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re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
Posted on 8/14/19 at 8:36 am to Janky
Posted on 8/14/19 at 8:36 am to Janky
Inverted yield curve has forecast most recessions since the 70s. You know what has NEVER happened since the 70s, NEGATIVE interest rates in major industrialized countries. Ya think just maybe this might have some impact on yields in the overall bond markets. We also have far more cash free flowing than any point in history by far.
0
Posted on 8/14/19 at 8:43 am to Janky
quote:
didn't think it was that long. Do y'all know the average time from inversion to recession, 22 months since the 1978. This is noise.
And what drives the yield? Is not not demand?
Isn’t this kinda like the Vegas line moving prior to the big game due to betting activity?
If not - I digress and disregard.
If so - just like Vegas - people are taking their best guess at what’s going to happen based on Trumps trade war. They have never seen this before and have no fricking idea.
This post was edited on 8/14/19 at 8:45 am
Posted on 8/14/19 at 8:58 am to BobBoucher
quote:
And what drives the yield? Is not not demand?
Yes
quote:
Isn’t this kinda like the Vegas line moving prior to the big game due to betting activity?
So, a 20 minute inversion is gonna cause a huge recession? I just think at this point it is not a big deal. According to the stats I linked that is the case.
quote:
people are taking their best guess at what’s going to happen based on Trumps trade war.
I think it is more about slowing global growth than a trade war. Just my opinion.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 9:02 am to Janky
Thanks to the dumbass fear mongering about a coming recession, the Dow tanked 400 points this morning.
Dems get their wishes
Dems get their wishes
Posted on 8/14/19 at 9:05 am to The Pirate King
The market is so reactionary it's ridiculous.
fricking day traders.
fricking day traders.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 9:13 am to Desert King
quote:
Lol. Yeah, I have a $2M portfolio in my early 40s. I think my financial literacy is fine, thanks.
you need about 6 more to retire. You are behind. Get more financially literate, or enjoy the next 20 years working. 
Posted on 8/14/19 at 9:20 am to Desert King
Thanks for the heads up. I'm gonna sell all my stocks and buy gold. Then I'm gonna call that Mormon company and buy a year's worth of food.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 9:23 am to Desert King
quote:
Lol. Yeah, I have a $2M portfolio in my early 40s. I think my financial literacy is fine, thanks.
LOLOL sh-sh-should the guy in the $4500 suit take advice from the guy in the $200 suit COME ON
Posted on 8/14/19 at 9:25 am to Desert King
quote:So the yield curve knew all about those fraudulent housing loans in our economy two years before anyone else did?
the yield curve inverted briefly as early as December 27, 2005, about two years before the financial crisis sent the economy into recession.
That's amazing!!
Posted on 8/14/19 at 9:25 am to Desert King
All of you who are complacent about 2020...a recession plus the banning of private firearms sales through expanded background checks plus red flag laws plus a possible semi auto / high cap mag ban if the turtle gives the Dems what they want.
Still feeling complacent?
Still feeling complacent?
Posted on 8/14/19 at 9:26 am to Desert King
quote:
We’ve been kicking this can down the road long before he showed up.
Yep. We have kept rates artificially low for too long.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 9:27 am to BBONDS25
quote:But he can make it up quickly on the recession call. Just needs to grab some triple-leveraged inverse/short ETFs in a hurry, before the recession hits.
you need about 6 more to retire. You are behind.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 9:30 am to Janky
bond markets are typically leading indicators. Equity markets typically lagging.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 9:32 am to dstone12
quote:
Due to uniparty obstruction or fake investigations that have eroded trust in the government? That will, in fact ruin an economy.
Build that narrative
We are due.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 9:33 am to yatesdog38
and?
Posted on 8/14/19 at 9:34 am to Desert King
Recessions happen often
Posted on 8/14/19 at 9:40 am to yatesdog38
quote:True.
bond markets are typically leading indicators.
quote:Not so much.
Equity markets typically lagging.
The low point in the U.S. stock market during the Great Recession was in early March, 2009. March 6, to be exact.
The recession was in full swing then. The stock market started going up after that in anticipation of the recession ending later in 2009, which it did.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 9:44 am to Auslander
quote:
It'll suck for single family homes since there will be more competition, but hey can't have an omelette w/o breaking a few eggs
Could be a good reason for people to hang onto their SFH and rent it out. I feel like only savvy RE investors actually scoop up deals during recessions. If average joes don’t buy RE during good economic times, I think it’s unlikely they do so when the market is shaky. Overall I’d imagine the buyer pool shrinks and the renter pool increases while people wait out the dip/recession
Posted on 8/14/19 at 9:58 am to Desert King
If a Democrat wins and we start forcing loans to sub-prime borrowers, we probably will have a recession.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 10:09 am to LSURussian
it started going up after it had been flooded with free money and the banks had been bailed out and the announcement of BABs. That isn't a fair comparison at all. There was nothing leading about that.
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