re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Posted on 9/4/23 at 8:29 am
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Breaking: There is a risk that Romanian territory was accidentally hit in last night's Russian drone attacks on Ukraine, Romanian Foreign Minister says - Reuters

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Depending on what exactly happened here I wouldn't be shocked if Romania starts putting some AD on the border and covers some Ukrainian towns in the process.

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Romania has declared an ‘Aerial Interdiction area’ along the Danube River Delta.

No-fly zone now covers 20-30kms from the River Danube and up to 4,000 meters.

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Constantin Spînu, MApN spokesman: Ever since the start of Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine, flight restrictions have been imposed in the airspace bordering the entire border with Ukraine, from May 2022. There were the following limits - a depth of 8 km in space national air, and up to the height of 1,000 meters.

So the space was restricted only between these coordinates.

After the intensification of Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports, measures were necessary to extend these restrictions, to ensure a capacity to monitor and control the use of airspace, as effectively as possible.

That is why, as of yesterday, the Ministry of Transport together with the Ministry of National Defense as responsible for airspace management, sent a notification regarding the addition of flight restrictions, i.e. on top of those that already existed, to the competent civil and military aeronautical authorities, i.e. raising the height at 4,000 meters and a depth of 20 to 30 kilometers inside national airspace, depending on the actual configuration of the border.

This area is notified by very precise coordinates to all airspace users.

Piloted or unmanned aircraft are not allowed to fly in this area, with the exception of state aircraft, including SMURD, and aircraft in emergency situations, and, very importantly, the flight of civil aircraft in the control area of Tulcea aerodrome is not affected by this restriction .

If there is an unauthorized flight in this area, for other non-state aircraft, including SMURD and aircraft in emergency situations, we will apply the procedures that are in force, those of air policing, which is a combat service permanent.

"Starting from Wednesday, September 13, the Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure together with the Ministry of National Defense, as responsible for the management of the national airspace, imposed additional flight restrictions in the airspace bordering the border with Ukraine in the northern area of Dobrogea, between Sulina and Gala?i, at a depth of 20-30 km inside the national airspace, up to a height of 4,000 m", reports MApN.

" The notification regarding the addition of flight restrictions - type NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) was sent through the official communication channels by the competent civil and military aeronautical authorities.

No manned or unmanned aircraft are allowed to fly in these restricted areas, except for state aircraft (including SMURD and emergency aircraft).

Flight restrictions in the airspace bordering the entire border with Ukraine have been imposed since May 2022, after the start of the war of aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine, at a depth of 8 km inside the national airspace, up to a height of 1,000 m .

Against the background of the intensification of Russian attacks on the Ukrainian ports on the Danube, measures were necessary to extend the restrictions to ensure a more effective capacity to monitor and control the use of airspace.

We note that the flight of civil aircraft in the aerodrome control area of Tulcea airport is not affected", the MApN press release also states.

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There will definitely be no new mobilization in Russia in the fall of 2023, said Yury Shvytkin, deputy chairman of the State Duma defense committee.

"There will be no mobilization. As of today, mobilization is not expected - neither the second, nor the third stage, nor general mobilization," he stressed.

The official is convinced that the army's needs will be fully covered by those who go to serve under contract.

Do you remember how past similar statements ended? Yes, Putin announced "partial mobilization" in Russia.

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The Cabinet of Ministers submitted a bill proposing to withdraw 120 billion UAH from local budgets for the purchase of drones and weapons production.

Prime Minister of Ukraine Den?s Shmyhal announced this.

“During the full-scale invasion, local budget revenues from military personal income tax increased eightfold. The government bill will allow us to attract (for drones and weapons - ed.) 25.8 billion UAH this year and 93.7 billion UAH next [...] ", Shmygal clarified.

According to him, more than UAH 200 billion already accumulated in the accounts of local budgets and budgetary institutions will remain at the disposal of local authorities.

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Lt. General Kyrylo Budanov, is playing fricking chess while Russia can’t even figure out how to play checkers.

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Video of the landing craft Minsk which shows a lot of damage to the superstructure. This is not the side that is off the blocks/cribbing.

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Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and around Bakhmut and reportedly advanced south of Bakhmut on September 14. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces achieved unspecified partial successes near Bakhmut, Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut), Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut), and Kurdyumivka (13km southwest of Bakhmut)

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian air defense system near occupied Yevpatoria, Crimea, on September 14, suggesting that there may be systemic tactical failures with Russian air defense systems in occupied Crimea. The Department of Strategic Communications of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated that Ukrainian forces struck the location of a Russian surface-to-air missile system near Yevpatoria (68km northwest of Sevastopol).[5] Ukrainian news outlet Ukrainska Pravda reported that a source affiliated with the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) stated that the SBU and the Ukrainian Navy conducted a “unique special operation” that destroyed a Russian S-400 “Triumf” system near Yevpatoria.[6] Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the S-400 system’s radar and antennas with drones and struck the launch complexes with two Neptune cruise missiles.[7] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that Russian air defenses intercepted 11 Ukrainian drones over Crimea but did not mention any Ukrainian missile strikes

Russian forces conducted another series of Shahed-131/136 drone strikes targeting Ukrainian port infrastructure on September 14. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 22 drones in the direction of Mykolaiv, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Sumy oblasts and that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 17 of the drones.[12] Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated that Russian forces primarily targeted port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast.[13] Ukrainian Minister for Communities, Territories, and Infrastructure Development Oleksandr Kubrakov stated that Russian strikes from July 18 to September 12 have damaged or partially destroyed 105 Ukrainian port facilities and that the monthly export of Ukrainian grain has decreased by almost three million tons as a result.[14] The Russian strike campaign against Ukrainian grain and port infrastructure is likely meant to support the Kremlin’s effort to leverage international desire for Russia’s return to the Black Sea Grain Initiative to exact extensive concessions

The commander of the Russian 247th Guards Air Assault (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) Vasily Popov was reportedly killed in combat in Ukraine.[18] Vasily Popov likely recently replaced Pyotr Popov as commander of the 247th VDV Regiment in August or September 2023, and Vasily Popov is the second commander of the 247th Regiment to be killed in action in Ukraine after Colonel Konstantin Zizevsky died in February 2022.[19] Elements of the 247th Regiment are reportedly operating in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.[20] ISW has previously assessed that relatively elite VDV forces are conducting limited counterattacks in critical sectors of the front, and Vasily Popov’s death supports ISW’s assessment that these counterattacks will likely attrit these units further.

The European Parliament adopted a resolution on September 13 recognizing Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko as complicit in Russian crimes committed in Ukraine and called on the International Criminal Court (ICC) to issue an arrest warrant for him. The European Parliament’s resolution stated that Belarus is complicit in the war in Ukraine and is involved in the deportation of Ukrainian children to Belarus, Russia, and occupied areas of Ukraine

Russian State Duma and Federation Council members proposed blocking WhatsApp likely as part of the Kremlin’s broader initiative to establish central control over the Russian information space. Facebook’s parent company Meta announced on September 13 that WhatsApp launched a channel feature to over 150 countries, likely including Russia, that will function similarly to Telegram channels.[26] Russia designated Meta as an extremist organization in March 2022 and banned its Facebook and Instagram services in Russia.[27] Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security Head Viktor Bondarev, State Duma Committee on Information Policy Head Alexander Khinshtein, and State Duma Deputy Anton Gorelkin said that Russia should consider blocking WhatsApp in Russia if WhatsApp launches Russian language channels.[28] Russian state media censor Roskomnadzor reported that Russia could block WhatsApp if it disseminates prohibited information.[29] Russian authorities are likely attempting to funnel the Russian information space onto a limited number of closely monitored or controlled social media platforms.

Some Russian sources suggested that ongoing tensions between the Russian MoD and the Wagner Group are diminishing Wagner’s ability to operate across the African theater. A Russian insider source claimed on September 12 that “difficult logistics” are forcing Wagner forces in Africa to “make do with local reserves” to continue operations after the rebel coalition Coordination of the Movement of Azawad (CMA) claimed to have captured Bourem, Gao Region, Mali.[30] Russian sources, including a prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger, claimed that the Russian MoD and Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) deliberately disrupted Wagner's logistics by preventing Wagner from using Russian airbases in Syria to reinforce the Wagner contingent in the Central African Republic (CAR) — reports consistent with ISW’s recent observations.[31] The milblogger claimed that the CMA took advantage of destabilization fueled in part by tensions resulting from the MoD’s ongoing effort to subsume Wagner.[32] The milblogger warned that other armed groups may also take advantage of the destabilization and that the MoD will have to invest resources in the region to avoid reputational fallout.[33] Wagner forces in Africa notably conduct counterterrorism operations, but these operations are often ineffective, and the current Wagner group contingent in MENA is likely insufficient to conduct counterterrorism operations at a scale that could meaningfully contain new or escalating conflicts.[34]

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) declared two US diplomats persona non grata and expelled them from Russia on September 14.[35] The Russian MFA accused the US Embassy’s first and second secretaries of illegally maintaining contact with an arrested former US Consulate employee and ordered the diplomats to leave Russia within the next seven days.

Western defense sources reportedly stated that a Russian fighter jet intentionally fired at a British surveillance plane in September 2022 due to ambiguous commands rather than because of a missile malfunction as the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed at the time. The BBC reported that three senior Western defense sources stated that a Russian Su-27 fighter jet pilot intentionally fired a missile at a British Royal Air Force (RAF) plane but missed on September 29, 2022.[36] The Western defense sources reportedly stated that the Russian pilot believed he had permission to fire after receiving an ambiguous command from a Russian ground station and fired a second missile, which reportedly either malfunctioned or was aborted.[37] A second Russian pilot flying another Su-27 reportedly interpreted the order differently and did not fire at the British aircraft.[38] The Russian MoD claimed in October 2022 that the Su-27 jet fired the missile due to a “technical malfunction.”

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There has not been any major change on the Robotyne frontline the last 10 days. It would seem RU have succeeded in slowing down UA progress by moving and engaging the 76th VDv division to Zaporizhzhia. It's not unlikely we are will see a period with more focus on attrition.

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In Kherson region last year we saw operations in to mid November without any major issues. I dont think weather will have a huge impact on the offensive. Especially since we aren't really seeing any maneuvering warfare.

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Preliminary BDA assessment thread on successful Yevpatoria attack: tonight, videos surfaced, showing explosions in close vicinity to Yevpatoria. Satellite imagery confirms S-400 battery engagement, destroying at least one S-400 TEL near Zaozerne.

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link in the last tweet. It looks like Ukraine has finally hit the S-400 positions, which were revealed earlier last year by tourists taking photos near the beach close to the city of Yevpatoria. https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1561448420673404929

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This is sad on all fronts, for everyone who has lost life, those driving an agenda, and those believing falsities.

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