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re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
Posted on 8/14/19 at 2:54 pm to yatesdog38
Posted on 8/14/19 at 2:54 pm to yatesdog38
Consumer debt is high - still lower than pre-2008.
Student Loan debt high - won't put us in a recession
Buybacks are inflating EPS - to a degree, but even before Aug 1st stocks were price at "fair value" compare to historical EPS over the last 20 years. Today they are cheaper.
One more point about buybacks when factoring in the historically low IPOs. The supply of total shares in the market is at all-time low, therefore I don't see a collapse in equities like 2008.
Buy on the dips like Dec '18 & May '19 or dollar-cost average.
Student Loan debt high - won't put us in a recession
Buybacks are inflating EPS - to a degree, but even before Aug 1st stocks were price at "fair value" compare to historical EPS over the last 20 years. Today they are cheaper.
One more point about buybacks when factoring in the historically low IPOs. The supply of total shares in the market is at all-time low, therefore I don't see a collapse in equities like 2008.
Buy on the dips like Dec '18 & May '19 or dollar-cost average.
This post was edited on 8/14/19 at 2:58 pm
1
Posted on 8/14/19 at 2:56 pm to LSUBanker
quote:Another point about equities - with 10 year rates almost down to 1.5%, what is a "fair value" P/E yield? If you told me it was 4% (i.e. ~2.5X bonds), then that would imply that 25:1 was pretty fair. I'm not saying to count on rates always being this low, but it's just hard to see them going much higher for the foreseeable future.
but even before Aug 1st stocks were price at "fair value" compare to historical EPS over the last 20 years. Today they are cheaper.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 2:56 pm to Desert King
:ohnoz:
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