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LSUBanker
LSU Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Sep 2003
1821 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

When there's blood in the streets, buy Real Estate


That's true to a certain degree, but the real estate market is not the bubble to burst this time and won't be as wide spread as 2008. It's corporate debt levels. I see a lot of defaults on extended credit coming within a few years.


GRTiger
USA Fan
On a roof eating alligator pie
Member since Dec 2008
48506 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
Can you discuss the impact of an inversion as an indicator to recession as determined by 10 year treasury yields? In other words, is it more ominous when the inversion occurs when yields are high?

I read that the last several inversions occurred when 10 year treasury yields were over 6% on average. At this point, they are closer to 2%. Just curious if that makes a difference.


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QboveTopSecret
Army Fan
America
Member since Feb 2018
1063 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005




Trump Election = Rothchild Recession


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udtiger
LSU Fan
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2006
58151 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
bull shite.

there was an inverted yield curve earlier this summer.


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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
115851 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

There was nothing leading about that.
Do you mean except for the recession ending about 3 months later??


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deltaland
Mississippi St. Fan
Member since Mar 2011
50516 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
Dow down 750 now. This is bad. Real bad. We could be staring down the barrel of a 2008 level crash beginning


Big Scrub TX
LSU Fan
Austin
Member since Dec 2013
19117 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

fricking love it; that means RE is about to tank and it's gonna be a buyer's paradise.
Good luck with all that given where rates are presently.

quote:

Can usually get multifamly buildings on the cheap bc of competition and Class B/C being outweighed by new units in the market.


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Big Scrub TX
LSU Fan
Austin
Member since Dec 2013
19117 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

It's corporate debt levels
Nah. Don't fall for Yellen's bull shite on this. Maybe some pain in HY and maybe some ratings migration from IG to Xover.


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03
The Pirate King
Texas Tech Fan
Pangu
Member since May 2014
30406 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

Dow down 750 now. This is bad. Real bad. We could be staring down the barrel of a 2008 level crash beginning


Lol


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20
LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
115851 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

Dow down 750 now. This is bad. Real bad. We could be staring down the barrel of a 2008 level crash beginning




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30
TD SponsorTD Fan
USA
Member since 2001
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TejasHorn
Texas Fan
High Plains Driftin'
Member since Mar 2007
7045 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
Even a recession will be fake news around here.

You can't drag a trade war out and expect no repercussions. It's not "winning" to try and tank other countries' economies. We're all in the same boat, economically these days.
This post was edited on 8/14 at 1:28 pm


zeebo
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2008
3964 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
Means nothing


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11
CharlesLSU
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2007
24573 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
Yeah but this goes against the winning narrative so downvotes for you!

All the winning!


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13
CharlesLSU
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2007
24573 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
But the minions don’t like hearing reality....downvote to you!!!!


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13
Scruffy
USA Fan
Member since Jul 2011
57893 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

On Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dipped below the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury as the 10-year fell 1 basis point below the 2-year. The yield curve inversion has a strong track record of predicting a recession; each of the last seven recessions (dating back to 1969) were preceded by the 10-year falling below the 2-year.

Ahead of the last recession, the yield curve inverted briefly as early as December 27, 2005, about two years before the financial crisis sent the economy into recession.
How often does it fall with no recession occurring?


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cajuncarguy
On the road...Again!
Member since Jun 2013
2061 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
False. Money flowing in from Europe and Asia because of negative interest rates there. Flight to safety. They are buying Treasuries, especially 10 yr bonds, thus driving the price up and yields down. The economy and the fundamentals are a lot stronger than previous times and the underlying causes are completely different. A great buying opportunity.


The Pirate King
Texas Tech Fan
Pangu
Member since May 2014
30406 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

Even a recession will be fake news around here.


We’re not in a recession yet, and thanks to the fear mongering by the people writing these articles, the tools on Wall Street have tanked the market today.

Congrats


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22
AlceeFortier
Member since Dec 2016
1674 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
orange man as dangerous as aoc, bernie and warren. plus, he is bigger liar.


Janky
LSU Fan
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
26617 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:


orange man as dangerous as aoc, bernie and warren. plus, he is bigger liar.


What a well thought out and lucid point. I am glad you folks finally woke up and came join us.
This post was edited on 8/14 at 2:43 pm


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yatesdog38
Mississippi St. Fan
in your head rent free
Member since Sep 2013
6975 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
Consumer debt is high, student loan debt is at all time high and corporate buybacks are inflating EPS.

as a whole fundamentals are still pretty strong but tread lightly. 3rd quarter projections aren't great... buy buy buy! always buy. don't stop buyliving


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