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Message
Second quarter GDP forecast at 3.0%
Posted on 6/18/26 at 5:27 am
Posted on 6/18/26 at 5:27 am
Up from 1.6% first quarter.
Job numbers look strong.
Inflation will tick back down now.
Real wage growth will return after a couple month blip.
Its a if Bessent knew what he was talking about
Job numbers look strong.
Inflation will tick back down now.
Real wage growth will return after a couple month blip.
Its a if Bessent knew what he was talking about
6
Posted on 6/18/26 at 5:37 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
Inflation will tick back down now.
Just yesterday, nine of 19 Fed officials penciled in at least one rate increase by year’s end, up from none in March. Just one foresaw a cut, which was down from 12.
Posted on 6/18/26 at 5:39 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
Real wage growth will return after a couple month blip.
I’ll disagree. I think wages are staying put and will actually decrease when boomers start retiring. For many years my father preached balance and debt management etc.
We will never have the same wages again. The game has changed. You don’t need the same number of people to do pretty much any non manual job.
For instance HR is a complete overhead waste of money. AI can screen resumes etc.
This all said, prices should reflect wage decrease.
The rich get richer baws.
This post was edited on 6/18/26 at 5:45 am
Posted on 6/18/26 at 5:49 am to jizzle6609
quote:
The game has changed.
It’s depressing that this generation thinks they are the only ones to deal with a changing labor market.
Posted on 6/18/26 at 5:52 am to Pvt Hudson
quote:
It’s depressing that this generation thinks they are the only ones to deal with a changing labor market.
I doubt “this generation” (whatever you mean by that) thinks this. But the current labor market is in fact going through some changes that haven’t been seen in quite some time.
Posted on 6/18/26 at 5:55 am to jizzle6609
quote:
This all said, prices should reflect wage decrease.
This would be the natural course of things, but the opposite is happening.
I also wonder how much of this GDP is from all sides of data centers, which will create some interesting discussions. The amount of money being spent on data centers currently is unfathomable.
Posted on 6/18/26 at 5:55 am to jizzle6609
quote:
I think wages are staying put and will actually decrease when boomers start retiring.
Boomers are between ~80 and early 60s. Fair dinkum to say that some of the later cohorts were massive (notably 1957 to 1961), but a reasonable estimate of the total boomer population who have already retired as we sit here in June 2026 is about 75 to 80%.
And will accelerate into the 90 percentile range in just a couple of more years. Certainly by 2030 that number will be well into the 90s, IMHO.
(ETA: We are currently at a time where 11 to 12 thousand folks turn 65 EVERY DAY in the United States.)
This post was edited on 6/18/26 at 5:57 am
Posted on 6/18/26 at 6:00 am to Mo Jeaux
I don’t agree - my grandfather went through WW2 - a significant decrease in men available to work who were engaged in the war and never returned. Women became commonplace in the workforce and effectively doubled available labor.
My father lived through the shift of patriotism with unpopular wars in Vietnam and Korea, again a drain on men in the workforce, equality movements for minorities and the rise of affirmative action. Minimum wage requirements.
My generation went through Y2K - the rise of the machines and the dot com era when we were all going to be replaced by robots and the interwebs.
What challenges do you think you face that are unprecedented?
My father lived through the shift of patriotism with unpopular wars in Vietnam and Korea, again a drain on men in the workforce, equality movements for minorities and the rise of affirmative action. Minimum wage requirements.
My generation went through Y2K - the rise of the machines and the dot com era when we were all going to be replaced by robots and the interwebs.
What challenges do you think you face that are unprecedented?
Posted on 6/18/26 at 6:08 am to Mo Jeaux
quote:
But the current labor market is in fact going through some changes that haven’t been seen in quite some time.
True.
It can't figure out what to do with all of the trans lesbian dance and grind applications.
Posted on 6/18/26 at 6:14 am to Pvt Hudson
quote:
What challenges do you think you face that are unprecedented?
I didn’t say anything about me personally. I also didn’t say unprecedented. Are you just wanting to bitch about Gen Z or something?
Posted on 6/18/26 at 6:20 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
Inflation will tick back down now.
quote:
Real wage growth will return
Thank you, prophet.
Posted on 6/18/26 at 6:37 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
Real wage growth will return after a couple month blip.
I disagree. As companies start increasing reliance on AI tools, they will need less people. The more people that need jobs will keep wages down and with less people to pay, profit increases. My company has had a standard raise of 3% since I started in 2010. They have made a couple market adjustments, but nothing significant. This year they slashed bonuses across the board to 80%. I expect even less next year. My company is a large one that sells pharma and OTC products globally.
My wife is a veterinarian small business owner and people just dont have the money to spend on their pets. It has been that way for at least 3 yrs. All the while corporations are gobbling up vet practices. I think it only gets worse for the middle class as costs continue to outpace wages.
Posted on 6/18/26 at 7:09 am to jizzle6609
quote:
We will never have the same wages again. The game has changed. You don’t need the same number of people to do pretty much any non manual job.
Do you think you are the only group to ever live through a changing job market, inflation and an unpredictable economy?
The 70's gas lines/inflation and the great depression.... just a couple fun times in our history...say howdy, you big, whining, crybaby.
Figure out where the money will be flowing and go in that direction. There is ALWAYS opportunity to strike while the iron is hot.
Or, just continue sit there and cry and hope somebody does it for you....
Posted on 6/18/26 at 7:12 am to jizzle6609
quote:
The game has changed. You don’t need the same number of people to do pretty much any non manual job.
That is a constant state. My dad at 85 was alive when most farm work was done manually and tractors were a luxury for the "big" operations. Hell, he remembers his cousins' farm getting electricity.
The game is constantly changing, sometimes it is an evolutionary change and sometimes a revolutionary change - but it is always changing.
Posted on 6/18/26 at 7:13 am to trinidadtiger
Once warsh rallies the troops and starts showing them real inflation data the cuts will start and we will take off like a rocketship
Posted on 6/18/26 at 7:15 am to SDVTiger
quote:
Once warsh rallies the troops and starts showing them real inflation data
He didn’t show them yesterday?
Posted on 6/18/26 at 7:18 am to Mo Jeaux
Who knows but hes the one talking about it. Which is a great sign vs the JPow who said inflation was transitory when he should have been hiking
Could you imagine being an idiot who would want to hike rates right now
Could you imagine being an idiot who would want to hike rates right now
Posted on 6/18/26 at 7:42 am to Mo Jeaux
quote:Inflationary forces are right around the corner?
Just yesterday, nine of 19 Fed officials penciled in at least one rate increase by year’s end, up from none in March. Just one foresaw a cut, which was down from 12.
Posted on 6/18/26 at 8:00 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
Inflation will tick back down now.
Not as long as Congress is still blowing deficit spending over $1T each year.
Posted on 6/18/26 at 8:03 am to jizzle6609
quote:
I think wages are staying put and will actually decrease when boomers start retiring.
Start retiring? Boomers have been retiring for a long time now. The Boomer generation is about 40% extinct now. the last of the Boomers are 62 years old and soon all Boomers will be retired or dead. Retirement and death rate has been 10,000/day, every day for the last 14 or 15 years.
It's time people get Boomers out of the equation for the future other than Geritol and Ensure sales.
quote:
Millennials, born between 1981 and 1996, are currently the largest generation in the United States. As of 2024 and 2025 estimates, this cohort comprises approximately 22% of the U.S. population, or roughly 74 million people, having surpassed the Baby Boomer generation in 2019.
Population Share: Millennials hold the largest share at 22%, followed closely by Generation Z at 21% (approx. 71 million) and Baby Boomers at 19% (approx. 64 million).
Image below is as of today.
https://incendar.com/baby_boomer_deathclock.php
This post was edited on 6/18/26 at 8:04 am
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