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Started By
Message
Trump's MOU set a trap. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fell into it.
Posted on 7/15/26 at 3:41 pm
Posted on 7/15/26 at 3:41 pm
quote:
The Trump Trap
Trump's MOU set a trap. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fell into it.
By Kenneth R. Timmerman
July 15, 2026
All the pundits agreed that Trump gave away the store to the Iranians with the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).
He pledged to lift sanctions on Iranian oil exports and to release frozen oil revenues. He pledged to encourage Iran’s Gulf neighbors to pony up $300 billion in a reconstruction fund. He even pledged not to interfere in Iran’s domestic affairs.
The Iranians took all of that to the bank.
And then, nothing.
In fact, the Trump MOU set a trap. And Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fell into it. And that is why we’ve had several days of intense U.S. (and perhaps Kuwaiti and Bahraini) bombings of Iran this week.
The MOU was performance-based. You, the Iranians, will get all these goodies, but you have to do some very basic things, the first of which is to guarantee free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days.
And the Iranians—specifically, the IRGC—just couldn’t do it.
...
Without fanfare, the U.S. Navy and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have been escorting ships through a U.S.-protected “southern route” for the past three weeks, with great success. Despite the latest military flare-up, the oil markets are yawning. Brent crude has been trading on the spot market in the low 70s all week, and West Texas Intermediate is below $70 a barrel.
Until the Treasury Department revoked Iran’s special license to sell oil earlier this week (because of the IRGC attacks on shipping), Iran had managed to load 67 million barrels of crude onto tankers and get most of it out through the Strait into international waters, where it is still looking for buyers.
...
Even the Chinese are losing patience with the Iranians. On Friday, their Foreign Ministry spokesperson told the Iranians to knock off the attacks on international shipping and get back to the MOU. Sounds like the Chinese prefer secure oil supplies to chaos and the Imam Mahdi.
Araghchi and Qalibaf have been able to sell the carrots of the Trump MOU, but not the sticks that require IRGC performance. As I have been saying for some time, I believe we are heading back to war—the big war, not negotiating with bombs, as we have been doing this week.
The big war means the discombobulator. It means dislocation. It means the destruction of the IRGC. It means revolution.
Ultimately, that is the only way to denuclearize Iran. This regime will never do it.
LINK
13
Posted on 7/15/26 at 4:23 pm to NC_Tigah
I have said all along President Trump is the master at negotiation. He has been overly patient and forgiving. I can assure you he has not been sitting on his hands thru this process. When the hammer comes down, I have a feeling that the IRGC will 'head for the hills'. The problem is the Iranian populace. They have been kept in a box for over 45 years. While they may want freedom, they don't know any other way of life. It is like an inmate being set free from prison after 40 years, they are lost and clueless. Sadly, the Iranian people likely don't have the know how or determination to rule themselves. Otherwise, I think we would have seen continued and more coordinated efforts to combat the IRGC to a broader revolt.
Posted on 7/15/26 at 4:25 pm to NC_Tigah
I hope these decisions by the IRGC brought death throughout their leadership team.
Burn in hell swine.
Burn in hell swine.
Posted on 7/15/26 at 4:32 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Trump's MOU
Hate to be the voice of reason here, but…
They never read it.
Posted on 7/15/26 at 4:34 pm to NC_Tigah
This post was edited on 7/15/26 at 4:36 pm
Posted on 7/15/26 at 4:35 pm to OccamsStubble
quote:
They never read it.
The NYT and 2/3rds of this board claimed they wrote it
Posted on 7/15/26 at 4:36 pm to NC_Tigah
Whatever it takes to convince you we've won anything I guess
Posted on 7/15/26 at 4:39 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Trump's MOU set a trap. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fell into it.
Posted on 7/15/26 at 4:41 pm to Powerman
quote:Results convince me. We don't have those yet in this instance.
Whatever it takes to convince you we've won anything I guess
But like the LSU-OU Peach Bowl after the 1stQ, the probabilities are evident.
Posted on 7/15/26 at 4:44 pm to NC_Tigah
This was obvious when it happened to everyone with at least room temp IQ.
ETA: I see a couple posters with bellow room temp IQ have already hopped in on this.
ETA: I see a couple posters with bellow room temp IQ have already hopped in on this.
This post was edited on 7/15/26 at 4:45 pm
Posted on 7/15/26 at 4:46 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Trump's MOU set a trap. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fell into it.
The stupidity has become annoying AF at this point.
Posted on 7/15/26 at 4:50 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Results convince me. We don't have those yet in this instance.
Correct. That doesn't mean that we won't.
quote:
But like the LSU-OU Peach Bowl after the 1stQ, the probabilities are evident.
You're confusing military victories with political/strategic victories.
Blowing up a bunch of random shite doesn't mean much if it doesn't achieve the stated objectives.
Posted on 7/15/26 at 4:50 pm to Bayou Warrior 64
quote:
I have said all along President Trump is the master at negotiation.
The most misinformed and misled people are the ones who have been manipulated into believing that Donald Trump isn’t a very smart guy. Truth is, he's always been a very shrewd and astute businessman, and has a plan for every move he makes. He isn't perfect, but neither is anybody else.
I mean, the man had never even run for county commissioner before, but he ran for President and beat a bunch of seasoned politicians in the process. We had never seen anything like it before.
I saw earlier today where even China has grown tired of dealing with these nutjobs in Iran. I personally think that regime is in for a ton of trouble going forward.
Posted on 7/15/26 at 4:55 pm to NC_Tigah
I knew from the jump that you could never negotiate a deal with these people. There was no need for any trap to be set up. All you had to do is study our past history over 47yrs and know a deal was never possible.
Regime change was always going to be required here to better this situation. There was never a choice. If we kill layer after layer of leadership then maybe we might find someone that is more corrupt than radical and a Venezuela like situation can occur. We haven’t killed near enough people for that to happen yet though. We still have a lot more people to kill to even consider a deal possible. That’s just the truth. A deal with anyone in Iran just may never be possible. Radical figures may be all there is. At which point we will need to find a puppet to install. Either way it’s going to require doing a lot of things we don’t want to do to end this and get it over with.
Regime change was always going to be required here to better this situation. There was never a choice. If we kill layer after layer of leadership then maybe we might find someone that is more corrupt than radical and a Venezuela like situation can occur. We haven’t killed near enough people for that to happen yet though. We still have a lot more people to kill to even consider a deal possible. That’s just the truth. A deal with anyone in Iran just may never be possible. Radical figures may be all there is. At which point we will need to find a puppet to install. Either way it’s going to require doing a lot of things we don’t want to do to end this and get it over with.
Posted on 7/15/26 at 5:05 pm to RollingwiththeTide
quote:
I knew from the jump that you could never negotiate a deal with these people.
Yet POTUS is constantly yapping about how they're begging to make a deal
Maybe it's time to just start ignoring everything he says because it's all obviously bullshite
Posted on 7/15/26 at 5:10 pm to Powerman
It was desperate Donald who fell for the MOU. He just wanted oil flowing through the straits. It is iran who is in the catbirds seat as far as controlling the SOH. Returning to war will kill the world economy. And trump knows this.
Posted on 7/15/26 at 5:16 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Trump's MOU set a trap. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fell into it.
What D chess are we on now?
Posted on 7/15/26 at 5:22 pm to Powerman
quote:Au contraire. That was the Iranian vision. How is China responding?
You're confusing military victories with political/strategic victories.
Posted on 7/15/26 at 5:27 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Au contraire. That was the Iranian vision. How is China responding?
Nice deflection. What have we achieved with regards to our Iran goals?
Posted on 7/15/26 at 5:29 pm to NC_Tigah
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