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trinidadtiger
Member since Jun 2017
3714 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
Inverted yield curve has forecast most recessions since the 70s. You know what has NEVER happened since the 70s, NEGATIVE interest rates in major industrialized countries. Ya think just maybe this might have some impact on yields in the overall bond markets. We also have far more cash free flowing than any point in history by far.


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41
BobBoucher
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2008
9552 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

didn't think it was that long. Do y'all know the average time from inversion to recession, 22 months since the 1978. This is noise.


And what drives the yield? Is not not demand?

Isn’t this kinda like the Vegas line moving prior to the big game due to betting activity?

If not - I digress and disregard.

If so - just like Vegas - people are taking their best guess at what’s going to happen based on Trumps trade war. They have never seen this before and have no fricking idea.
This post was edited on 8/14 at 8:45 am


Janky
LSU Fan
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
26617 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:


And what drives the yield? Is not not demand?


Yes

quote:

Isn’t this kinda like the Vegas line moving prior to the big game due to betting activity?


So, a 20 minute inversion is gonna cause a huge recession? I just think at this point it is not a big deal. According to the stats I linked that is the case.

quote:

people are taking their best guess at what’s going to happen based on Trumps trade war.


I think it is more about slowing global growth than a trade war. Just my opinion.


The Pirate King
Texas Tech Fan
Pangu
Member since May 2014
30406 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
Thanks to the dumbass fear mongering about a coming recession, the Dow tanked 400 points this morning.

Dems get their wishes


BuckyCheese
Wisconsin Fan
Member since Jan 2015
4145 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
The market is so reactionary it's ridiculous.

fricking day traders.


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30
BBONDS25
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2008
35975 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

Lol. Yeah, I have a $2M portfolio in my early 40s. I think my financial literacy is fine, thanks.


you need about 6 more to retire. You are behind. Get more financially literate, or enjoy the next 20 years working.


Zach
LSU Fan
Member since May 2005
94929 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
Thanks for the heads up. I'm gonna sell all my stocks and buy gold. Then I'm gonna call that Mormon company and buy a year's worth of food.


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41
link
Member since Feb 2009
19353 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

Lol. Yeah, I have a $2M portfolio in my early 40s. I think my financial literacy is fine, thanks.



LOLOL sh-sh-should the guy in the $4500 suit take advice from the guy in the $200 suit COME ON


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40
LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
115851 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

the yield curve inverted briefly as early as December 27, 2005, about two years before the financial crisis sent the economy into recession.
So the yield curve knew all about those fraudulent housing loans in our economy two years before anyone else did?

That's amazing!!


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43
Boatshoes
Member since Dec 2017
4524 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
All of you who are complacent about 2020...a recession plus the banning of private firearms sales through expanded background checks plus red flag laws plus a possible semi auto / high cap mag ban if the turtle gives the Dems what they want.

Still feeling complacent?


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23
TD SponsorTD Fan
USA
Member since 2001
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stout
Arizona Fan
Back in God's Country
Member since Sep 2006
139744 posts
 Online 

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

We’ve been kicking this can down the road long before he showed up.


Yep. We have kept rates artificially low for too long.


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11
NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
93573 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

you need about 6 more to retire. You are behind.
But he can make it up quickly on the recession call. Just needs to grab some triple-leveraged inverse/short ETFs in a hurry, before the recession hits.


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22
yatesdog38
Mississippi St. Fan
in your head rent free
Member since Sep 2013
6975 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
bond markets are typically leading indicators. Equity markets typically lagging.


bmy
East Carolina Fan
Nashville
Member since Oct 2007
46091 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

Due to uniparty obstruction or fake investigations that have eroded trust in the government? That will, in fact ruin an economy.



Build that narrative

We are due.


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Janky
LSU Fan
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
26617 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
and?


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Jjdoc
Columbia Fan
Cali
Member since Mar 2016
23467 posts
 Online 

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
Recessions happen often


LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
115851 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

bond markets are typically leading indicators.
True.
quote:

Equity markets typically lagging.


Not so much.

The low point in the U.S. stock market during the Great Recession was in early March, 2009. March 6, to be exact.

The recession was in full swing then. The stock market started going up after that in anticipation of the recession ending later in 2009, which it did.


AlexLSU
Houston Astros Fan
Member since Jan 2005
25322 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

It'll suck for single family homes since there will be more competition, but hey can't have an omelette w/o breaking a few eggs


Could be a good reason for people to hang onto their SFH and rent it out. I feel like only savvy RE investors actually scoop up deals during recessions. If average joes don’t buy RE during good economic times, I think it’s unlikely they do so when the market is shaky. Overall I’d imagine the buyer pool shrinks and the renter pool increases while people wait out the dip/recession


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Roll Tide Ravens
Alabama Fan
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
8475 posts
 Online 

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
If a Democrat wins and we start forcing loans to sub-prime borrowers, we probably will have a recession.


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yatesdog38
Mississippi St. Fan
in your head rent free
Member since Sep 2013
6975 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
it started going up after it had been flooded with free money and the banks had been bailed out and the announcement of BABs. That isn't a fair comparison at all. There was nothing leading about that.


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