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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/29/23 at 10:22 am to StormyMcMan
Posted on 6/29/23 at 10:22 am to StormyMcMan
Well those are interesting updates that provide a little more clarity around Prigozhin.
Those seem like difficult situations to manage given the dynamics around loyalty and anger issues probably in both directions thousands of miles from home.
Those seem like difficult situations to manage given the dynamics around loyalty and anger issues probably in both directions thousands of miles from home.
Posted on 6/29/23 at 11:55 am to ned nederlander
quote:
~0 helicopters
quote:
~0 jets
Neither of these are true.
Posted on 6/29/23 at 11:58 am to DabosDynasty
quote:
78% of Ukrainians have relatives or friends who were killed or wounded in the war, according to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
According to experts, this figure is similar in all regions of Ukraine - from 70% in the east to 80% in the west.
LINK
quote:
BREAKING: The United States is "close" to approving ATACMS to Ukraine, US and European officials say - WSJ
LINK
Posted on 6/29/23 at 11:59 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
WASHINGTON—The U.S. is close to approving a long-range missile system for Ukraine that could shift the tide of Kyiv’s fight against Russian invaders in its favor, U.S. and European officials said.
The Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, has a range of about 190 miles, enough for Ukrainian forces to strike Russian targets far behind the front lines. President Biden hasn’t signed off on the transfer, in part out of concern among U.S. officials that Ukraine could use it to strike Russian territory and escalate the conflict into a wider war with the West.
Officials said that the matter is pending approval at the highest levels. But officials in the U.S. and Europe have seen signs that previously reluctant quarters of the U.S. government, namely the White House, have come to see an urgent need to bolster Ukraine’s fight in the coming weeks.
But amid the domestic turmoil in Russia, where over the weekend the founder of the Wagner mercenary force staged an abortive mutiny, U.S. and European officials acknowledged that now might be the time to step on the gas.
A senior Ukrainian defense official told The Wall Street Journal that Kyiv had received positive signs in recent weeks that the U.S. had come around on the ATACMS system. Ukrainian officials have argued that the long-range missiles are needed, in part, to strike into Crimea, the peninsula occupied by Russia that Russian forces are using as a base to launch Iranian-made drones, according to public statements by the U.S. and its European allies.
The White House national security council and the Pentagon didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Posted on 6/29/23 at 12:06 pm to Lakeboy7
We have given more than every other country combined but I guess that’s to be expected. I’m not sure sending 100 more Abrams would really make a difference until Ukraine can neutralize Russia’s threat from the air. That means either more AA systems or fighters. AA systems are at a premium as there just isn’t that many Patriot systems sitting around extra to send. If fighters are going to be in the plan then they need to shite or get off the pot with it because that takes time to train and equip the Ukrainian Air Force. They will need at least 60 f-16s to make the difference they need along with all the support that those aircraft require as well as supplying them with thousands of missiles to shoot down the air threats. I don’t know which way NATO plans on going and I’m not sure they even know themselves but until the air threat is dealt with to me it’s pointless to keep sending armored vehicles to be used in combined arms operations without control of the sky. Our military would never attack if we didn’t first control the air but for some reason they expect the Ukrainians to figure it out the best they can. I fear this is going to be a slow going slugfest that goes on and on and on until that air threat is neutralized.
Posted on 6/29/23 at 12:08 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
What happened to expelling the US military?
They tried that didnt work out so well.
Posted on 6/29/23 at 12:12 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
What about the tube artillery, millions of rounds of tube artillery ammunition; 113s, Brads, Strykers; All manner of radars to include Patriot systems; Small arms, probably over a billion rounds in small arms ammunition; Javelins, AT4s; Anti air missiles; Ground to ground missiles and rockets; Anti ship missiles; Etc etc etc
No question we’ve given a tremendous amount. This isn’t a we should be doing more sentiment. Just as I read the list of what Poland is getting just in this one order I can’t help but feel Ukraine is fighting this war with duct tape and a collection of mismatched surplus (and largely obsolete) nato equipment
Posted on 6/29/23 at 12:15 pm to El Mattadorr
quote:
Neither of these are true.
Has Ukraine gotten attack helicopters or jets from the US? I didn’t think so.
They’ve gotten a collection of barely adequate old planes from the Euros, but I’m not aware of anyone giving Ukraine attack helicopters.
Posted on 6/29/23 at 12:20 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The U.S. is close to approving a long-range missile system for Ukraine that could shift the tide of Kyiv’s fight against Russian invaders in its favor, U.S. and European officials said
It really is Groundhog Day with a lot of these systems. HIMARS are a non starter. ABRAMS are a non starter. ATACMS are a non starter. F-16s are a non-starter.
Posted on 6/29/23 at 12:31 pm to ned nederlander
To be fair last year I could understand not giving a lot if materiel given the fact that Russia advanced quickly and was on the doorstep of Kyiv.
Now? Yeah there's really no point holding back given Ukraine's success and Russia's internal problems. All their threats of escalation are empty as the world has seen the state of Russias military.
Meanwhile in Ukraine (Pryiutne):
Russian soldiers said that after fierce fighting near Pryiutne, Berdiansk front, where a company of 150 people remained with 20. They complain about the lack of supply of ammunition, water, food and evacuation of the wounded and dead.
LINK
Oof. The mobiks are getting destroyed again.
Now? Yeah there's really no point holding back given Ukraine's success and Russia's internal problems. All their threats of escalation are empty as the world has seen the state of Russias military.
Meanwhile in Ukraine (Pryiutne):
Russian soldiers said that after fierce fighting near Pryiutne, Berdiansk front, where a company of 150 people remained with 20. They complain about the lack of supply of ammunition, water, food and evacuation of the wounded and dead.
LINK
Oof. The mobiks are getting destroyed again.
This post was edited on 6/29/23 at 12:34 pm
Posted on 6/29/23 at 12:52 pm to GOP_Tiger
Do other countries not have feasible long range missiles to give at this time? Of course I support the US doing it, but wondering if anyone else could help immediately.
Posted on 6/29/23 at 1:07 pm to notiger1997
quote:
There's a lot of speculation around the situation with Prigozhin and Wagner, so let's clarify what we know so far:
1?? Prigozhin has been exiled to Belarus. The specifics of his future are currently under Putin’s consideration. Lukashenko has hinted at the temporary nature of Prigozhin's stay, indicating a lack of interest to permanently host such individuals, but it’s likely that there will be no choice and he will have to. Without diving into speculation about the exact arrangements, the apparent aim is to neutralise Prigozhin, ‘lock him up’ outside of Russia, and the next steps will unfold with time.
2?? Wagner is being separated from Prigozhin, signaling an end to Wagner as it was previously known. There will be a dissection of the organisation: some parts will be removed, some taken, and others dismantled. This concerns Africa and Syria too. The Foreign Ministry is already actively participating in this. Wagner's involvement varied widely, so the Kremlin (read MFA, SVR and GRU) will vet Wagner’s operatives, their resources, and audit their presence, seeking whether a presence is necessary at all. We won't see a Wagner 2.0, at least the way it was.
3?? I don’t expect a purge in the style of Stalin; that's not Putin's approach. His perspective splits individuals into heroes, traitors (who face severe consequences), or lost souls who may be pardoned if they repent in time. Arrests are possible within this framework, but figures like Surovikin are less likely to be targeted. The challenge here is that Putin isn't the same as before, and there are influential figures with their own agendas, like Sergei Shoigu, who may be interested in eliminating internal opposition. So final fate of Surovikin is unclear.
4?? Prigozhin’s mutiny has underscored a potentially newer quality of the regime, which is not entirely new but is now more apparent. If Putin used to control the players, the power dynamics are now shifting. Given Putin's detachment and distorted view of reality, the players are starting to manipulate Putin. While I was always very reluctant to perceive Putin as being manipulated, the effects of his 23-year reign, his ageing, and the pressures of war could be leading to this shift. Prigozhin's struggle to reach the president and Shoigu's attempt to tackle the Wagner issue are the outcomes of Putin's inaction. This mutiny was so shocking that the regime appeared to many as near to collapse, which significantly undermines Putin’s ability to secure control in the eyes of the political class.
5?? Lastly, we're now witnessing the initial signs of an anti-elite trend in society. This shouldn't be confused with anti-Putin or anti-war sentiments. People are becoming increasingly frustrated with an inefficient and bloated elite, either scoffing at them or expressing silent indignation. Although this trend may not have immediate political implications, it may pose potentially a significant challenge later.
LINK
Posted on 6/29/23 at 1:13 pm to notiger1997
LINK
Here's a Perun vid that discusses long range vid. Its 1 hour long but a great watch.
The short answer is no. They U.S. relies on the Air Force for long range missiles bombing. The Army only has access really to HIMARS, M270, and ATACMS which is only good for about 300 miles (and there isn't a lot of them). The Chinese and Russians have much longer ranges because they didn't abide by the INF Treaty that eliminated missiles from 500 to 5000 kilometers.
Now that the treaty no longer exists the Army is trying to fast track a new missile system. They are getting some pushback from the Air Force though.
Going to be a while before something is available for countries to buy/develop something better. We've also has some costly failures as well.
For now HIMARS M270and the German PZH2000 are doing the work.
Here's a Perun vid that discusses long range vid. Its 1 hour long but a great watch.
The short answer is no. They U.S. relies on the Air Force for long range missiles bombing. The Army only has access really to HIMARS, M270, and ATACMS which is only good for about 300 miles (and there isn't a lot of them). The Chinese and Russians have much longer ranges because they didn't abide by the INF Treaty that eliminated missiles from 500 to 5000 kilometers.
Now that the treaty no longer exists the Army is trying to fast track a new missile system. They are getting some pushback from the Air Force though.
Going to be a while before something is available for countries to buy/develop something better. We've also has some costly failures as well.
For now HIMARS M270and the German PZH2000 are doing the work.
This post was edited on 6/29/23 at 1:39 pm
Posted on 6/29/23 at 1:48 pm to jfan244888
Posted on 6/29/23 at 2:39 pm to jfan244888
A very interesting thread goes back to 2018 Syria to explain the basis of the Prigozhin vs Gerasimov bitterness -- it's about broken promises, corruption, and oil money.
Posted on 6/29/23 at 3:53 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 6/29/23 at 4:13 pm to notiger1997
quote:
Do other countries not have feasible long range missiles to give at this time?
They're already getting Storm Shadow. It has slightly less range than ATACMS, but is more "stealthy" than ATACMS in theory. I'm sure that Ukraine would like both so they can make the Russians pick their poison:focus on trying to track and destroy the low flying SS closer to the front lines, or move some missile defense assets back to get more time to track and shoot down the ballistic ATACMS.
Posted on 6/29/23 at 4:48 pm to IAmNERD
Not the kind of VIP you want to be in Russia at the moment.
Russian Gen. Sergey Surovikin was secret VIP member of Wagner, documents show.
Russian Gen. Sergey Surovikin was secret VIP member of Wagner, documents show.
Posted on 6/29/23 at 4:52 pm to TigerDoc
Interactive map of Crimea. Separate layers for fortifications, fuel depots, airfields, etc.
RFE/RL Map
RFE/RL Map
Posted on 6/29/23 at 4:53 pm to jfan244888
quote:
We've also has some costly failures as well.
What a shock
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