re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

quote:

---

Interactive map of Crimea. Separate layers for fortifications, fuel depots, airfields, etc.

---

Nice, thanks for the share - adding it to my resource toolkit

Things from today.

Interesting claims regarding Bahkmut, especially regarding the air space above. If true it will be a good comparison to the Southern from on how Ukraine performs without an aerial disadvantage.

quote:

---

"Bakhmut is fully controlled by the Armed Forces from the air, the occupiers are retreating from the northern streets," commander Denys Yaroslavskyi said.

"Defenders of Ukraine actually are working to take control of Klishchiivka and Berkhivka and its strategic heights near the city. After their capture, Bakhmut can be taken into an operational encirclement," he added.

---

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1674329533497896960 - Video



Reported Russian video showing from Melitopol with very..... interesting firearms discipline.

Also you get to see what looks to be a slightly flattened looking helicopter during the video.

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1674513943510003720 - Video



Don't the below source, relatively new account but from well before Feb '22, appears to focus on online hacking - found via @Intelcrab. Thread claims that Wagner has started targeting Russian comms via satellite attacks.

Thread has a wealth of technical data for any interested geeks.

quote:

---

PMC Wagner has announced that they have taken down the satellite provider Dozor-Teleport and damaged user terminals. Their rivalry with the RU MoD is manifesting in an unusual way. This is the second major satellite provider breach after Viasat https://t.me/RichardWgn

---

https://twitter.com/vx_herm1t/status/1674365229570899968



Fascintating article by Digital Forensic Research Lab that goes over 6 years worth of Wagner military and propaganda efforts across the world by region. It builds a coherent picture of how and why they operate as they do. The article is very long so I won't quote it but do suggest it as a good read.

https://dfrlab.org/2023/06/28/yevgeny-prigozhin-a-history-of-violence-and-propaganda-around-the-world/



Ukraine showing off an evolution in UAV/FPV warfare, this thing looks badarse, especially if the EW resistant claims are true.

quote:

---

1/2 Dmitry Rogozin's Tsar's Wolves organization is testing a large "Shturm" (Storm) quadcopter in eastern Ukraine that can drop six munitions/grenades, is allegedly EW-proof, and allegedly has an onboard AI for identifying enemy manpower. So... https://t.me/uav_tech/17186

2/2...this AI claim cannot be independently verified and likely includes commercial solutions for image recognition. The organization does say this drone was developed by engineers after consulting the soldiers and listening to their demands for a combat quadcopter.

---

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1674444377605668867 - Video

Edit: Clarity

quote:

---

BREAKING: Former VP Mike Pence makes surprise visit to Ukraine and meets with President Zelenskyy.

---

Was this before or after Zelensky's meeting with Greta Thornberg today?

BREAKING: Greta Thunberg is in Ukraine to Meet with President Zelensky to address how the war is affecting the environment.

I thought that stuff was a sweetener

Seymour Hersh is weighing in today.

quote:

---

So, below is a look at what is really going that was provided to me by a knowledgeable source in the American intelligence community:

“I thought I might clear some of the smoke. First and most importantly, Putin is now in a much stronger position. We realized as early as January of 2023 that a showdown between the generals, backed by Putin, and Prigo, backed by anti-Russian extremists, was inevitable. The age-old conflict between the ‘special’ war fighters and a large, slow, clumsy, unimaginative regular army. The army always wins because they own the peripheral assets that make victory, either offensive or defensive, possible. Most importantly, they control logistics. special forces see themselves as the premier offensive asset. When the overall strategy is offensive, big army tolerates their hubris and public chest thumping because SF are willing to take high risk and pay a high price. Successful offense requires a large expenditure of men and equipment. Successful defense, on the other hand, requires husbanding these assets.

“Wagner members were the spearhead of the original Russian Ukraine offensive. They were the ‘little green men’. When the offensive grew into an all-out attack by the regular army, Wagner continued to assist but reluctantly had to take a back seat in the period of instability and readjustment that followed. Prigo, no shy violet, took the initiative to grow his forces and stabilize his sector.

“The regular army welcomed the help. Prigo and Wagner, as is the wont of special forces, took the limelight and took the credit for stopping the hated Ukrainians. The press gobbled it up. Meanwhile, the big army and Putin slowly changed their strategy from offensive conquest of greater Ukraine to defense of what they already had. Prigo refused to accept the change and continued on the offensive against Bakhmut. Therein lies the rub. Rather than create a public crisis and court-martial the a-hole [Prigozhin], Moscow simply withheld the resources and let Prigo use up his manpower and firepower reserves, dooming him to a stand-down. He is, after all, no matter how cunning financially, an ex-hot dog cart owner with no political or military accomplishments.

“What we never heard is three months ago Wagner was cycled out of the Bakhmut front and sent to an abandoned barracks north of Rostov-on-Don [in southern Russia] for demobilization. The heavy equipment was mostly redistributed, and the force was reduced to about 8,000, 2,000 of which left for Rostov escorted by local police.

“Putin fully backed the army who let Prigo make a fool of himself and now disappear into ignominy. All without raising a sweat militarily or causing Putin to face a political standoff with the fundamentalists, who were ardent Prigo admirers. Pretty shrewd.”

There is an enormous gap between the way the professionals in the American intelligence community assess the situation and what the White House and the supine Washington press project to the public by uncritically reproducing the statements of Blinken and his hawkish cohorts.

The current battlefield statistics that were shared with me suggest that the Biden administration’s overall foreign policy may be at risk in Ukraine. They also raise questions about the involvement of the NATO alliance, which has been providing the Ukrainian forces with training and weapons for the current lagging counter-offensive. I learned that in the first two weeks of the operation, the Ukraine military seized only 44 square miles of territory previously held by the Russian army, much of it open land. In contrast, Russia is now in control of 40,000 square miles of Ukrainian territory. I have been told that in the past ten days Ukrainian forces have not fought their way through the Russian defenses in any significant way. They have recovered only two more square miles of Russian-seized territory. At that pace, one informed official said, waggishly, it would take Zelensky’s military 117 years to rid the country. of Russian occupation.

The Washington press in recent days seems to be slowly coming to grips with the enormity of the disaster, but there is no public evidence that President Biden and his senior aides in the White House and State Department aides understand the situation.

---

LINK

quote:

---

Seymour Hersh is weighing in today.

---

He has always been a joke being prone to make shiite up like the Nordstream pipeline article.

ISW update

quote:

---

Key Takeaways

The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian forces seized the “strategic initiative” in the Bakhmut direction and are currently conducting a broad offensive in the area.

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in at least two other sectors of the front and reportedly made gains on June 29.

The Kremlin may intend to assume formal control over the Wagner Group following its armed rebellion and turn it into a state-owned enterprise, although it is not clear if the Kremlin has committed itself to such a course of action.

Recent satellite imagery may have detected active construction of a speculated new Wagner Group base in Asipovichy, Belarus.

Kremlin-affiliated businessmen may be acquiring Prigozhin’s domestic media empire, likely as part of ongoing effort to destroy his reputation in Russia.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov refused to address Army General Sergei Surovikin’s whereabouts on June 29, prompting more speculations in the Russian information space.

Western observers continue to speculate about the whereabouts of Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov following Wagner’s rebellion, although his lack of public appearance is not necessarily indicative of his current official standing within the Russian military leadership

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks south of Kreminna.

Ukrainian forces intensified counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area and reportedly made advances.

Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front.

Russian forces in early May constructed a dam on the outskirts of Tokmak in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

A Russian BARS (Russian Combat Reserve) affiliated source claimed that Russian forces are moving military equipment to unspecified areas on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.

The Crimea-based Atesh partisan group stated that Russian forces are increasing their presence in Armyansk to defend key infrastructure in northern Crimea.

Russian Cossack armed formations are reportedly signing contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) as part of a larger formalization effort to integrate irregular forces into MoD structures.

---

These were posted by Noel earlier on twitter:





Nothing in the Bahkmut area though

quote:

---

So, below is a look at what is really going that was provided to me by a knowledgeable source in the American intelligence community:

“I thought I might clear some of the smoke. First and most importantly, Putin is now in a much stronger position. We realized as early as January of 2023 that a showdown between the generals, backed by Putin, and Prigo, backed by anti-Russian extremists, was inevitable. The age-old conflict between the ‘special’ war fighters and a large, slow, clumsy, unimaginative regular army. The army always wins because they own the peripheral assets that make victory, either offensive or defensive, possible. Most importantly, they control logistics. special forces see themselves as the premier offensive asset. When the overall strategy is offensive, big army tolerates their hubris and public chest thumping because SF are willing to take high risk and pay a high price. Successful offense requires a large expenditure of men and equipment. Successful defense, on the other hand, requires husbanding these assets.

“Wagner members were the spearhead of the original Russian Ukraine offensive. They were the ‘little green men’. When the offensive grew into an all-out attack by the regular army, Wagner continued to assist but reluctantly had to take a back seat in the period of instability and readjustment that followed. Prigo, no shy violet, took the initiative to grow his forces and stabilize his sector.

“The regular army welcomed the help. Prigo and Wagner, as is the wont of special forces, took the limelight and took the credit for stopping the hated Ukrainians. The press gobbled it up. Meanwhile, the big army and Putin slowly changed their strategy from offensive conquest of greater Ukraine to defense of what they already had. Prigo refused to accept the change and continued on the offensive against Bakhmut. Therein lies the rub. Rather than create a public crisis and court-martial the a-hole [Prigozhin], Moscow simply withheld the resources and let Prigo use up his manpower and firepower reserves, dooming him to a stand-down. He is, after all, no matter how cunning financially, an ex-hot dog cart owner with no political or military accomplishments.

“What we never heard is three months ago Wagner was cycled out of the Bakhmut front and sent to an abandoned barracks north of Rostov-on-Don [in southern Russia] for demobilization. The heavy equipment was mostly redistributed, and the force was reduced to about 8,000, 2,000 of which left for Rostov escorted by local police.

“Putin fully backed the army who let Prigo make a fool of himself and now disappear into ignominy. All without raising a sweat militarily or causing Putin to face a political standoff with the fundamentalists, who were ardent Prigo admirers. Pretty shrewd.”

There is an enormous gap between the way the professionals in the American intelligence community assess the situation and what the White House and the supine Washington press project to the public by uncritically reproducing the statements of Blinken and his hawkish cohorts.

The current battlefield statistics that were shared with me suggest that the Biden administration’s overall foreign policy may be at risk in Ukraine. They also raise questions about the involvement of the NATO alliance, which has been providing the Ukrainian forces with training and weapons for the current lagging counter-offensive. I learned that in the first two weeks of the operation, the Ukraine military seized only 44 square miles of territory previously held by the Russian army, much of it open land. In contrast, Russia is now in control of 40,000 square miles of Ukrainian territory. I have been told that in the past ten days Ukrainian forces have not fought their way through the Russian defenses in any significant way. They have recovered only two more square miles of Russian-seized territory. At that pace, one informed official said, waggishly, it would take Zelensky’s military 117 years to rid the country. of Russian occupation.

The Washington press in recent days seems to be slowly coming to grips with the enormity of the disaster, but there is no public evidence that President Biden and his senior aides in the White House and State Department aides understand the situation.

---

This is about as weighty as a feather on the moon.

No actual data, just hearsay about what he was told by "sources". There is no investigative journalism here about the actual conflict which, like the MSM he vilifies, makes his article as irrelevant and behind the times as theirs generally are.

While in the past he may have done good work, all Hersh seems to write regarding the Ukraine conflict is linked to his dissatisfaction with the American political system, he merely uses the war as window dressing to rail against it, which in my view is the only reason his current pieces get any amplification.

quote:

---

Wish we could get some maps to track progress.

---

In case you aren't familiar with them

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper

Does updates every day or so and generally tends to only confirm changes on the map once multiple sources confirm it, usually via footage.



https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/

Similar update schedule, though he tends to focus more on reported actions than the frontlines and has more of a Pro-Ukraine slant



https://t.me/s/rybar

For the Pro-Russian side there is Rybar who also updates each day usually.