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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/10/23 at 2:33 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 3/10/23 at 2:33 pm to GOP_Tiger
The question of who benefits more from a longer conflict is a complex question. But it certainly a matter of concern for Ukraine that they are well past the point of waiting lines to enlist. This article is a couple of weeks old, but I'm pretty sure we didn't discuss it.
The Economist:
To me, this is just another sign that Ukraine's spring offensive MUST work. If it fails, I get more confident every day that we will end up with a "frozen conflict" with "borders" where they are now. Ukraine just won't have the money, men, or external support in the long term, if they don't show significant progress by the end of the summer.
By contrast, if the spring offensive is successful, I think that the war will likely end on very favorable terms for Ukraine.
I just have no way to gauge the prospects for that offensive.
The Economist:
quote:
Ruslan kubay was surprised to receive a draft notice in late January. Registered as seriously disabled since childhood—Mr Kubay is missing both hands—he falls under a list of automatic exemptions from service. Even more surprising, however, was the reaction of officials at the local registration office in Drohobych, near Lviv. Far from admitting their error, they doubled down and declared him fit for service. Only a social-media post and subsequent national scandal reversed the decision. “I was disgusted by how easily our blind people can start seeing,” he wrote on Facebook.
Mr Kubay’s case was an extreme, but far from isolated, incident. Ukraine has visibly stepped up mobilisation activities in the first two months of this year. For unclear reasons, officials in western Ukraine have been the most aggressive, but the trend is clear across the country. There have been reports of draft notices issued (and sometimes violently enforced) at military funerals in Lviv, checkpoints in Kharkiv, shopping centres in Kyiv and on street corners in Odessa. Popular ski resorts lie deserted despite the first proper snows of the winter—footage of military officials snooping around at the slopes was enough to keep the crowds away. In every town and city across the country social-media channels share information about where recruitment officers might be lurking.
Mobilisation has been going on since the beginning of the war. In contrast to Russia, the process is not hidden: in February, President Volodymyr Zelensky extended martial law and general-mobilisation legislation for the sixth time. But there have been big changes since December. Previously only members of Ukraine’s draft commission were allowed to issue notices, and only at home addresses. Now a wider group of officials can issue the two-part document, and there is no geographical limitation. Another difference is who is being called up. In the first wave most of the recruits were voluntary; queues outside draft offices were a frequent sight. Now officials are recruiting from a much less enthusiastic crowd.
quote:
In a country like Ukraine, there are inevitably less-than-legal ways to escape the call-up too. “It’s a dialectic of nature,” says Colonel Kevlyuk, who worked in the General Staff until 2021. “Wherever there is demand, you’ll always find someone to supply it.” Some arrange fictitious marriages with mothers of three or more children. Others get corrupt military doctors to issue a medical exemption. For a few thousand dollars, one can pay to be smuggled across the border. But the appetite for risk is falling after a series of well-publicised draft-dodging prosecutions.
Government officials say excesses are being addressed as they come to light. But with the army set on achieving a military breakthrough before the summer, recruitment of less-motivated Ukrainians will surely be stepped up, and scandals will probably continue. The armed forces may respond to legal challenges by improving their bureaucracy, but there are other ways to deal with them too. Informed sources say that at least two lawyers disputing draft orders have abruptly been called up themselves. As the army well knows, mobilised lawyers are automatically barred from practising.
To me, this is just another sign that Ukraine's spring offensive MUST work. If it fails, I get more confident every day that we will end up with a "frozen conflict" with "borders" where they are now. Ukraine just won't have the money, men, or external support in the long term, if they don't show significant progress by the end of the summer.
By contrast, if the spring offensive is successful, I think that the war will likely end on very favorable terms for Ukraine.
I just have no way to gauge the prospects for that offensive.
3
Posted on 3/10/23 at 2:46 pm to Pettifogger
I have said probably 50 times on here that the Russians can only fight for about 6 months until they start having serious supply and parts issues. That wasn’t my opinion it’s a simple fact.
Very few militaries are designed to fight long drawn out conflicts, (unfortunately ours is designed that way). Even the Germans with their massive industrial complex were designed to fight quick drug induced blitzkreig battles in succession, when it turned into a long drawn out war of attrition, they were screwed. Hitler was counting on getting the bomb or wonder weapon first. Didn’t happen.
Putin isn’t a military person at all. He doesn’t get it. This was an incredibly stupid war to start. He obviously never read the art of war.
Very few militaries are designed to fight long drawn out conflicts, (unfortunately ours is designed that way). Even the Germans with their massive industrial complex were designed to fight quick drug induced blitzkreig battles in succession, when it turned into a long drawn out war of attrition, they were screwed. Hitler was counting on getting the bomb or wonder weapon first. Didn’t happen.
Putin isn’t a military person at all. He doesn’t get it. This was an incredibly stupid war to start. He obviously never read the art of war.
Posted on 3/10/23 at 2:57 pm to GOP_Tiger
For those of you trying to decipher the Nord Stream mysteries, this is the guy to follow.
He does a lot of digging into the new theory that a pro-Ukrainian group rented a yacht in Germany and used it to bomb the pipelines. Some things make sense, and some don't.
You can also follow him on Twitter.
He does a lot of digging into the new theory that a pro-Ukrainian group rented a yacht in Germany and used it to bomb the pipelines. Some things make sense, and some don't.
You can also follow him on Twitter.
Posted on 3/10/23 at 4:16 pm to OutsideObserver
It would be great to see Leopards and Abrams rolling through Bakhmut destroying Wagner for good but really they have to make their attack on the south. We do t know how many offensives Ukraine can muster and the Russian military is severely degraded, especially their armored units. Ukraine has to shoot it’s shot in the next offensive win, lose or draw. If they can get 100 western tanks and 200 IFVs to go with the hundreds of M113s that are antiquated to our forces now but the Ukranians have put them to good use and love them for their speed and manueverability. I honestly think if they put these western mechanized units to good use backed up with their Soviet tanks and vehicles and follow their training of combined arms maneuvering that they can cut that land bridge from Crimea. That would force Russsia to the negotiating table.
Posted on 3/10/23 at 5:10 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Ukraine just won't have the money, men, or external support in the long term,
Ukraine has about 7 million military aged males. About 1.2 million of those are currently in some form of uniform.
About 250,000 men fit for military service turn 18 each year.
Ukraine is losing men. But they're only putting out there what they can afford to lose. They're training several hundred thousand men right now. 1/3 of those will be used to bolster the spring offensive. 1/3 will be used to rotate troops that have been on the front lines. And 1/3 will be held in reserve to either exploit a gain or defend against a Russian counter attack. That's an adequate force.
Money isn't the issue either. The US and the EU can float the Ukes longer than the Russians can float their own crippled economy. We broke them once 30 years ago. Since then our economy has grown 20x. And theirs has grown about 3x. It's no contest.
And we're not going to just wake up and get tired of this war and withdraw our support. We've cast our lot with Ukraine. The entire western political economic system is on the line. Somebody is gonna win this thing. We're not gonna compromise or split some baby just to declare victory and go home.
This thing ends with Putin face planting below a window somewhere and Abrmas tanks rolling into Sevastopol.
Posted on 3/10/23 at 6:22 pm to GOP_Tiger
The Swiss may have decided to further entrench themselves in their neutrality today, but it appears that Japan is heading in the opposite direction. I can't get past the paywall with either the Internet Archive or with 12-foot Ladder, so all I can get is the first two paragraphs, but they still tell the story, I think.
LINK
Basically, Japan wants other nations to provide to Taiwan in the event that China invades.
But they are currently hypocrites, because they won't give weapons to Ukraine, only non-lethal aid. So, they want to change their laws to allow weapons to be sent to countries that have been invaded and are resisting.
Japan obviously has lots of equipment that Ukraine would like, but I think everyone knows that 155mm artillery shells are at the top of the list, and Japan certainly has some that they could send.
LINK
quote:
The government and the Liberal Democratic Party have come up with a plan to add countries that have been invaded to the export destinations of defense equipment with lethal force. There is a view that diplomatic credibility could be undermined if the United States and Europe do not provide weapons. In anticipation of the Taiwan emergency, there are calls for support for Ukraine, which Russia has invaded.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida touched on revisions to export rules at a House of Councilors Budget Committee meeting on June 1, stating, "We must come to a conclusion."
Basically, Japan wants other nations to provide to Taiwan in the event that China invades.
But they are currently hypocrites, because they won't give weapons to Ukraine, only non-lethal aid. So, they want to change their laws to allow weapons to be sent to countries that have been invaded and are resisting.
Japan obviously has lots of equipment that Ukraine would like, but I think everyone knows that 155mm artillery shells are at the top of the list, and Japan certainly has some that they could send.
Posted on 3/10/23 at 6:35 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
I saw some reporting in the last couple of days where the US was now testing inexpensive UAVs dropping munitions. We are learning from what is happening in this war.
I feel like “inexpensive” might have a different meaning to our military.
But I suppose it’s all relative.
Posted on 3/10/23 at 6:39 pm to No Colors
quote:
About 250,000 men fit for military service turn 18 each year.
How many of those are in Poland, Germany, or Canada right now? And how does the quality of a volunteer unit compare with units composed of addicts and slackers?
quote:
Money isn't the issue either. The US and the EU can float the Ukes longer than the Russians can float their own crippled economy.
Can and will are different things. Speaker McCarthy was talking again yesterday about "no blank check." I am well aware that more of the financial aid (as opposed to military) has come from the EU, rather than the US, but European support will falter, if the US withdraws help.
quote:
And we're not going to just wake up and get tired of this war and withdraw our support. We've cast our lot with Ukraine. The entire western political economic system is on the line. Somebody is gonna win this thing. We're not gonna compromise or split some baby just to declare victory and go home.
I certainly hope you are correct, but I don't think that it's a given. McCarthy is not going to allow another standalone Ukraine aid bill to come to a vote, because doing so could cost him his position as Speaker. There are something like six different ways that Biden can get assistance to Ukraine without the House, but they either are small or are not easy.
Realistically, the only way that another big Ukraine aid bill is going to pass is if Biden also gives the House GOP something that it wants in exchange (something like a bill to fight the cartels and better secure the southern border). Unless Ukraine succeeds with its spring offensive, that seems unlikely to happen.
Posted on 3/10/23 at 6:50 pm to GOP_Tiger
I would rather Japan sell/give Taiwan all they can give rather than Ukraine. If U can't win with the west supplying them, they can;t win.
Posted on 3/10/23 at 7:07 pm to jeffsdad
quote:
I would rather Japan sell/give Taiwan all they can give rather than Ukraine. If U can't win with the west supplying them, they can;t win.
To give you an idea on how much East Asia hates the CCP, go back in time and visit 1943 Taipei and 1943 Seoul and tell them "in 80 years, you and the Japanese will be friends allied against Beijing."
Posted on 3/10/23 at 7:08 pm to jefffan
quote:
jeffsdad
Hey! Looks like your son has a
quote:
jefffan
Posted on 3/10/23 at 7:29 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
Ukraine has to shoot it’s shot in the next offensive win, lose or draw. If they can get 100 western tanks and 200 IFVs to go with the hundreds of M113s that are antiquated to our forces now but the Ukranians have put them to good use and love them for their speed and manueverability. I honestly think if they put these western mechanized units to good use backed up with their Soviet tanks and vehicles and follow their training of combined arms maneuvering that they can cut that land bridge from Crimea. That would force Russsia to the negotiating table.
Before Ukraine was promised GLSDB, Storm Shadow, and JDAM-ER, I thought it was possible that the big offensive would be in the northeast. But now, the potential to drive to the Sea of Azov and completely cut off Crimea is too big to ignore -- it could win the war.
quote:
If they can get 100 western tanks and 200 IFVs to go with the hundreds of M113s that are antiquated to our forces now but the Ukranians have put them to good use and love them for their speed and manueverability. I honestly think if they put these western mechanized units to good use backed up with their Soviet tanks and vehicles and follow their training of combined arms maneuvering that they can cut that land bridge from Crimea.
From everything that I read, they still need more of anything that has any armor and can move. Ukraine's military is now five times as big as it was in 2021, and there's still way too much of it that's unsupported infantry.
Some of the "known unknowns" that are on my mind at this time:
- When will promised NATO equipment arrive? So far, Poland is the only nation in the Leopard coalition to deliver the tanks it's promised. I have been operating under the assumption that the spring offensive would commence in mid-April, but that could be delayed if Ukraine is still waiting on crucial pieces of equipment.
- How much ammo has Ukraine stored up for this offensive? We know that their units in places such as Bakhmut are rationing heavily, but how much are they saving?
- Likewise, what does Russia have stored in that area? Ukraine will try to cut rails and roads to the South in advance of the assault, so Russia will have difficulty in resupply.
- On that topic, how well can Ukraine isolate Russian forces in the area of attack? HIMARS, GLSDB (if available in time), Storm Shadow, and JDAM-ER could all be used to cut rail lines, destroy bridges, and cut off supply -- but how successful will those efforts be? If Ukraine can successfully disrupt Russian logistics, then the balance will shift significantly in their favor.
- How successfully will Ukraine execute a combined arms offensive? They weren't really able to do it in Kherson last fall. The Kharkiv offensive was successful not because of combined arms, but rather because Russia had so few troops in the area. NATO has only trained a limited number of troops, and some of the men in the Ukrainian offensive will be newly mobilized soldiers.
- Exactly where will Ukraine attack, and how well will Russia anticipate that? I think that the assumption was that Ukraine would attack towards Melitopol, but Russia has dug a crazy amount of trenches in that area, and it's reasonable to assume that they have likewise saturated the area with mines. Ukraine has gotten lots of equipment to disarm mines and bridge large trenches, but they might just choose to attack further east, towards Berdyansk or even Mariupol.
Those are the major questions I have. I tend to think that Ukraine will be successful, as NATO and Ukraine have wargamed this offensive, and everyone seems very confident. But I don't know.
Posted on 3/10/23 at 7:45 pm to GOP_Tiger
ISW
quote:
US intelligence warned that individuals with ties to Russian intelligence may be planning to attempt to instigate an insurrection in Moldova. CNN reported on March 10 that White House officials believe that Russian intelligence-linked individuals are planning to stage protests against the Moldovan government with the intent of fomenting a “manufactured insurrection” to install a pro-Russian administration in Moldova.[1] CNN reported that the US believes Russia has been spreading disinformation about Moldova’s purported instability and supporting it with information operations emanating from Russian-occupied Transnistria
quote:
Russian forces continue to establish defensive lines in rear areas far from current frontlines and areas in Russia that will likely never see fighting. Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov claimed on March 9 that Russian authorities finished constructing the “zasechnaya line” of fortifications along Belgorod Oblast’s border with Ukraine.[4] Gladkov claimed that Russian forces should dedicate troops to defending this system of fortifications in case of an implausible Ukrainian attack on Belgorod Oblast. Russian forces would significantly misallocate forces that would be better suited supporting active offensive operations elsewhere in Ukraine by manning these fortifications. Gladkov also claimed that Russian officials spent 10 billion rubles (about $132 million) constructing the defensive line, a likely waste of funds amid questions about Russia’s ability to fund its war effort in Ukraine.[5] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported on March 10 that Russian forces continued building fortifications along Kursk Oblast‘s border with Ukraine, another area that will likely never see fighting.[6] Occupied Crimea head Sergey Aksyonov claimed on March 10 that Russian forces are constructing a defensive line in Crimea and implied that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the construction of the line.
quote:
Russian Commissioner on Children’s Rights, Maria Lvova-Belova, confirmed that the Russian government is using a variety of schemes to deport Ukrainian children to Russia in a comment that was apparently meant to disprove Western allegations of the illegality of these actions. In a Telegram post published on March 10, Lvova-Belova accused the West of artificially manufacturing fear regarding the deportation and forced adoption of Ukrainian children and claimed that children came to occupied areas of Ukraine and Russian territory “voluntarily” and can return to their families.[8] Lvova-Belova admitted that Russian authorities have taken children from Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Kharkiv oblasts to “sanatoriums” and health camps in occupied Crimea and Krasnodar Krai for “rest” and protection from hostilities and claimed that 89 “children of Ukrainian citizens” will be reunited with their families from such programs in Crimea and Krasnodar Krai.[9] ISW has previously reported on such schemes to remove children from Ukraine under the guise of rest and relaxation programs and noted that several children in Krasnodar Krai and Crimea have been held for forced adoption into Russian families.[10] An independent investigation by Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab found that of likely over 14,700 Ukrainian children deported to Russia, only 126 returned to Ukraine as of January 2023
quote:
Key Takeaways
US intelligence warned that individuals with ties to Russian intelligence may be planning to attempt to instigate an insurrection in Moldova.
Russian forces continue to establish defensive lines in areas in rear areas far from current frontlines and areas in Russia that will likely never see fighting.
Russian Commissioner on Children’s Rights, Maria Lvova-Belova, confirmed that the Russian government is using a variety of schemes to deport Ukrainian children to Russia in a comment that was apparently meant to disprove Western allegations of the illegality of these actions.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian sources claimed that Wagner Group forces entered the built-up AZOM industrial complex, and frontal assaults on the complex will likely be costly for Wagner Group forces.
Russian forces made gains in Bakhmut, are clearing eastern parts of the city, and have advanced to new positions in northwestern Bakhmut within 800 meters of the AZOM metal processing plant.
Russian forces continue reconnaissance activity near islands in the Dnipro River delta.
The Wagner Group continues to expand efforts to recruitment efforts in Russia.
Russian officials and occupation authorities continue to announce new infrastructure projects to increase connectivity between the Russian mainland and occupied territories.
Posted on 3/10/23 at 7:50 pm to LSUPilot07
LINK
Finland talks about F-18s.
Finland currently has 55 F-18Cs and 7 F-18Ds. They have 64 F-35s on order and are supposed to get the first one delivered in 2026, whereupon they will start phasing out the F-18s.
Finland talks about F-18s.
quote:
Prime Minister Sanna Marin , who visited Kyiv today , has said that the fighter jets that Ukraine wants can be discussed in Finland as well.
In his opinion, Finland is in an interesting position, because it has made decisions about acquiring new fighter jets.
- Yes, I think we can have a discussion regarding the Hornets as well, whether it would be possible to hand them over to Ukraine and what kind of training it would require, Marin has said.
Marin emphasized that discussions on the issue of fighter jets are at a very early stage and extensive international cooperation is needed.
According to President Sauli Niinistö, there has been no discussion with anyone about handing over Finland's decommissioned Hornet fighters to Ukraine.
Niinistö is currently visiting the United States. The President's Office forwarded his comments to STT by email.
Prime Minister Sanna Marin (sd.) said on Friday during her visit to Kyiv that the transfer of Finland's decommissioned fighter jets to Ukraine can be evaluated. Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen (center) later commented to Iltalehte and MTV news that he did not know in advance about Marin's intentions to speak about the matter in Kyiv.
Finland currently has 55 F-18Cs and 7 F-18Ds. They have 64 F-35s on order and are supposed to get the first one delivered in 2026, whereupon they will start phasing out the F-18s.
Posted on 3/10/23 at 8:10 pm to GOP_Tiger
The news tonight about Bakhmut is not good for Ukraine.
First, from @NOELreports,
From @War_Mapper,
@DefMon3 is not happy with the Ukrainian decision to stay in the city:
DefMon quotes a Ukrainian infantryman:
There seems to be increasing criticism of Gen. Syrski, and not a few people think that he's making an idiotic mistake by staying in Bakhmut. But we've repeatedly hashed out the reasons that Ukraine might be staying in the city, so I'm not going to go through all that again.
ISW:
First, from @NOELreports,
quote:
Bakhmut center: the situation is worrisome. Despite the river barrier, Russian troops in the north have managed to reach the industrial zone. Combat is fierce. Russian troops are also making progress in the south near the forest. Literally everything is thrown into battle by RU.
From @War_Mapper,
quote:
RU are probing UA defences in the northern Industrial district of the city.
@DefMon3 is not happy with the Ukrainian decision to stay in the city:
quote:
The orange dashed line represent the estimated RU forwards positions 3 days ago. RuAF have advanced slightly in the NW direction .
DefMon quotes a Ukrainian infantryman:
quote:
As soon as the Russians take the road to Khromovo, Bakhmut will gradually begin to transform from a fortress into a large mass grave. Then there will be no point in keeping silent about things that have been bothering you for many months. Maybe someone will see treason in them, but I will already sneeze deeply. Patience is running out.
There seems to be increasing criticism of Gen. Syrski, and not a few people think that he's making an idiotic mistake by staying in Bakhmut. But we've repeatedly hashed out the reasons that Ukraine might be staying in the city, so I'm not going to go through all that again.
ISW:
quote:
#Russian forces made gains in #Bakhmut, are clearing eastern parts of the city, and have advanced to new positions in northwestern Bakhmut within 800 meters of the AZOM metal processing plant.
This post was edited on 3/10/23 at 8:37 pm
Posted on 3/10/23 at 9:50 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
For those of you trying to decipher the Nord Stream mysteries, this is the guy to follow.
Same guy who pointed out all of the holes in Sy Hersh's claims. Good to see. Excellent
Posted on 3/10/23 at 9:58 pm to CitizenK
Wagner is apparently being setup as the fall guys in Ukraine ( which has been pretty obvious given events the last 3 months).
Here's an example: LINK
Ukraine has allegedly found Russian Army directives. They state:
I'm guessing Prigozhin's statements over the next few days aren't going to be very rosy if this is true.
Here's an example: LINK
Ukraine has allegedly found Russian Army directives. They state:
quote:
Wear proper attire; do not wear patches or other insignia identifying your unit.
Be reserved while dealing with the civilians in "liberated areas", do not seek contact with them, and do not accept any food or other items from them.
Use first person: WE advance, etc.
Tell civilians in "liberated areas" that Russia is here forever, and advise them to only use official Russian info sources.
Refer to the Ukrainian troops only as Nazis/nationalists, militants, and invaders; tell locals that we are at war with NATO.
In case of incidents (traffic incidents, servicemen under influence of alcohol/drugs, injuries or fatalities among civilians, etc.) identify yourself as a Wagner PMC combatant.
Servicemen are not banned from occupying empty housing in "liberated areas" but only if it is confirmed that the residents are no longer present in the same settlement. The same applies to vehicles. In emergencies, it is allowed to remove residents if it's authorized.
Any statements in relation to Russia's military and political leaders should only be in a positive light.
I'm guessing Prigozhin's statements over the next few days aren't going to be very rosy if this is true.
This post was edited on 3/10/23 at 9:59 pm
Posted on 3/10/23 at 10:18 pm to CitizenK
Noting the severing of the pipe was at deepest sections thus meant to be repaired, which is done in 40 foot sections.
That lends credence to a Russian false flag operation.
That lends credence to a Russian false flag operation.
Posted on 3/10/23 at 10:33 pm to jefffan
quote:
Wagner has apparently entered a tactical pause around Bakhmut. Big if True.
This is the longest 72 hour retreat in history
Man how embarrassing will this be if Ukraine pushes them out of Bakhmut after everything?
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