re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

As for death projections, the promising thing about all of these projections over the next couple months are that despite a rise in deaths, and still a lot of deaths, they still only have the peak at about a little over 800 per day in mid August. Since the data show a younger skew than the earlier peak, and treatment appears to be better, the current waves IFR is projected to be much lower.

Hopefully that holds true; however, while I think it will, I think the infection (and case reporting) to death lag this time around could be a bit longer due to couple of reasons, not just the obvious fact that we’re seeing an increase this week that was later than many projected.

1. With more widespread testing catching pre-symptomatic cases. For example, my FIL was tested Tuesday or Wednesday of last week but wasn’t symptomatic until Saturday (now in ICU but it seems precautionary to get his oxygen levels up a bit more so hopefully it doesn’t get worse). Now unfortunately because the lab was off Friday it didn’t come back until Monday morning after he as symptomatic (and tested with results from hospital in less than a day), but it they hadn’t been, the results were ready (and probably reported) more than a day before symptoms. In the early peak, a lot of people weren’t tested until after symptoms presented, sometimes well after, if at all.

2. The turnaround on tests seems to have been faster recently. Save for the holiday issue above, my FIL’s hospital test came back the next day, and so did my MIL’s negative (thankfully test). My brother was tested yesterday and they said 2-3 days so we’ll see.

3. Related to number 2 seems to have been less of a backlog recently whereas the first peak was full of them. That said, my aunt was tested because she’s having surgery (supports catching pre-symptomatic cases) and they tried to get her in earlier because of backlog. I’ve seen other reports of this around the country the last couple of days, so this promising trend may be trending the other way.

4. While it’s skewing younger and a lower percentage are likely to have severe complications and die, does that also mean that those who do die are able to fight for their lives longer? It just seems possible to me that if their immune systems are more likely to fight it off, those who do eventually succumb will fight it off for longer. If so, that would create a longer lag.

5. Due to this younger skew, it’s likely a significant portion of those got it because they were less at-risk of severe complications and/or death, knew this, and were doing things that make them more at-risk of catching it though. But after it started spreading and continues to spread, it might be harder to keep it from spreading to those who are at-risk of complications (not just age) who were taking more precautions because of that. If that has happened (and is happening) then proportion of infections of those at-risk may be increasing and creating a lag when compared to the spread, which creates the death lag.

6. One of the main reasons that IHME model over predicted hospitalizations but under predicted deaths is early on there were far more hospitalizations to deaths. But when deaths starting increasing quickly towards and through the peak, especially in hotspots, this ratio quickly and dramatically decreased. So paradoxically hospitals didn’t get overwhelmed, BUT this may indicate the lags were longer (at least hospitalizations to death lag) early on but then deaths (as we saw) increased quickly (people also started dying at home). With some full hospitals, it’s possible we’re getting to that point.

So while this seems like this is a really negative post, but I don’t think we’ll get anywhere near the peak deaths as the first wave and the IFR will be lower. That said, the differences (and some similarities that may now be happening) in this wave have caused a longer case to death timeline and 800ish peak deaths (over a week or so) a little more optimistic. And I could see it going between 1000-1200, still half or even less of April’s peak though.

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no other city is as dependant on public tranportation or as dense.

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And I think they made the public transportation vector spreading worse in their attempts to stop it by running fewer trains which made for more crowded trains. That was just a lack of critical thinking on their part. You would want more trains, so they are less crowded.

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We are testing more people in a week than 90% of countries have ever tested.

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We also have a population of 330M people which is way higher than 99+% of countries

Someone needs to fact check, but this guy is about to publish data that illustrates actual date of death and the date published by CDC. He has the opinion that there is a lot of backlog death dumping driving current numbers.

Yuge if true

LINK

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So not only are states adding a bunch of old deaths, they're deaths that had ALREADY been reported to the CDC. Close to 3,000 of those deaths added for before May 2nd were already reported and counted and just got changed to "probable" Covid-19 classification recently.

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Someone needs to fact check, but this guy is about to publish data that illustrates actual date of death and the date published by CDC. He has the opinion that there is a lot of backlog death dumping driving current numbers.

Yuge if true

LINK

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So not only are states adding a bunch of old deaths, they're deaths that had ALREADY been reported to the CDC. Close to 3,000 of those deaths added for before May 2nd were already reported and counted and just got changed to "probable" Covid-19 classification recently.

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Considering shutdowns are happening over this data, if this is true, its criminal in nature.

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Chromedome, I keep an eye on Louisiana and compute two stats...

death rate of cases reported, which continues to drop, my calculation is 4.8% today

percentage of tests performed to cases reported, which is 8.1% today...

I'm going to track this for a week or so and post daily...

So for Tuesday 7 July...death rate of cases reported, 4.7%; tests performed to cases reported 8.05%

For Wednesday, 8 July - death rate of cases reported, still at 4.7%; tests performed to cases reported 8.1%

Thursday, 9 July - death rate of cases reported, dropped to 4.5%; tests performed to cases reported, up to 8.17%

Friday, 10 July - death rate of cases reported, dropped to 4.38%; tests performed to cases reported, up to 8.24%

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Saturday, 11 July - death rate of cases reported, dropped to 4.29%; tests performed to cases reported, up to 8.3%

so far, what I'm seeing is a reasonably steady decline in the death rate per cases reported, while the cases reported (found) to tests performed is increasing by fractions of a percent...

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ou would want more trains, so they are less crowded.

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Well NYC is run by a political activist LARPING as a mayor.

NYC isn't in charge of MTA that's a New york state agency my friend.

This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/















New Cases by State


New Deaths by State


7-day average growth rate of new cases

I had people I trust tell me they heard from the people themselves that the no test positive occurred and the multiple positives one person event happens because a lady worked for the counters.