re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

Last Friday was a holiday for many people

Was artificially low

Yet pales in comparison when you look at New York's 32k deaths, you have to wonder just how negligent those people were.

Looks like 854.

Cases have risen up to 3 times as many recorded cases per day since June 15th without deaths getting too crazy in proportion right?

Actual infections are probably multiples of that recorded. Once this increase passes and if hospitals all retain bed space, we have to be in good shape for any seasonality if it exists you would think.

Now 726. Might stay under 800.

Just got home, gotta unload the vehicle, cook and eat dinner then I will update the tracker.

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Actual infections are probably multiples of that recorded.

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if testing ramped up then probably not as much as initally estimated on weak testing to begin with.

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if testing ramped up then probably not as much as initally estimated on weak testing to begin with

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All I've seen are estimates starting at about 150k infections a day.

Can you link me to anyone who thinks it's much lower than that? Curious to see their thoughts that testing is catching more than half of infections.

I've been unable to look at the numbers for a couple of days now, where the heck did all these deaths come from??? We were showing a steady decline and then Boom we are averaging 885 over the last 4 days.

I would have expected a ramp up to that size of number, not an overnight sustained increase.

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Can you link me to anyone who thinks it's much lower than that? Curious to see their thoughts that testing is catching more than half of infections.

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This site has been quite accurate with their deaths projections and their R and infection estimates seem logical. They actually estimate infections as much higher, with an estimate of about 269,000 today, 3.8 times the case totals.

That’s also about 6% higher than their first peak estimate (257,000) which is 11 times higher than the cases on that day. But since they’re estimating infections, that’s also 5 days before the case peak and that might mean they’re accounting for a lag between infection and case reporting. It also seems reasonable that given more cases but lower positivity, that we’ve been catching more infections but now the case totals are rising so much and I believe positivity has started to rise (at least stopped falling) so now we’re actually surpassing the peak.

So if they are accounting for a 5 day lag, then in July 5th they estimated about 249,000 infections, which is 3.5 times today’s totals. They’re also projecting a peak of around 310,000 infections at the end of the month, but of course infections have to be estimated from case and testing data (and maybe some other parameters like deaths) so projections are especially difficult.

AI Covid 19

823k tests.

Wow.

Will we break a million per day?