re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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I'm not a fan of Biden's plan, just to be 100% clear.

IMO, this funding, if it actually happens will give Ukraine a lot of ammunition, artillery, etc. That will help Ukraine stem Russian gains.

Biden thinks Russia will run out of money before Ukraine runs out of men. That's the strategy: force Russia to retreat, in essence, as the costs get too high.

That's not an endorsement of Biden's plan, BTW.

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Washington Post: US request not to target Russian oil refineries 'irritated' Zelensky

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If the partners say: “We will give you 7 Patriot batteries tomorrow, but we have a request to you: you don’t have to do this and that.” Then there is something to talk about. And if you don’t have these systems, you don’t have a care package and you’re asked not to do something, then there’s no subject matter, then everyone survives as best they can.”

-Kuleba

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Take Harris and Biden’s side. You fit right in.

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From Putinist to Ridin with Biden, quite a 180 in a span of two days.

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I have just spoken with the
@HouseGOP
conference on my plan to address national security supplemental legislation on the growing security crises.

This week, we will consider separate bills with a structured and germane amendment process to:

•Fund our ally Israel
•Support Ukraine in its war against Russian aggression
•Strengthen our allies in the Indo-Pacific
•Pass additional measures to counter our adversaries and strengthen our national security

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House Republicans plan to try to pass four bills this week to send aid to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan, according to four sources familiar with the plan. 

The fourth bill will include a ban on TikTok, a bill to sell of seized Russian assets, a Lend-Lease act for military aid, convertible loans for humanitarian relief and other provisions. 

The GOP leadership will try to move this plan under one rule, said the sources. 

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Writing in the FT, Czech Prime Minister Fiala confirms that the Czech Republic has officially contracted 180,000 artillery shells for Ukraine and is working to secure a further 300,000.

"The scheme is deceptively simple, which is why it has achieved significant success so soon"

"Over the past two years, we have supplied them with more than 1mn large-calibre ammunition rounds. This shows that our current initiative is not a one-off stunt. We are striving to create a robust ammunition supply mechanism"

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NEW: There was a fire at the Army's ammunition plant in Scranton, Pa. today - a key hub for making 155mm rounds.

General Dynamics helps run the plant, and tells me the fire was small, and has been put out. Not a concern.

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Russia is considering a return to producing low-quality gasoline to make up for shortages caused by Ukrainian attacks on its oil refineries. However, this is likely to cause damage to vehicles, which owners may find difficult to repair due to a shortage of spare parts.

Reuters and the Russian newspaper Kommersant report that the Russian government is considering temporarily suspending fuel environmental standards to enable gasoline to be produced at a lower quality, or to include environmentally damaging octane-boosting additives.

Since 2016, Russia has only allowed the production of at least Euro-5 standard gasoline (a standard set by the European Union which is also in effect in a number of non-EU, Asian and South American countries). Modern vehicles are designed to run only on compliant fuel.

Most of Russia's oil refineries were built in the 1940s and 1970s and a number were modernised in the 2000s, increasing Russia's gasoline output and quality. However, the Ukrainian campaign appears to have disrupted several of the most modern refineries.

According to Reuters, the Ukrainian attacks have reduced Russian gasoline output by an estimated 14%. In response, the Russian government is reportedly exploring options to roll back fuel standards to enable outdated but intact refineries to make up the shortfall.

Russia is reportedly considering increasing the amount of octane in its gasoline by adding toluene and the environmentally damaging monomethylaniline (MMA), which was banned in 2016.

However, as experts have noted to the Russian outlet 'Agency. News', this would have highly damaging effects on vehicles. Jan Heitzeer of Russia's National Automobile Union says that low-quality gasoline will seriously reduce the service life of engines, especially diesels.

"When one of the 'experts' say that we have few cars with Euro-6 fuel, he is deeply mistaken. We have a lot with Euro-5 and quite a few with Euro-6. Well, we probably have nowhere to go, we'll have to drive, but we will have to prepare for not the most pleasant times."

A Skoda repair specialist says that "most likely, there will be problems with burnout of pistons, valves and other elements. The fuel will burn poorly, continue to burn in the exhaust manifold, and the temperature there will be significantly higher than it should be.

"All catalysers may burn out, causing the lambda probe to read incorrect readings that will go to the engine control unit. And then it goes in a circle – errors, unstable functioning, and so on."

The Skoda specialist suggested that the situation might end up being like that in Uzbekistan, where the antiquated Soviet-era 'Normal-80' low-octane fuel is still widley used.

"They use gasoline like our old 80. On modern engines, especially in Skoda Kodiak cars, pistons burn out in almost every second car with a mileage of 40,000 kilometers or more."

Replacing damaged components is likely to be more difficult and expensive due to the effect of sanctions, particularly for Western-made vehicles. Kommersant suggests that the proposals are unlikely to be accepted due to the amount of harm they could cause.

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Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian officials continue to warn that US security assistance is vital to Ukrainian forces’ ability to defend against current and future Russian offensive operations forecasted to begin in late spring and summer.

A senior Estonian military official described intensified Russian offensive frontline operations and deep rear area strike campaigns as intended to degrade both Ukraine’s will to fight and Western unity.

Russian forces continue to adapt their drone tactics along the frontline as part of an offense-defense arms race to mitigate Ukrainian technological adaptions to offset Russian materiel advantages along the frontline.

Russian officials doubled down on efforts to amplify Iran’s “justification” for the April 13 large-scale Iranian strikes against Israel that falsely equates them with an April 1 Israeli strike targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials in Damascus.

A Russian insider source claimed that Russian officials are preparing to redeploy some former Wagner Group elements serving in Africa Corps to Belgorod Oblast.

Crimean occupation administration head Sergei Aksyonov passed a decree restricting migrant labor in occupied Crimea, undermining the Kremlin’s effort to mitigate labor shortages.

Russian state media seized on Georgian protests against a proposed law similar to Russia’s “foreign agent” law, likely as part of Kremlin efforts to amplify political discord in Georgia.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Siversk (northeast of Bakhmut), Avdiivka, and west of Donetsk City on April 15.

Russian prosecution rates of men who had fled compulsory military service have reportedly increased since fall 2022.

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