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This one has me worried:Cook Political Report editor: Time to 'sound the alarm' on Biden's
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:18 am
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:18 am
LINK
Wasserman was one of the few political commentators who correctly forecasted President Trump's victory in 2016, writing in FiveThirtyEight two months before the last election that there is an "unusually high chance Donald Trump could win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote."
But now, Wasserman is making the case that Biden has a better chance of beating Trump in 2020 than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 for multiple reasons.
"First, Biden's lead is larger and much more stable than Clinton's was at this point. Second, there are far fewer undecided and third-party voters left to woo — reducing the chances of a late break toward one side," Wasserman wrote in NBC News Tuesday.
"And third, the scores of district and state-level polls conducted by the parties to make spending decisions in down-ballot races generally align with national polls showing Trump running behind his 2016 pace, including in key states."
I'm worried because he's clearly not anti-Trump.
Also, because his arguments are logical and thought-out.
And because he's the editor of a serious publication, not NBC, CNN or any other dime-a-dozen polling companies.
Wasserman was one of the few political commentators who correctly forecasted President Trump's victory in 2016, writing in FiveThirtyEight two months before the last election that there is an "unusually high chance Donald Trump could win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote."
But now, Wasserman is making the case that Biden has a better chance of beating Trump in 2020 than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 for multiple reasons.
"First, Biden's lead is larger and much more stable than Clinton's was at this point. Second, there are far fewer undecided and third-party voters left to woo — reducing the chances of a late break toward one side," Wasserman wrote in NBC News Tuesday.
"And third, the scores of district and state-level polls conducted by the parties to make spending decisions in down-ballot races generally align with national polls showing Trump running behind his 2016 pace, including in key states."
I'm worried because he's clearly not anti-Trump.
Also, because his arguments are logical and thought-out.
And because he's the editor of a serious publication, not NBC, CNN or any other dime-a-dozen polling companies.
32
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:20 am to conservativewifeymom
Just make sure you and your girlfriends get out and vote for Trump!
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:22 am to Eat Your Crow
No worries on that one!
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:23 am to conservativewifeymom
It’s a tough race.
And it’s going to be close.
And it’s going to be close.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:23 am to conservativewifeymom
Well Scott Adam's is predicting another W
So that should offset this guy
So that should offset this guy
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:24 am to conservativewifeymom
He’s basing this off of garbage polls that are insanely biased.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:25 am to conservativewifeymom
And there are multiple other people out there who have their "formulas" of predictions that say Trump will be elected.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:25 am to conservativewifeymom
quote:
"First, Biden's lead is larger and much more stable than Clinton's was at this point.
Based on what exactly? A poll in Wisconsin that has Biden up by 17?
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:26 am to conservativewifeymom
History lesson:
quote:
1. PRRI/Brookings Poll released on October 19: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 15 points
2. NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll released on October 10: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 14 points in a one-on-one contest and 11 points in a four way race
3. AP Poll released on October 26: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 14 points
4. Monmouth University Poll released on October 17: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12 points
5. ABC Poll released on October 23: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12 points
6. Atlantic/PRRI Poll released on October 9: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 11 points
7. Saint Leo University Poll released on October 26: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 11 points
8. USA Today/Suffolk University Poll released on October 27: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 10 points in a one-on-one race and by nine points in a four way race.
9. Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll released on October 6: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 10 points
10. SurveyUSA/Boston Globe Poll released on October 14: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 10 points
11. CBS Poll released on October 17: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points
12. Bloomberg Poll released on October 19: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points
13. CNBC Poll released on October 27: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:27 am to conservativewifeymom
The media is all in, therefore the pollsters are all in.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:27 am to conservativewifeymom
quote:
his arguments are logical and thought-out.
Yeah, we don't do that shite here? Didn't you see the 6 million people who went to see him in Florida? Obvious landslide!
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:28 am to The Maj
Yea when he cites that I have to doubt how serious he is. I need to see better indicators that Biden has a lead before I worry.
Almost all signs point to a trump victory, economic numbers, registration, early voting numbers, and down ballot races.
If the down ballot number looked bad I would worry
Almost all signs point to a trump victory, economic numbers, registration, early voting numbers, and down ballot races.
If the down ballot number looked bad I would worry
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:29 am to conservativewifeymom
The only factor that has me worried is: the Statist Left didn't think they needed to do much for Hillary to win. But for nearly four years they've shown they are willing to do ANYTHING to get rid of Trump.
We're dealing with truly motivated and scared thugs now. That's dangerous. This isn't normal civilization.
We're dealing with truly motivated and scared thugs now. That's dangerous. This isn't normal civilization.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:30 am to conservativewifeymom
Thank you for your worry...
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:30 am to conservativewifeymom
Your concern is noted...
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:31 am to conservativewifeymom
quote:
First, Biden's lead is larger and much more stable than Clinton's was at this point.
This is based on completely made up polls, so everything after is worthless.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:31 am to TigerFanatic99
quote:
Yeah, we don't do that shite here? Didn't you see the 6 million people who went to see him in Florida? Obvious landslide!
lol
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:32 am to conservativewifeymom
All of these so-called experts are trying to act like they have it all figured out, just like they did in 2016. Even though it's a different landscape, this is still an election in which TRUMP is on the ballot so all bets are off. TRUMP wins at least 320 EVs.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:36 am to conservativewifeymom
Maybe be has said it before and I missed it, but I heard Trump say yesterday that he thought Republicans would win the house. His polling must be pretty good for him to believe it happens.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:39 am to conservativewifeymom
my wifey (7 months pregnant) is getting out and voting for the Trumpster today! Along with Dan The Man Crenshaw and Wesley Hunt!
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