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Posted on 9/16/20 at 11:22 am to okietiger
In a fair election, 100%.
In this election, 81.27%.
In this election, 81.27%.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 11:22 am to okietiger
1-in-3 chance
Posted on 9/16/20 at 11:23 am to okietiger
Most of the polls that have Trump trailing Biden also show him ahead of where he was with Hillary at the same point in time. So there.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 11:23 am to okietiger
75% to allow for the 25% chance the left succeeds in their election fraud.
In a fair election with an impartial or even pretending to be impartial media, it's a bloodbath. Still may be a bloodbath, but the criminals are doing everything they can to tilt it.
In a fair election with an impartial or even pretending to be impartial media, it's a bloodbath. Still may be a bloodbath, but the criminals are doing everything they can to tilt it.
This post was edited on 9/16/20 at 11:25 am
Posted on 9/16/20 at 11:24 am to okietiger
He wins if the cheating is minimized. He loses if it isn't.
Cheating is the only path for Biden.
Cheating is the only path for Biden.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 11:24 am to Jon Ham
quote:
suburban women
There are many that are NOT ok with defunding the police. It’s a direct threat to them.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 11:24 am to okietiger
3.5 out of 10
I wouldn't say I'm pessimistic, but I don't see a lot of metrics supporting an easy win and I do have concerns that anything close will swing Biden.
If Trump does well/Biden does poorly in the debates, I certainly think that could rise to 6/10 or so.
I wouldn't say I'm pessimistic, but I don't see a lot of metrics supporting an easy win and I do have concerns that anything close will swing Biden.
If Trump does well/Biden does poorly in the debates, I certainly think that could rise to 6/10 or so.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 11:26 am to okietiger
Last minute truckloads of ballots scare me, but I'm around 75-80% confidence level
Posted on 9/16/20 at 11:27 am to Pettifogger
quote:That's where all the "cheating" will happen. The damn liberal moderators will twist the debate questions solidly in Biden's favor.
If Trump does well/Biden does poorly in the debates, I certainly think that could rise to 6/10 or so.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 11:30 am to okietiger
I'd say I'm at ~75-80% at the moment. I think the map below is a reasonably conservative scenario where we assume Trump loses a few states (AZ/MI/WI) but still finds a way to win with a cushion for a few faithless electors. Key is going to be to get every single blue collar person to come down from every hill and holler in PA/MN/NH and vote for Trump. Trump campaign doing door to door campaigning while Biden is doing all virtual campaigning may end up being the margin of difference.
This post was edited on 9/16/20 at 11:33 am
Posted on 9/16/20 at 11:33 am to okietiger
Don’t know how most here can be that confident. It’s gonna be an extremely tight race. Then throw in some mail in fraud...I ain’t liking it.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 11:36 am to GeneralLee
looking at General Lee's map, I can agree with his projection as a baseline, that being said...
I think the Biden wins are going to be a lot closer than 2016 and that GEOTUS will pull a state (or two or three) that we won't expect and throw the Democrat election cheating into complete panic...
Think about it this way, Biden wins California by a million, there's a good possibility that Trump wins the popular vote.
I think the Biden wins are going to be a lot closer than 2016 and that GEOTUS will pull a state (or two or three) that we won't expect and throw the Democrat election cheating into complete panic...
Think about it this way, Biden wins California by a million, there's a good possibility that Trump wins the popular vote.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 11:43 am to GeneralLee
I don't know how Trump would win MN and not WI and MI.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 11:44 am to okietiger
Biden is a terrible, low energy candidate who stands for nothing. Trump should wipe the floor with him in an honest election.
My fear is they won’t allow Trump to win
My fear is they won’t allow Trump to win
Posted on 9/16/20 at 11:46 am to Janky
quote:
I don't know how Trump would win MN and not WI and MI.
It's quite conceivable actually. Minnesota was one of the few states where GOP gained a house seat in '18. MN has much more favorable economic trends for Trump (state reliance on fracking/mining), similar to PA. Also Minnesota has a much higher % white population than WI and MI. Listen to the People's Pundit Daily podcasts and they go over this in detail.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 11:47 am to okietiger
95% if there is a fair and honest election
I'd say I'm around 70% confident he wins
I'd say I'm around 70% confident he wins
Posted on 9/16/20 at 11:48 am to okietiger
70% confidence
Posted on 9/16/20 at 11:50 am to fillmoregandt
I'm scared to death of what depths of cheating Nancy & the left will stoop to. The only good thing is Trump is a proven street fighter, knows what is going on more than the public will ever know, and is going to attack the left aggressively and hard in his own way.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 11:51 am to GeneralLee
LINK /
This site is cool cause you can see each states polling. Trump has to win all the toss up states and take one of PA, MI, or WI. He won all three in 2016 by razor thin margins. Decked is stacked against him but there’s a long way to go. I think the debates or going to be vital.
This site is cool cause you can see each states polling. Trump has to win all the toss up states and take one of PA, MI, or WI. He won all three in 2016 by razor thin margins. Decked is stacked against him but there’s a long way to go. I think the debates or going to be vital.
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