re: The Official Thread: Russia invades Ukraine

quote:

---

Gray Connolly
@GrayConnolly

As noted there are 3 different views of the RUS-UKR War:
- French @Armees_Gouv : RUS are making advances reflective of a campaign plan of annihilation
- UK MOD @DefenceHQ : RUS making advances against stubborn UKR resistance:
- US ISW @TheStudyofWar : RUS advance stalled

---

quote:

---

The British & French maps and assessments would be, I assume - I think correctly - put together by military/ministry staffs & these maps would be public versions of what goes up the chain of command.

What, by contrast, is the non-governmental US ISW analysis & map based on?

---

quote:

---

I did some digging and asked around, what is the basis for the more rosy & optimistic American view of the RUS-UKR war? Do the ISW get these anonymous "off the record" Pentagon briefings that one reads about here? And which are so at odds with the British and the French?

---

quote:

---

This is a classic of the Pentagonese genre - anonymous briefings by senior officials at odds with what the UK & esp the French are saying … the Pentagon press corps are nothing if not trusting/pliant even despite the past 20+ years …

---

quote:

---

So I looked at the latest
@TheStudyofWar analysis, thinking it would be fortified by solid sourcing for conclusions relied upon here by journalists & pundits ... and this is what I found in the footnotes .... the Ukrainian General Staff's Facebook page ...

---

quote:

---

Now, it may be @TheStudyofWar has a good reason for relying so heavily on, effectively, one of the combatant armies' social media feed ... the Ukrainians would be naturally tempted to engage in overstatement & propaganda ... which is why you as a serious analyst would avoid it

---

quote:

---

No one knows whether the Russian offensive plan or the Ukrainian defensive response is or is not 'on track'. War is unpredictable. You never show your vulnerabilities and you always want to project strength, not just for your adversary to be intimidated but for your own morale.

---

quote:

---

It is incumbent on those who analyse War, professionally, especially if you have served in War & are explaining War to a lay population, to base all you say on what can be verified by you. You owe it to to those who trust in you to do this. It is too serious to be another grift.

---

quote:

---

One lamentable aspects of the last 20+ years has been seeing how many retired military officers (Americans by far the worst here) will trade off their ranks & cash-in, in a manner so gauche & unbecoming as to disgust any sensible person. This war appeals to these worst incentives

---

quote:

---

If you remember the 2002-2003 run-up to the Iraq War - and the lies told then about non-existent WMDs being handed to terrorists etc - then this assertion, offered without any evidence in support, should give you the shudders.

---

quote:

---

Accordingly, always demand verification of any claims made. Do not accept anything you are being told at face value. Propaganda is now rife in this conflict, on all sides, and we each have a duty to discern the facts, see matters as they truly are, and form our own conclusions.

---

quote:

---

The best way that any of us can support our military alliances and the making of sensible policies is to demand, above all, that we know the truth, the whole truth, and, especially, the verified bases for any claims made that would, in turn, be causes for the making of War.

---

quote:

---

Angelo Giuliano
@Angelo4justice3
·
16m
To EU taxpayers :
British all-terrain vehicles supplied to Ukraine already on sale in Kiev region.

---

quote:

---

Russians With Attitude
@RWApodcast
·
5h
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs says that there were two prisoner exchanges today. They're not giving details, but there were reports about 5 Ukrainian soldiers being exchanged for 1 Russian in Sumy oblast - I don't know if that was part of the official ones or just local.

---