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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/11/23 at 9:16 am to AU86
Posted on 3/11/23 at 9:16 am to AU86
Last night, I thought the news from Bakhmut was negative, but it looks better this morning.
Start with the kills report, and yesterday was a good day to die if you were a Russian soldier. Also, look at the claimed tank, IFV, and artillery kills:
So this would indicate that the Ukrainian strategy of ensuring that the "Russian offensive" continues is a good one. I know that a lot of those losses were in the Kreminna area, where Russia tried some attacks that completely failed.
Also, in the list of areas that the UA staff reported repelling Russian attacks, they listed the town of Paraskoviyivka, and that's a bit of a shock, because that's a suburban area of Bakhmut which has been under Russian control for a long time. That would imply that Ukraine significantly pushed Russia back in the north of Bakhmut.
If it is indeed true that Ukraine has pushed Russia back to the outskirts of Paraskoviyivka today, then a new map might look something like this (from @HeliosRunner):
So, today might have been a very good day for Ukraine. Or, the UA general staff might have been wrong or lying -- we'll see.
Start with the kills report, and yesterday was a good day to die if you were a Russian soldier. Also, look at the claimed tank, IFV, and artillery kills:
So this would indicate that the Ukrainian strategy of ensuring that the "Russian offensive" continues is a good one. I know that a lot of those losses were in the Kreminna area, where Russia tried some attacks that completely failed.
Also, in the list of areas that the UA staff reported repelling Russian attacks, they listed the town of Paraskoviyivka, and that's a bit of a shock, because that's a suburban area of Bakhmut which has been under Russian control for a long time. That would imply that Ukraine significantly pushed Russia back in the north of Bakhmut.
If it is indeed true that Ukraine has pushed Russia back to the outskirts of Paraskoviyivka today, then a new map might look something like this (from @HeliosRunner):
So, today might have been a very good day for Ukraine. Or, the UA general staff might have been wrong or lying -- we'll see.
This post was edited on 3/11/23 at 9:17 am
1
Posted on 3/11/23 at 9:22 am to dukke v
quote:
My biggest question is if the Russians are playing possum or they really this bad at trying to takeover a country. I mean tons of credit for the troops and defense by Ukraine, but most would think this would have been over by now if Russia is so mighty.
They are not playing possum, they really are this bad. Russia convinced itself and the rest of the world that they were a world power. But in reality the decades of corruption rotted their military.
There is so much visual evidence flowing from the battlefield that it is easy to determine what units have been in the fight. All combat vehicles have tactical markings identifying what unit they belong to. From that visual evidence we know that Russia has used its best units such as the 1st Guards Tank Army which is the premier armored unit of their army. The 1st Guards got decimated in the opening phase of the war and then was hit hard again in the subsequent offensives in the east where it was sent after it was withdrawn from the north. Recent reports say it is being reconstituted using T62 tanks which are 60 years old. Just one example.
There is no evidence they are playing possum
This post was edited on 3/11/23 at 9:24 am
Posted on 3/11/23 at 9:34 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
People have been claiming Russia would commit “false flag” attacks since day one and none of them have actually happened.
They suck too much to make anything like that work.
Remember last April, when they supposedly stopped a Ukrainian Nazi plot to assassinate Solovyov? And the dumbass agent who put together the "evidence" saw that he was supposed to put some SIM cards that the supposed assassin had, and he instead put some of The Sims video game?
It was all so ridiculous. Just imagine these clowns trying to pull off the Nord Stream and actually successfully blame Ukraine for it.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 9:47 am to GOP_Tiger
One of the reasons we are hesitant to send our latest tech to Ukraine:
CNN
CNN
quote:
Russia has been sending some US-provided weapons captured in Ukraine to Iran, sources say
Washington (CNN) — Russia has been capturing some of the US and NATO-provided weapons and equipment left on the battlefield in Ukraine and sending them to Iran, where the US believes Tehran will try to reverse-engineer the systems, four sources familiar with the matter told CNN.
quote:
US officials don’t believe that the issue is widespread or systematic, and the Ukrainian military has made it a habit since the beginning of the war to report to the Pentagon any losses of US-provided equipment to Russian forces, officials said. Still, US officials acknowledge that the issue is difficult to track.
It’s not clear if Iran has successfully reverse-engineered any US weapons taken in Ukraine, but Tehran has proven highly adept at developing weapons systems based on US equipment seized in the past.
A key weapon in Iran’s inventory, the Toophan anti-tank guided missile, was reverse engineered from the American BGM-71 TOW missile in the 1970s. The Iranians also intercepted a US-made drone in 2011, a Lockheed Martin RQ-170 “Sentinel”, and reverse-engineered it to create a new drone that crossed into Israeli airspace in 2018 before being shot down.
“Iran has demonstrated the capability to reverse-engineer US weapons in the past,” said Jonathan Lord, a senior fellow and director of the Middle East security program at the Center for a New American Security. “They reverse-engineered the TOW anti-tank guided missile, creating a near-perfect replica they called the Toophan, and have since proliferated it to the Houthis and Hezbollah. Iran could do the same with a Stinger, which could threaten both civil and military aviation throughout the region. A reverse-engineered Javelin could be used by Hamas or Hezbollah to threaten an Israeli Merkava tank. In the hands of Iran’s proxies, these weapons pose a real threat to Israel’s conventional military forces.”
quote:
“Over the past year, Russia’s military cooperation with Iran has deepened. and that poses serious challenges for this region and for the safety of your citizens,” Austin said at a press conference alongside Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in Tel Aviv on Thursday.
“Iran is gaining important battlefield expertise and experience in Ukraine that will eventually transfer to its dangerous proxies in the Middle East,” Austin said. “In return for Iranian support in Ukraine, Russia has been offering Iran unprecedented defense cooperation, including on missiles and air defense.”
quote:
The Pentagon late last year expanded its efforts to track US weapons provided to Ukraine, including through on-site inspections conducted by US military personnel stationed at the US embassy in Kyiv.
Undersecretary of defense for policy Colin Kahl told lawmakers earlier this year that the US has seen instances of the Russians capturing some US-provided systems on the battlefield, but not in large numbers.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 9:57 am to GOP_Tiger
LINK
I think this is Gen. Syrsky's third visit to Bakhmut in the last three weeks? He is certainly not unaware of the tactical situation on the ground.
quote:
Col. General Oleksandr Syrsky, the commander of Ukrainian Ground Forces, visited #Bakhmut again and reassured the defense of city is necessary for the preparation of the spring counteroffensive.
I think this is Gen. Syrsky's third visit to Bakhmut in the last three weeks? He is certainly not unaware of the tactical situation on the ground.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 10:00 am to GOP_Tiger
American weapons.
Don’t you think we left enough weapons in Afghanistan to keep Iranian scientist busy for years?
Don’t you think we left enough weapons in Afghanistan to keep Iranian scientist busy for years?
Posted on 3/11/23 at 10:23 am to GOP_Tiger
I'm really confused with Bakmut right now, I don't know if the U's are pushing them back, in retreat, or stalemated. I will assume stalemate until I hear a definite.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 10:31 am to doubleb
quote:
American weapons.
Don’t you think we left enough weapons in Afghanistan to keep Iranian scientist busy for years?
I would have to think that Russia got its hands on at least one Stinger in the 1980's in Afghanistan.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 10:34 am to dukke v
quote:
I’m way more worried about China than Russia.
How many Chinese have actually combat experience PLUS their weapons are based on Russian designs and have been that way for decades due the used Russian weapons for a longtime.
China first aircraft carrier was one sold by Ukraine to them built is a Soviet shipyard in Ukraine.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 11:53 am to dukke v
quote:
I’m way more worried about China than Russia.
This is a bit off-topic, but I'm very excited about Monday's upcoming AUKUS announcement.
For Australia to commit to spend $100 billion on nuclear-powered submarines, for the huge additional investment in American and British shipbuilding and all the jobs that will bring, and especially what this will do for allied British/American/Aussie strength in the Pacific -- it's fantastic.
The only "negative" thing is that is doesn't do much to deter China in the short term, as most of the benefits of AUKUS won't be seen for a while.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 12:35 pm to GOP_Tiger
Yesterday, @Teoyaomiquu posted
Today, he followed up with the actual video, filmed north of Kreminna:
LINK
I will say that this video truly does show the value of drones with thermal cameras. The Russian soldiers appear to think that they are hiding under some trees, but that does not work with cameras that see your body heat.
quote:
Good news from the 92nd brigade. Many orcs were laid to rest today. You will probably see videos tomorrow. I have some, but I can't share them yet :)
Today, he followed up with the actual video, filmed north of Kreminna:
LINK
quote:
Ok, I can't post everything yet. Not everything is super clear yet, also. Watch till the end. I hope you understand the importance of thermal vision drones.
I will say that this video truly does show the value of drones with thermal cameras. The Russian soldiers appear to think that they are hiding under some trees, but that does not work with cameras that see your body heat.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 12:54 pm to CitizenK
I read many moons ago that the Chinese had to decide whether to pursue aircraft carriers or submarines. They chose submarines. They felt that as time wore on, that aircraft carriers would be rendered ineffective bc of submarines. They have a fairly robust fleet of submarines, if memory serves me well
This post was edited on 3/11/23 at 12:55 pm
Posted on 3/11/23 at 1:03 pm to jeffsdad
quote:
I'm really confused with Bakmut right now, I don't know if the U's are pushing them back, in retreat, or stalemated. I will assume stalemate until I hear a definite.
I'm not sure either, but @Militarylandnet is out with an update, and he is definitely negative about what Ukraine is doing in Bakhmut:
quote:
Closer look on #Bakhmut
- the enemy is attacking from the north and south and made minor gains on these areas
- problematic situation continues in the north-west of the city
quote:
While UA command is focusing on holding on #Bakhmut as long as possible, the defenders are losing well-prepared and fortified positions behind the city. These positions don't have names and won't get world's attention, but are (were) important.
quote:
Once again, UA command decided to use air assault unit, this time 77th Airmobile, to fill a gap. The brigade was sent to Bakhmut.
Soldiers, which were trained in Great Britain, and are prepared for various combat situations, are used as regular infantry.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 1:58 pm to ticklechain
quote:
They have a fairly robust fleet of submarines, if memory serves me well
Their entire fleet is almost exclusively a coastal fleet and not a blue water navy including diesel subs
Posted on 3/11/23 at 2:01 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
I saw some reporting in the last couple of days where the US was now testing inexpensive UAVs dropping munitions. We are learning from what is happening in this war.
Sorry that I'm several pages behind but this made me laugh.
quote:
We are learning from what Pentagon personnel are watching on Reddit and Twitter
I'm just imagining gian rooms filled with desktops and laptops and Pentagon employees scrolling Reddit and sending it up the chain to some 3 star general who has it in the back of his mind how much money he could get allocated to grenade-dropping DJI Drones.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 2:28 pm to GOP_Tiger
I question just how much help the Leopard 1 will be unless they are fitted with the 120 mm main gun and have reactive armor bricks put on them. The 105 mm main gun would be more than enough to destroy everything but MBTs but I’m not sure it would do much to Russian T-72s. They would a match for the T-62s Russia is pulling out of long term storage though. The 1A5 variant had modifications in the turret that it could house the 120 mm gun if desired so it’s possible some could have them.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 2:34 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
I question just how much help the Leopard 1 will be
Any armored vehicle is devastating to the Russians.
And the 105 is fine provided you have the newer rounds which they will have eventually. There are a few sweet spots on a T72 the 105 is very effective. Just get them on the battlefield as quickly as possible.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 2:35 pm to Lakeboy7
Interesting
Posted on 3/11/23 at 2:49 pm to DabosDynasty
DD I cant open your links when I'm on my phone? operator error on m y end probably!!!!
Posted on 3/11/23 at 2:56 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Yes, but if it was a Russian false flag operation, then the mystery is why Russia never really tried to pin the blame on Ukraine. Why would Russia jump all over the Sy Hersh story and instead blame the US?
If Russia had actually pursued a "blame Ukraine" strategy early on, they might have been able to anger the German public enough to prevent future German aid to Ukraine.
Like, the whole point Russia doing a false flag operation to blame Ukraine would be to actually ... blame Ukraine. And they didn't.
I have yet to see any theory that truly makes sense and doesn't have significant gaps.
I'm yet to see a convincing theory myself, accidental reasons aside.
My view on them jumping on the Hersh story was because they wanted to neutralise or at least curtail U.S. involvement in the war by putting them in an unfavourable position, especially in light of Biden's strong though ambiguous statements regarding Nordstream giving them an easy avenue of attack.
By extension this would have undermined NATO as without strong U.S. commitment this would enable Russia to exploit the resistance to change that tends to be prevalent in societies that have had relative peace and prosperity for a length of time. Countries like Germany, tied heavily to Russia already, would have found "reasons" to let them proceed with their actions. This is why they didn't target Ukraine as scapegoat in my view, they didn't see Germany as a threat at that point.
Much of this ties to a couple of points I made earlier ITT. Russia made the mistake of many regimes that allow autocratic rule by only allowing and creating yes men who won't challenge what the regime wants to hear and overplayed their hand due to poor information.
They at least partially fell for the narrative of a democratic West without the resolve or will to take decisions perceived to be uncomfortable at home, which in fairness the 2014 outcome lent credence to.
Having loudly committed their society both physically and ideologically to a course of action in Ukraine, the regime in Russia has now tied itself to the outcome of the war.
The fact this story is coming out now is interesting, since the U.S. ploy did not work, and with the large number of Leopards coming in play they may have changed their goal posts to Germany in recognition that this support could make all the difference come better conditions in the months ahead.
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