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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/5/24 at 7:54 pm to VolSquatch
Posted on 6/5/24 at 7:54 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Well the main point was that they are openly saying they will target operatives from a NATO country, but if you want to virtue signal that’s fine too
Thank you. I was worried you might object.
1
Posted on 6/5/24 at 7:58 pm to CitizenK
For better or worse this thread just became the longest running current thread on TD. It eclipsed the total of the three consecutive parts of the FBD Whiskey/Bourbon/Scotch thread. I think that makes it the 3rd longest thread in TD history.
Posted on 6/5/24 at 8:28 pm to Obtuse1
Gazprom won't recover losses from full-scale war, report says
by Abbey Fenbert and The Kyiv Independent news desk June 6, 2024 1:05 AM
The Russian gas giant Gazprom will not be able to recover losses incurred from Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine for at least 10 years, according to a report commissioned by the company.
Western sanctions have increasingly targed the Russian oil and gas industry, whose profits fuel the Kremlin's war machine in Ukraine. The European Union pledged to reduce its dependence on Russian fossil fuels in the wake of the 2022 invasion, leading to a 71% drop in gas imports from 2021 to 2024.
"The main consequences of sanctions for Gazprom and the energy industry are the contraction of export volumes, which will be restored to their 2020 level no earlier than in 2035," the report said.
According to the report, which was submitted to Gazprom executives in November 2023, exports to Europe are expected to average 50-75 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually by 2035, only a third of the gas monopoly's prewar exports.
The forecast is "grim," Elina Ribakova, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told the Financial Times.
"Gazprom is at a dead end, and they're very much aware of it," Ribakova said after reading the report.
Gazprom's share of Russia's energy market will continue to fall as liquefied natural gas (LNG) surpasses pipeline gas, the report predicts.
"Because Gazprom, which doesn't have its own proven technology for producing LNG at large capacity, is the only company exporting gas via pipeline and those volumes are decreasing, Gazprom's role in the gas industry is accordingly expected to decrease," the report said.
The report's authors point out that Western sanctions have prevented the company from securing essential technology, such as turbines, as well as key parts and expert labor.
The Kyiv Independent
by Abbey Fenbert and The Kyiv Independent news desk June 6, 2024 1:05 AM
The Russian gas giant Gazprom will not be able to recover losses incurred from Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine for at least 10 years, according to a report commissioned by the company.
Western sanctions have increasingly targed the Russian oil and gas industry, whose profits fuel the Kremlin's war machine in Ukraine. The European Union pledged to reduce its dependence on Russian fossil fuels in the wake of the 2022 invasion, leading to a 71% drop in gas imports from 2021 to 2024.
"The main consequences of sanctions for Gazprom and the energy industry are the contraction of export volumes, which will be restored to their 2020 level no earlier than in 2035," the report said.
According to the report, which was submitted to Gazprom executives in November 2023, exports to Europe are expected to average 50-75 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually by 2035, only a third of the gas monopoly's prewar exports.
The forecast is "grim," Elina Ribakova, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told the Financial Times.
"Gazprom is at a dead end, and they're very much aware of it," Ribakova said after reading the report.
Gazprom's share of Russia's energy market will continue to fall as liquefied natural gas (LNG) surpasses pipeline gas, the report predicts.
"Because Gazprom, which doesn't have its own proven technology for producing LNG at large capacity, is the only company exporting gas via pipeline and those volumes are decreasing, Gazprom's role in the gas industry is accordingly expected to decrease," the report said.
The report's authors point out that Western sanctions have prevented the company from securing essential technology, such as turbines, as well as key parts and expert labor.
The Kyiv Independent
Posted on 6/5/24 at 8:39 pm to CitizenK
quote:
A number of outlets are reporting Ukrainian Border Guards retaking positions in Vovchansyk. One captured Russian said this unit left his there 21 days ago after he was wounded. My guess is that he was in the no man's land part for these 21 days.
It's gone from, "We're taking Kharkiv! in 48 hours!" to "Advancing in Reverse!"
If Russia can advance in the south because Ukraine moved forces to the North, fair enough. If not ... they've basically suffered something like 5k - 8k casualties for absolutely no gain.
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:03 pm to cypher
quote:
Gazprom won't recover losses from full-scale war, report says
Had we gone full tilt to get back to that $2 gasoline and undercut oil prices, Russia would feel the pain of its main income cut in half.
Maybe next year.
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:05 pm to cypher
quote:
Gazprom won't recover losses from full-scale war, report says
It will never regain its market share in Europe. $20+ billion down the drain by blowing up Nord Stream and Gazprom had the most to gain.
Turbines are easy, the compressors are the problem for Gazprom. China basically wants the natural gas for free at Gazprom's expense. This will only replace 50% of what has been lost. now that natural gas prices in Europe are cheaper than 2021 when Gazprom was playing Enron type games to make a profit with fake outages
The only oil or gas company which owns technology for LNG was Conoco who is the first to develop it with first ever liquefaction plant and terminal at Lake Charles and first shipment to England in a WWII Liberty ship converted to LNG carrier. The same cascading technology is used in maybe, if not more, than half of the new LNG export terminals.
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:08 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
Had we gone full tilt to get back to that $2 gasoline and undercut oil prices, Russia would feel the pain of its main income cut in half.
To get that back all refineries need to lose money and some be closed forever with indie oil companies going bankrupt due no one buying during Covid lockdowns. No, I don't want that to return. We are producing more than ever and 4-5 million barrels per day of the 12 million barrels per day being produced is being exported because we cannot use it.
This post was edited on 6/5/24 at 9:09 pm
Posted on 6/6/24 at 5:53 am to RuLSU
ISW Update June 5
quote:
Key Takeaways:
US officials continue to attempt to clarify US policy regarding Ukraine's ability to strike a limited subset of Russian military targets within Russia with US-provided weapons, but public communications about US policy remain unclear.
Western-provided artillery ammunition has reportedly started arriving to Ukrainian forces on the frontline, although not at a scale that would allow Ukrainian forces to fully challenge the Russian military's current artillery shell advantage.
Russian missile and drone strikes have caused significant long-term damage to Ukraine's energy grid, and Ukraine will reportedly face even greater energy constraints in summer 2024.
Ukrainian outlet Liga reported on June 4 that a source in Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated that there are roughly 550,000 Russian military and paramilitary personnel concentrated in occupied Ukraine and near the international border.
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on June 4 that former Russian Defense Minister and Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu will coordinate efforts to increase Russian defense industrial capacity alongside former Tula Oblast Governor and Presidential Aide Alexei Dyumin and Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev.
The apparent demotion of former First Deputy Speaker of the Federation Council and United Russia Secretary Andrei Turchak on June 4 is likely part of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ongoing effort to remove from power the political and military figures that violated his trust in 2023.
A recent meeting of the Kremlin-appointed Russian Human Rights Council (HRC) on Russia's migration policy reflects Russia's competing imperatives of attracting migrants to offset Russian labor shortages while also catering to its ultranationalist anti-migrant constituency.
Chechen Republic Rosgvardia Head and Russian State Duma Deputy Adam Delimkhanov accused State Duma Deputy Chairman and New People Party Head Vladislav Davankov of contradicting the Russian Constitution and attempting to divide Russian society, exposing continued tension between Chechen efforts to operate autonomously and the Russian state’s efforts to regulate perceived Islamic extremist threats from migrant and indigenous Muslim communities.
Russian state-owned gas company Gazprom reportedly assesses that it is unlikely to recover gas sales it lost following the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, illustrating how Western sanctions are achieving some long-term impacts against Russian revenue streams supporting Russia's war effort.
Russian investigative outlet the Insider and Moldovan outlet Little Country published an investigation on June 5 detailing how former Moldovan Chief of the General Staff Igor Gorgan operated as an agent on behalf of the Russian General Staff’s Main Directorate (GRU).
Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Kupyansk, near Chasiv Yar, west of Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk City.
The Kremlin likely authorized the Crimean branch of the Kremlin-created "Defenders of Fatherland" state fund to help grant combatants in Russian private military companies (PMCs) legal veteran statuses, possibly as part of an ongoing state effort to centralize control over irregular formations operating in Ukraine.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 6:20 am to StormyMcMan
Random tweets
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
I actually found a Russian "daily update"
They also posted this
LINK
The French embassys response
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
quote:
The SSU informed about the suspicion that putin's assistant Volodymyr Medinskyi and the rector of the Institute of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the russian federation Anatolii Torkunov are falsifying the history of Ukraine.
According to the investigation, both figures are co-authors of the russian "history textbook for 11th graders." e edition is a mandatory element of the curriculum in schools of the Russian Federation and in the temporarily occupied territory of our country.
The book completely falsifies historical events related to the formation of Ukrainian statehood.
LINK
quote:
A contract killing in Moscow was caught on CCTV cameras
The shooter managed to escape from the police and a plan "Interception" was declared.
The Kremlin media reported today about a shooting in the north of Moscow. As it turned out, one person died as a result of the shooting. Propagandists claim that the man shot was 34-year-old Konstantin Balishansky.
Balishansky is the son of Andrei Balishansky, the head of Mediasystem Group. The firm is engaged in the wholesale of communications equipment, as well as technical media.
The media suggested that it could be a contract killing. Later, the theory was supported by surveillance footage of a man, presumably Balishansky, running away from the masked gunman. The gunman was aiming fire at the man and was wearing a mask and military gear. He managed to escape.
The hitman who killed Konstantin Balishansky has been eliminated in Moscow - Russian media
The criminal was hiding among the trees and opened fire after being detected by police officers.
LINK
quote:
After the de-occupation of the territory where the Kakhovka hydroelectric station is located, the object can be rebuilt in 6-7 years.
This was announced by the general director of Ukrhydroenergo Ihor Syrota.
"As a result of the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP, 343.2 MW of installed capacity was lost. In addition, 192 MW of regulating power, necessary for the operational balancing of the UES of Ukraine, was lost," - said Syrota.
LINK
quote:
Russian Air Strike Hits Epicenter Supermarket in Kherson
The Epicenter supermarket in Kherson has been struck by a Russian air strike. The attack has left the building partially burned down, causing significant damage to the area. Emergency services are on the scene.
LINK
quote:
Kremlin and White House negotiate possible release of journalist Evan Gershkovich
Putin said there was "constant contact" between Russian and U.S. authorities on the case of American Wall Street Journal journalist Evan Gershkovich, detained in Moscow.
"I know that the United States administration is indeed taking active steps for his release. That is true. But such issues are not solved through the media. They like this kind of quiet, calm professional approach and dialog between intelligence agencies. And, of course, they should be resolved only on the basis of reciprocity. The relevant services of the United States and Russia are in contact with each other on this issue," Putin said.
Journalist Evan Gershkovich was detained on March 29 last year and charged with espionage. Russian security services claim that he was "acting on the assignment of the American side, collecting information constituting a state secret." Gershkovich himself does not admit his guilt. U.S. authorities call the journalist's arrest illegal.
LINK
I actually found a Russian "daily update"
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. They also posted this
quote:
Russian army captured a French mercenary in the neighbourhood of Liptsy, Kharkov region.
In a video that has gone viral on social media, a Russian soldier orders the merc to get out of his trench and drop the weapon. The militant responds in French, obeys and lies on the ground face down.
Awaiting a video of his interrogation where he would send regards to President Macron who is keen on sending French military instructors to Ukraine but still insists there are none.
LINK
The French embassys response
quote:
Colleagues, you have been spreading fake news for some time and we are now used to this rather undiplomatic practice. However, this one is particularly ridiculous. We suggest your actors work on their accent with some French classes at Alliance française: alliance.org.za
LINK
quote:
French police have detained a native of Donbas who was planning to blow up a cargo with military aid to Ukraine
French police have detained a native of Donbas near Paris's Charles de Gaulle airport who is suspected of attempting to blow up a cargo of weapons for Ukraine. This was reported by Le Journal du Dimanche.
The police found explosive devices, cash, blank passports and weapons. The detainee intended to blow up French military equipment intended for shipment to Ukraine.
LINK
quote:
The russian army continues to build up its forces on the northern border of Ukraine, reports the spokesman of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine Andrii Demchenko.
"We are observing the ongoing efforts of the enemy to bolster their presence along the border with Ukraine. We can't rule out the possibility of them expanding the conflict to other areas, such as the Kharkiv or Sumy regions. However, it's evident that the enemy lacks the necessary forces to accomplish their strategic objective," says Demchenko.
LINK
quote:
Russia will supply long-range weapons to countries for "sensitive strikes" against Ukraine's allies
Putin said that "strikes against Russia with the participation of Western countries means their direct war against Russia." He threatened to send long-range weapons to regions from where “sensitive strikes” would be launched against states supplying weapons to Ukraine.
Earlier, Putin said European countries should "remember that they have a large population density" when deciding whether to authorize the use of their supplied weapons for strikes on Russian territory.
LINK
quote:
#Hungary will not participate in possible #NATO operations against #Russia in #Ukraine - Prime Minister Orban in an interview with journalists.
LINK
Posted on 6/6/24 at 6:42 am to doubleb
quote:
Thank you. I was worried you might object.
If I objected to everyone sharing bland statements of support for Ukraine to get upvotes and make themselves feel better, I'd be here for hours.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 6:48 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
#Hungary will not participate in possible #NATO operations against #Russia in #Ukraine - Prime Minister Orban in an interview with journalists.
Shocker
quote:
Kremlin and White House negotiate possible release of journalist Evan Gershkovich
Biden trying to gain brownie points before November
quote:
After the de-occupation of the territory where the Kakhovka hydroelectric station is located, the object can be rebuilt in 6-7 years.
More stuff for US taxpayers to foot the bill for
Posted on 6/6/24 at 7:01 am to VolSquatch
quote:
More stuff for US taxpayers to foot the bill for
The EU has already committed to fund the rebuilding of Ukraine. The US rebuilt the oil and gas drilling and production of Russia in the 1990's
Posted on 6/6/24 at 7:11 am to CitizenK
Updated: Ukraine's military intelligence destroys Russian tugboat in Crimea
by Martin Fornusek June 6, 2024 10:31 AM
Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) carried out a naval strike in occupied Crimea overnight on June 6, destroying a Project 498 "Saturn" raiding tugboat, the agency said.
The agency's spokesperson, Andrii Yusov, reported on the vessel's destruction earlier the same day on national television.
The boat was destroyed in Panske Lake, which lies on Crimea's western shores, only a few kilometers from the coastal town of Chornomorske. Ukrainian naval drones operated by the military intelligence agency reportedly destroyed two other boats near Chornomorske overnight on May 30.
The agency published a video of the latest attack, which appears to capture several naval drones ramming into the Russian vessel.
"Another enemy vessel was destroyed tonight in the Black Sea. The naval strike by special units of the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) was successful, resulting in 'minus one' enemy vessel," Yusov said on air on national television.
According to the spokesperson, the operation was possible thanks to a breakthrough in fortifications built by Russian forces.
LINK with video
by Martin Fornusek June 6, 2024 10:31 AM
Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) carried out a naval strike in occupied Crimea overnight on June 6, destroying a Project 498 "Saturn" raiding tugboat, the agency said.
The agency's spokesperson, Andrii Yusov, reported on the vessel's destruction earlier the same day on national television.
The boat was destroyed in Panske Lake, which lies on Crimea's western shores, only a few kilometers from the coastal town of Chornomorske. Ukrainian naval drones operated by the military intelligence agency reportedly destroyed two other boats near Chornomorske overnight on May 30.
The agency published a video of the latest attack, which appears to capture several naval drones ramming into the Russian vessel.
"Another enemy vessel was destroyed tonight in the Black Sea. The naval strike by special units of the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) was successful, resulting in 'minus one' enemy vessel," Yusov said on air on national television.
According to the spokesperson, the operation was possible thanks to a breakthrough in fortifications built by Russian forces.
LINK with video
Posted on 6/6/24 at 7:18 am to cypher
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 06 June 2024
On 29 May 2024 Ukrainian missile strikes damaged two Russian roll-on roll-off (RO-RO) rail ferries on the Crimean side of the Kerch Strait crossing, rendering them non-operational. These rail ferries almost certainly provided the primary means of rail transportation for Russian fuel and ammunition train loads to Crimea due to the stringent security measures employed on the Kerch Bridge. Russia also operates vehicle RO-RO ferries to support the movement of heavy loads across the Strait, which have resumed operations post-strike.
The degraded rail crossing capacity almost certainly caused significant temporary disruption to Russian military logistics operations and potentially, Crimea's fuel supply. Russia will almost certainly be forced to replace the rail ferry service as soon as possible, likely impacting its wider maritime logistics operations, or risk relaxing its procedures by using the rail bridge to transit fuel and explosive stores. The Ukrainian strike on the ferry crossings and a subsequent attack on a nearby fuel depot, highlights again the vulnerability of the Strait to Ukrainian interdiction, despite Russia's significant investment in security and air defence.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 06 June 2024
On 29 May 2024 Ukrainian missile strikes damaged two Russian roll-on roll-off (RO-RO) rail ferries on the Crimean side of the Kerch Strait crossing, rendering them non-operational. These rail ferries almost certainly provided the primary means of rail transportation for Russian fuel and ammunition train loads to Crimea due to the stringent security measures employed on the Kerch Bridge. Russia also operates vehicle RO-RO ferries to support the movement of heavy loads across the Strait, which have resumed operations post-strike.
The degraded rail crossing capacity almost certainly caused significant temporary disruption to Russian military logistics operations and potentially, Crimea's fuel supply. Russia will almost certainly be forced to replace the rail ferry service as soon as possible, likely impacting its wider maritime logistics operations, or risk relaxing its procedures by using the rail bridge to transit fuel and explosive stores. The Ukrainian strike on the ferry crossings and a subsequent attack on a nearby fuel depot, highlights again the vulnerability of the Strait to Ukrainian interdiction, despite Russia's significant investment in security and air defence.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 7:20 am to CitizenK
quote:
The EU has already committed to fund the rebuilding of Ukraine.
And the US has also said we would help fund the rebuilding.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 7:24 am to VolSquatch
quote:
If I objected to everyone sharing bland statements of support for Ukraine to get upvotes and make themselves feel better, I'd be here for hours.
You are here for hours.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 7:36 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Russian army captured a French mercenary in the neighbourhood of Liptsy, Kharkov region.
Luxembourg flag velcro patch is such a nice touch.
Where TF are OML, Bunk, and Colt who haven't posted this already?
The folks over at Napolitano's Judging Freedom will be on this like a pack dogs trying to get a dog in heat. The problem is they are like chihuahuas trying to mount a collie the most they ever get is halfway up a leg.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 8:59 am to VolSquatch
quote:
The EU has already committed to fund the rebuilding of Ukraine.
And the US has also said we would help fund the rebuilding.
Russia broke it. Make them pay to fix it.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 9:18 am to No Colors
quote:
Russia broke it. Make them pay to fix it.
Hard agree
Posted on 6/6/24 at 9:19 am to doubleb
quote:
You are here for hours.
Well some of you have been here for years so let me know when I get that far
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