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The IHME Model just updated
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:29 pm
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:29 pm
For those who care, it now shows today as the peak and a total of 61,545 Deaths through August 4th.
14
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:32 pm to Chromdome35
Isn't that several days old?
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:32 pm to Chromdome35
So about 60K deaths over an about six month period. That sounds familiar.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:33 pm to Chromdome35
who was that guy on this board who predicted a 1800-2200 deaths/day peak and 50-70k total deaths a few weeks ago?
yes, I know this post has high "didnt age well" potential
yes, I know this post has high "didnt age well" potential
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:34 pm to David_DJS
quote:
So about 60K deaths over an about six month period. That sounds familiar.
Well, yeah, because we're shutting stuff down and social distancing now.
Duh.
/s
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:34 pm to ApexTiger
No, It's dated 4/10/20 now...they revised the death curve to show it peaking today. Previously it was peaking on the 12th.
This post was edited on 4/10/20 at 5:35 pm
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:34 pm to David_DJS
quote:
So about 60K deaths over an about six month period. That sounds familiar.
Stop calling this a flu!!!!!!!!!
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:34 pm to Chromdome35
Just looked at the model.
The model assumes full social distancing measures in place through the end of May to get these numbers.
The model assumes full social distancing measures in place through the end of May to get these numbers.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:38 pm to Redleg Guy
frick the models.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:44 pm to Possumslayer
quote:
frick the models.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:46 pm to Redleg Guy
quote:
Just looked at the model.
The model assumes full social distancing measures in place through the end of May to get these numbers.
They originally had that set to August 4th but moved it back to end of May. They are also assuming some pretty extreme measures of social distancing, the likes of which probably won't be tolerated in most areas (rightfully so).
This model has a number of shortcomings but they have tried to address some of them. I still think the model flattens the curve too fast and they are over estimating the effectiveness of social distancing. They also say that they don't consider a 2nd wave or rebound b/c they assume that controls will be maintained that will prevent that.
Ultimately, I think they are about right on predicting that we are moving into the peak. I think the flatten from the peak to "0" is going to be a lot longer than what they show. Hopefully, Trump's team is accounting for this and will point to the positive improvements that will happen in the coming weeks and won't get trapped into pinning opening things back up on a certain level of daily new cases/new deaths.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:47 pm to Chromdome35
It would be millions if we had done nothing!
If we go more extreme we can knock this down to like 30K now in exchange for way more than that dying of social and economic fall out down the road.
If we go more extreme we can knock this down to like 30K now in exchange for way more than that dying of social and economic fall out down the road.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:47 pm to Chromdome35
I thought today's presser said we have not peaked yet
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:54 pm to justsaygeaux2
4 1 2 6 5 3
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:57 pm to dakarx
quote:
4 1 2 6 5 3
The chick on the right's name is "Token". She (as a brunette on the Swedish Swimsuit Team) is like the black chick SI includes every year...
Posted on 4/10/20 at 7:38 pm to The Boat
quote:
Stop calling this a flu!!!!!!!!!
He is not, think he means the flu is worse, because in 6 months the flu will kill way more than 60K
The first 3 months of 2020 Jan 1 to March 31 here are different deaths around the world:
41,024- Deaths by Coronavirus
76,803- Deaths of mothers during birth
120,807- Deaths by seasonal flu
243,738- Deaths by Malaria
266,468- Deaths by suicides
335,438- Deaths by traffic fatalities
417,720- Death by HIV/Aids
621,504- Deaths by Alcohol
1.2 million- Deaths by smoking
2 million- Deaths by cancer
2.5 million- Deaths by hunger
So flu killed 80K more in the first 3 months
Dam, maybe we should close the economy next flu season
Maybe we should outlaw pregnancies (No more kids) too many mom's not making it
Maybe we should fix the malaria problem
I thought the cigarette pack says you die when you smoke. Why they allow selling it? Cigs worse than Corona, but Corona beats up on smokers
No more cars on the road! Car factories all need to close down forever. Yeah right!
HIV- Oh that is still here people and killed 10 x the people than Corona!!
Cancer- Dammit
People trying to politicize this go to hell, especially in Minnesota Health officials saying to officials to put the cause of death as Corona no matter what. Assholes! Shutting down the economy is not good. Let's kick the can down the road and have to fight this again and again.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 7:41 pm to Chromdome35
Mississippi going up
Posted on 4/10/20 at 7:44 pm to Chromdome35
Impossible. We were supposed to have 200k deaths as our “Pearl Harbor” by today I thought?
Posted on 4/10/20 at 7:46 pm to Dubaitiger
quote:In the United States a 60,000 death total from the Flu would be a really bad YEAR, and that’s after the CDC does their estimate which is often 3 TO 4 TIMES HIGHER than the confirmed flu fatalities.
because in 6 months the flu will kill way more than 60K
In other words, it’s been about 40 days since the first death, and we’re already well beyond the confirmed death totals (pre-CDC estimates) we would expect for an entire year (although it’s usually 8-10 month season.
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