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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 10/10/22 at 9:52 pm to WestCoastAg
Posted on 10/10/22 at 9:52 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
im simply acknowledging that its weird you would be so willing to give alaska up to appease russia
Ummm, seriously can you read? No, there’d be nuclear missiles 400 miles from Seattle, attacking American state, and ruling over American people against their will. How dumb do you have to be to think Ukraine is equivalent of this in a national security perspective?
This post was edited on 10/10/22 at 10:00 pm
1
Posted on 10/10/22 at 9:53 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
I was right about October which I’ve been saying since May. I’m track record is good especially when that arrives right on schedule
Uh, but that wasn't even a major part of your substantive claims, because that argument still has several, several other things you claimed were going to happen that are not close to happening.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 9:53 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
And when you turn out to be wrong, I hope you'll gain some introspection on how little you understand about the world.
Cold callers don't care if they are wrong 1,000 times but when they are right once they burn up the phone lines to remind you how prescient they are.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 9:53 pm to AbuTheMonkey
quote:
I'll bet you $100 right now that wheat is below $1,200 on November 1st. Want to take that bet?
Don’t know the exact price of wheat, but it being high enough where many can’t afford it and there are mass riots in Europe, done.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 9:54 pm to OMLandshark
quote:so we should probably just also give them the PNW to avoid this
No, there’d be nuclear missiles 400 miles from Seattle, attacking American state, and ruling over American people against their will
Posted on 10/10/22 at 9:55 pm to OMLandshark
I volunteer California and Oregon.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 9:55 pm to doubleb
now we are talking OMLs language!
Posted on 10/10/22 at 9:57 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
Don’t know the exact price of wheat, but it being high enough where many can’t afford it and there are mass riots in Europe, done
Wow. You are truly evil.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 9:58 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Respond like an adult for once. What indicators are there for your imagined (and what seems like wished for) scenario? Don't give me UN links which you clearly didn't read like you did last time.
Common sense. You don’t interrupt the supply lines like this and don’t expect things to be good. Again when y’all were all hung-go in September that everything was going and you were going well, while I was glad I told you all to hold your horses. I was clearly correct.
I want Ukraine to win, but this war wasn’t going to be resolved in a month as you people shitfaced on war basically thought. Again, I let that guide me through Russia’s reaction, and I was spot on. I’ve said for months it would be October when Russia escalated things, and I was correct even if people want to change the definition of that word.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:01 pm to Pendulum
ISW update
quote:
Russian forces conducted a massive missile strike attack against over 20 cities, including Kyiv, on October 10. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces
quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed to have ordered the missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure in retaliation for a “terrorist act” at the Kerch Strait Bridge, likely in part to curry favor with the Russian pro-war nationalist camp that has been demanding such retaliation
quote:
Putin emphasized that he would conduct proportional escalation in any future retaliatory actions
quote:
The October 10 Russian attacks wasted some of Russia’s dwindling precision weapons against civilian targets, as opposed to militarily significant targets
quote:
Russian and Belarusian forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine from the north despite Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's October 10 announcement that Belarus and Russia agreed to deploy the Union State’s Regional Grouping of Forces (RGV) —a strategic formation of Russian and Belarusian units tasked with defending the Union State
quote:
Key Takeaways
Russian forces conducted massive, coordinated missile strikes on over 20 Ukrainian cities.
President Vladimir Putin claimed that the coordinated missile strikes were in retaliation for the explosion on the Kerch Strait Bridge, likely in part to curry favor with “pro-war” factions.
Russian and Belarusian ground forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine from Belarusian territory to the north.
Ukrainian forces have likely liberated over 200 square kilometers of territory in western Luhansk Oblast as of October 10.
Russian forces continued unsuccessful attempts to regain recently lost territory in northwest Kherson Oblast while reinforcing nearby positions with damaged and hastily mobilized units.
Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian and occupation administration officials are setting conditions to move up to 40,000 residents out of Kherson Oblast to Russian-occupied Crimea and the Russian Federation.
Russian forces cannot supply mobilized forces, likely due to years of supply theft by contract soldiers and commanders
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:01 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Uh, but that wasn't even a major part of your substantive claims, because that argument still has several, several other things you claimed were going to happen that are not close to happening.
I said the ride would turn for the worst in October over desperation. I stand by my soft famine arguments. It’s going to be announced in 3-6 weeks from now. I stand by what I said. It’s going to make things much worse.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:01 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
Again when y’all were all hung-go in September that everything was going and you were going well, while I was glad I told you all to hold your horses. I was clearly correct.
If you think you were "clearly correct" you have lost all grasp of reality. There is nothing on the sand table right now that indicates you were right and there will be any shift of momentum to Russia this month. There may be in the next 3 weeks but not now.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:03 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
quote:
I'll bet you $100 right now that wheat is below $1,200 on November 1st. Want to take that bet?
Don’t know the exact price of wheat, but it being high enough where many can’t afford it and there are mass riots in Europe, done.
I'll admit that I appreciate the forthrightness. I'll be bumping this in three weeks.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:03 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
so we should probably just also give them the PNW to avoid this
I think there’s a line for risking war with a major power. Ukraine is not it, but Alaska would be. And again as much as y’all accuse me of loving Taiwan, Alaska is over it. Everything goes to shite with China invading Taiwan, but Russia invading Alaska can not be tolerated whatsoever. Yeah, I’d vote for war with Russia on that one.
This post was edited on 10/10/22 at 10:08 pm
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:06 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
If you think you were "clearly correct" you have lost all grasp of reality. There is nothing on the sand table right now that indicates you were right and there will be any shift of momentum to Russia this month. There may be in the next 3 weeks but not now.
It’s the 10th and it’s escalated. I think the true shite show begins in the next two months. No, this is an escalation to one degree or another I thought would happen. Just wait another few weeks.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:08 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
Common sense. You don’t interrupt the supply lines like this and don’t expect things to be good. Again when y’all were all hung-go in September that everything was going and you were going well, while I was glad I told you all to hold your horses. I was clearly correct.
Again, if you were 'clearly correct,' this should be reflected in very specific economic indicators. Post the fricking data for once or shut the frick up.
quote:
I want Ukraine to win, but this war wasn’t going to be resolved in a month as you people shitfaced on war basically thought. Again, I let that guide me through Russia’s reaction, and I was spot on. I’ve said for months it would be October when Russia escalated things, and I was correct even if people want to change the definition of that word.
Oh frick off. The only people who thought this war was going to be swift was the Russians, who let us know that through their initial invasion. You keep wanting to treat random people on message boards as though they have power to change anything, and are remarkably reticent to call a spade a spade. It is some twisted logic.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:09 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
Don’t know the exact price of wheat
LINK
1200 is about a 29% move from here. Almost impossible before Nov 1st unless there is a serious crisis.
Out of curiosity I checked the options trading on weat right now, and for Nov4 22 calls you basically could pay like $50 and get $200 back if it hits 1200 so the bet doesnt quite make sense to take in any event
This post was edited on 10/10/22 at 10:27 pm
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:09 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
Aviation guys, is it an SU25?
Definitely not a SU-25 Frogfoot.
My guess would be a SU-34 but I'm not really seeing the extra width in the cockpit area the 34 has, so maybe just a SU-27/31 variant in ground attack role.
This post was edited on 10/10/22 at 10:14 pm
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:10 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
I said the ride would turn for the worst in October over desperation. I stand by my soft famine arguments. It’s going to be announced in 3-6 weeks from now. I stand by what I said. It’s going to make things much worse.
Link me to your original posts on this, because I remember several very specific claims which you are not addressing here, oddly enough. Find the post where you made the claims so you don't go and change your history when it suits you.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:14 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Again, if you were 'clearly correct,' this should be reflected in very specific economic indicators. Post the fricking data for once or shut the frick up.
Missile strikes which is what I feared. I’ve been vol all that Russia can outlast Ukraine and Europe. Granted the Ukrainians won’t give up given it’s their country, but my bet is Europe folds to one degree or another over the energy.
quote:
be swift was the Russians, who let us know that through their initial invasion.
Yeah, but that was back in February and 2/3rds of this thread thought so as well. I’m glad it’s going poorly.
quote:
You keep wanting to treat random people on message boards as though they have power to change anything, and are remarkably reticent to call a spade a spade. It is some twisted logic.
Yeah, but isn’t it weird I’ve been ranting about October for six months, and happens nearly right when the month starts? I’m sorry, you need Devil’s advocate here, and we’re all told to shut the frick up.
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