutes want to get killed in Ukraine???????????????
Posted on 4/16/24 at 10:21 am to Trevaylin
quote:
so much bs. French Yutes want to get killed in Ukraine???????????????
LINK
quote:
"Army: These three figures which illustrate a “renewed patriotism” among young French people"
quote:
Among the striking figures from this sociological study, the first on the subject since the start of the Russian invasion in Ukraine on February 24, 2022. To the question: “if the protection of France required that the country engage in war in Ukraine, would you be ready to commit to defending your country? », 51% of those questioned answered “yes”, including 17% “yes absolutely” and 34 “yes perhaps”. Nearly a quarter of boys (24%) answered “definitely yes”, compared to 12% of girls.
Posted on 4/16/24 at 10:27 am to RuLSU
quote:
I'll say this: recent polls show that the majority of French youth are willing to fight/die in Ukraine to protect Ukraine from the Russians.
quote:
To the question: “if the protection of France required that the country engage in war in Ukraine, would you be ready to commit to defending your country?
This is comical. Surely you don't actually believe this?
Yeah, once Russia takes Ukraine they will easily pass through 5 more countries on their way to France
Posted on 4/16/24 at 10:33 am to CitizenK
quote:
Buying from outside Russia, going to 80 octane rating means burned up engines down in the near future, even greater economic disruption.
The US govt did this with ethanol decades ago, your point?
Posted on 4/16/24 at 10:35 am to CitizenK
quote:
Reduced refining capacity means less oil and less income on a shattered economy.
Yeah, they are out producing the entire western world in artillery, its collapsing.
Speaking of, did you see where, according to bank of ukraine, their economy grew 5.7% in 2023, so why do they need our money??????
Posted on 4/16/24 at 10:36 am to ColtRange
The GDP of France is double that of Russia. Their demographics not horrible like Russia's and trade is important to France. Trade with Ukraine is a good thing for France and a Ukrainian victory is all but a death knell to Russia so it may never be a threat to any of its neighbors again.
Nice try Igor Ivanovich
Nice try Igor Ivanovich
Posted on 4/16/24 at 10:52 am to CitizenK
quote:
The GDP of France is double that of Russia. Their demographics not horrible like Russia's and trade is important to France. Trade with Ukraine is a good thing for France and a Ukrainian victory is all but a death knell to Russia so it may never be a threat to any of its neighbors again.
This has nothing to do with what I said. Also, Ukraine isn't even close to a critical trade partner for France. In 2021, they accounted for 0.0013%
Nice try Karine Jean-Pierre.
Posted on 4/16/24 at 10:57 am to CitizenK
Russia blows up the largest power plant sourced by kyiv. I am told by the experts here that it does not matter all residents have generators. Yet the govt of ukraine says they are setting all time records for electricity consumption. Hmmmm both cant be true at the same time.
I say again, ukraine might worry about its own citizens rather than wasting precious munitions bombing refineries 600 miles away.
I say again, ukraine might worry about its own citizens rather than wasting precious munitions bombing refineries 600 miles away.
Posted on 4/16/24 at 11:14 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
I say again, ukraine might worry about its own citizens rather than wasting precious munitions bombing refineries 600 miles away.
Does that same logic apply to Israel and Iran?
What about back in the day when we flew 1000s of miles to wreck havoc on Japan?
Posted on 4/16/24 at 11:42 am to RuLSU
quote:
I'm not so sure France won't have boots on the ground within the next 90 days, TBH.
So how does that work? If a NATO country attacks a non NATO country, are they still able to draw everyone else in with article 5?
Posted on 4/16/24 at 11:56 am to ticklechain
quote:
So how does that work? If a NATO country attacks a non NATO country, are they still able to draw everyone else in with article 5?
Nope they are on their own, Didnt work out so well at Waterloo. Also tried to rope in the Spanish to help them and that didnt work out so well at a place called Trafalgar.
Posted on 4/16/24 at 12:59 pm to trinidadtiger
Chinese analyst says that Russia will be defeated.
Thanks, LeClerc, looks like I quoted the link so now fixed.
LINK
Thanks, LeClerc, looks like I quoted the link so now fixed.
LINK
This post was edited on 4/16/24 at 1:31 pm
Posted on 4/16/24 at 1:04 pm to CitizenK
Fix your link CK.
Posted on 4/16/24 at 1:07 pm to trinidadtiger
quote:
I say again, ukraine might worry about its own citizens rather than wasting precious munitions bombing refineries 600 miles away.
I am about as anti-Ukraine aid as anyone on here, but its not like having someone fly a drone to attack a refinery is stopping them from also helping their own citizens.
Posted on 4/16/24 at 2:10 pm to CitizenK
quote:
In time it will be forced to withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.
That is a quality satire piece, thanks for posting CitizenK.
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