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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 11/6/23 at 11:36 am to Errerrerrwere
Posted on 11/6/23 at 11:36 am to Errerrerrwere
quote:
Does any of this still sound like a stalemate?
No, it sounds like a fairy tale.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 11:49 am to doubleb
Which part? Because Ukraine begging the world now for foot soldiers says (make that screams) alot.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 11:52 am to Errerrerrwere
Besides just a few weeks ago you were trying to treat your cognitive dissonance with saying how Ukraine losing all that land and Putin not moving forward was a stalemate!
Posted on 11/6/23 at 11:55 am to Athanatos
quote:
If the war goes on, I think Russia collapses economically by 2025, but the Ukrainians may not be inclined to fight that long.
Russia raised rates to 15% which kills their government borrowing, domestic/consumer economy, etc.
Ukraine's desire to keep fighting seems solid. I think they're just desperate to avoid falling under Russian influence.
Any proposed peace deal that doesn't let Ukraine join the EU is DOA. EU ascension is in the constitution of Ukraine.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 12:30 pm to Errerrerrwere
quote:
Errerrerrwere
You really are terrible with numbers aren't you. First it was $113B was half a trillion not it's all of this
quote:
Half a million Ukrainians dead
Giving you the benefit of the doubt you are probably referencing Troop Deaths and Injuries in Ukraine War Near 500,000, U.S. Officials Say
but you missed two key things. The first is that this is inclusive of WIA and the second is that it is for both Russia and Ukraine combined
quote:
Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.
quote:
billions in infrastructure gone
The one part you got right because you just reference the volume and not an actual figure
quote:
50% of Ukraines are either refugees, dead or under Russian control.
Just wrong again
Ukraine has a population of 43.79M as of 2021 (down from 45.27M in 2014 before all of this began). You claim that 21.9M are either dead, refugess or under Russian control.
Let's see
6.232M are refugees globally
The highest realistic death rate for the military I've seen is around 121,000 for Ukraine. But just to show you how far off you are, let's assume ALL 700,000 active and 900,000 reservist in the miliary suddenly died
Civilian deaths are just under 10,000
So that gets us up to 7.84M
quote:
under Russian control.
Russia claims controls over 5 oblasts, but they only fully control 1. Again to show how far off you are let's assume the full populations of each.
Crimea - 2,416,856
Luhansk - 2,104,531
Donetsk - 4,062,839
Zaporizhahia -1,640,876
Kherson - 1,002,923
LINK 1 LINK 2
In total that is 19.07M and makes some very LARGE assumptions and still doesn't amount to 50%
This article has a "worst case" number that still doesn't get you to 50% and doesn't overestimate the numbers like I did. It places the number closer to 11M have left or are under Russian control.
quote:
With Russia now occupying about a fifth of the country's territory, Libanova estimates the population in areas controlled by Kyiv could already be as low as 28 million, down from a government estimate of 41 million before the Feb. 24, 2022 invasion. The estimates exclude Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, which had around 2 million people at the start of that year.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 12:37 pm to cypher
quote:
Russian Ship Askold stationed in Kerch after it was hit by a Ukrainian launched SCALP-EG Cruise Missile
They fcked that ship up
Posted on 11/6/23 at 12:53 pm to StormyMcMan
Like I said, his post was s fairy tale, a Russian fairy tale.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 1:16 pm to Errerrerrwere
quote:
Errerrerrwere
quote:
Serious question: when a large, aggressive state invades a smaller neighbor, should the victim state in that situation just roll over and submit? Or should they fight back?
Posted on 11/6/23 at 1:17 pm to No Colors
The Russian supporters say “surrender”.
There’s no use getting people killed.
There’s no use getting people killed.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 1:27 pm to cypher
quote:
Russian Ship Askold stationed in Kerch after it was hit by a Ukrainian launched SCALP-EG Cruise Missile
Placing a big order for Bondo now.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 6:20 pm to Errerrerrwere
quote:
Heard it from a political insider
Roflmao
Most hysterical comment yet and that includes the biolabs and discarded q theories.
This post was edited on 11/6/23 at 6:23 pm
Posted on 11/6/23 at 7:06 pm to cypher
Posted on 11/6/23 at 7:18 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
Purported video of the actual attack:
Best part is how Russia used the ship to intercept the two missile……
Posted on 11/6/23 at 8:38 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
It's getting real in South Kherson. Ukraine is now moving armor across the Dnipro: LINK
This is interesting, and it's interesting for two reasons:
1) Ukraine still have a lot of their western equipment, because they stopped running into death traps in July.
2) Russia likely had enough time to fortify positions to prevent a serious breakthrough in the south.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 8:39 pm to REG861
quote:
Most hysterical comment yet and that includes the biolabs and discarded q theories.
Someone actually believed the biolabs stuff?
Which part? Did they believe in the "bio-engineered death pigeons?"
Posted on 11/6/23 at 8:50 pm to RuLSU
ISW Update
quote:
Imprisoned ardent nationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin argued that Russian forces will be “even less capable of offensive operations than they are now” by spring 2024 given the current nature of Russian offensive operations along the frontline.[1] Girkin’s wife, Miroslava Reginskaya, published a hand-written letter from Girkin dated October 26, in which he summarized the frontline situation in Ukraine for the month of October. Girkin claimed that the situation for Russian forces is “gradually deteriorating” and that Russian forces are showcasing “growing weakness (compared to [Ukraine’s] capabilities,” despite Russia’s “generally successful repulsion” of the Ukrainian offensive over the summer and fall of 2023
Girkin suggested that Russian efforts to repel Ukrainian localized attacks across the frontline and simultaneous fall-winter offensive operations will likely degrade Russian offensive and defensive potential by spring 2024. Girkin noted that Russian forces would need to spend the rest of the fall-winter campaign on the defensive to try to eliminate emerging operational crises – such as the Ukrainian presence in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast. Girkin argued that Russian forces will continue to be “incapable of any broad offensive actions” even if Ukrainian forces are unable to “knock out” Russian frontline units, fail to achieve a breakthrough over the fall-winter season, and are exhausted
Girkin implied that additional Western military aid to Ukraine and the lack of mobilization in Russia could allow Ukraine to end positional warfare and conduct successful offensive operations in 2024. Girkin stated that Ukrainian forces are continuing to use Western-provided materiel to target the Russian rear and even destroy the Berdyansk airfield in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast against the backdrop of Russian offensives in Avdiivka. Girkin implied that Ukrainian forces would continue to devastate the Russian rear over the winter as Russian forces continued to push for limited offensive operations. Girkin stated that once Ukraine receives Western-provided F-16 fighter jets, Ukrainian forces could have localized advantages for a short period of time on any section of the frontline. Girkin added that Ukraine could be “seriously strengthened in military-technical terms” with Western military equipment.
Russian milbloggers appear to be grappling with how Russian forces can overcome wider operational challenges in Ukraine, likely in response to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi’s recent essay on the subject of “positional warfare.” Select milbloggers argued that specific changes in battlefield tactics will allow Russian forces to achieve their desired operational objectives in the current difficult operational environment
Select Russian milbloggers specifically argued that the use of small infantry assault groups will allow both Russian and Ukrainian forces to better achieve operational objectives along the front. Russian milbloggers argued on November 3 and 6 that concentrated attacks with large forces attempting to break through a stable defense to full depth is increasingly ineffective and suggested that small infantry groups with comprehensive support may be more effective at achieving significant operational effects in the current operational environment
Russian sources suggested that some Ukrainian forces may already be fielding the small infantry assault groups that these sources are advocating for. A Russian milblogger noted that Ukrainian forces already appear to be employing this adaptation in ongoing ground operations on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast, where the milblogger claimed that small Ukrainian assault groups operating at the operational-tactical level have been able to divert considerable Russian combat resources and attention from elsewhere along the front
The war in Ukraine is likely exacerbating an emerging identity crisis within Russian society resulting from tensions between Russian identity and Russian nationalism. Russian "Vostok" Battalion Commander and Russian Orthodox ideologue Alexander Khodakovsky wrote two long Telegram posts on November 6 about what it means to be "Russian," acknowledging a schism in Russian national identity that has largely resulted from the ideological arguments advanced to justify and mobilize support for Russia's war in Ukraine
Khodakovsky's musings offer insight into some socio-cultural implications of Russia's pursuit of ideological goals in its war in Ukraine. In several ways, the war has narrowed the conception of what it means to be Russian among Russian ideologues, particularly as concepts of identity are increasingly defined by hyper-nationalist and pro-war information space voices who amplify the Kremin's ideological line on the war and redirect it at domestic audiences
Russian forces conducted missile and drone strikes against rear areas in southern Ukraine on the evening of November 5 and on the night of November 5 to 6 as well as the largest series of glide bomb strikes to date against targets in Kherson Oblast on November 5. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces launched a Kh-59 cruise missile at Dnipro City and a Kh-31P anti-radar missile at Odesa City on November 5
The Russian military appears to have increased its stock of high-precision missiles due to reported increases in Russian missile production more rapidly than previous forecasts had suggested. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Vadym Skibitskyi stated on November 6 that Russian forces have a total of 870 high-precision operational-strategic and strategic missiles in reserve. Skibitskyi previously stated on August 28 that Russian forces had a total of 585 long-range missiles in reserve, indicating that Russian forces have increased their missile reserves by 285 missiles since August.
Skibitskyi also commented on Russian domestic drone production on November 6, stating that the GUR has not observed the movement of Shahed drones from Iran to Russia as Iran has fulfilled its first Shahed supply contracts with Russia.[37] Skibitskyi stated that Iran may still send small batches of Shaheds to Russia, however.[38] Skibitskyi also stated that Russia has begun to increase the domestic assembly of Shahed drones with components from Iran including at the factory in Alabuga, Tatarstan Republic
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions
Posted on 11/6/23 at 8:50 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Imprisoned ardent nationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin argued that Russian forces will be “even less capable of offensive operations than they are now” by spring 2024 given the current nature of Russian offensive operations along the frontline.
Russian milbloggers appear to be grappling with how Russian forces can overcome wider operational challenges in Ukraine, likely in response to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi’s recent essay on the subject of “positional warfare,” and not coming to optimistic conclusions.
Select Russian milbloggers specifically argued that the use of small infantry assaults groups will allow both Russian and Ukrainian forces to better achieve operational objectives along the front. Russian sources suggested that some Ukrainian forces may already be fielding the small infantry assault groups that these sources are advocating for.
The war in Ukraine is likely exacerbating an emerging identity crisis within Russian society resulting from tensions between Russian identity and Russian nationalism.
Russian forces conducted missile and drones strikes against rear areas in southern Ukraine on the evening of November 5 and on the night of November 5 to 6 as well as the largest series of glide bomb strikes to date against targets in Kherson Oblast on November 5.
The Russian military appears to have increased its stock of high-precision missiles due to reported increases in Russian missile production more rapidly than previous forecasts had suggested.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on November 6.
Russian occupation officials are expanding military recruitment and registration offices in occupied territories, likely in support of coercive mobilization efforts.
Russian officials continue to weaponize youth engagement programs to consolidate social control of occupied areas of Ukraine.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 9:49 pm to doubleb
quote:
Like I said, his post was s fairy tale, a Russian fairy tale
Let me know when you guys are winning?
Member when they were marching all the way to Moscow? I member.
Seems like years ago.
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