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Desert King
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2018
275 posts

Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
On Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dipped below the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury as the 10-year fell 1 basis point below the 2-year. The yield curve inversion has a strong track record of predicting a recession; each of the last seven recessions (dating back to 1969) were preceded by the 10-year falling below the 2-year.

Ahead of the last recession, the yield curve inverted briefly as early as December 27, 2005, about two years before the financial crisis sent the economy into recession.


Meauxjeaux
Memphis Fan
97127 posts including my alters
Member since Jun 2005
25939 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

two years


So we’ll get a little dip right after the second inauguration and be pulling out well in advance of Trump! 2.0 in 2024.

I’ll allow it gif.
This post was edited on 8/14 at 6:15 am


TrueTiger
LSU Fan
Chicken's most valuable
Member since Sep 2004
37054 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
why the hell wasn't it flashing in 2008?


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774
iron banks
LSU Fan
Destrehan
Member since Jul 2014
2109 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
Orange man bad Did I do it right.


Mid Iowa Tiger
Iowa State Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2008
5595 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

about two years before the financial crisis sent the economy into recession.



That recession had to do with lending fundamentals or actually lack there of more than macroeconomic conditions.


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125
gthog61
Georgia Tech Fan
Irving, TX
Member since Nov 2009
45237 posts
 Online 

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

The yield curve inversion has a strong track record of predicting a recession; each of the last seven recessions (dating back to 1969) were preceded by the 10-year falling below the 2-year.


How many times was it a false signal?

seems like an important fact to leave out


TaderSalad
LSU Fan
mudbug territory
Member since Jul 2014
15189 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
fear mongering at it's best.


nothing else has stuck... let's tank the economy cuz orange man bad.


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256
udtiger
LSU Fan
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2006
57980 posts
 Online 

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
Wishcasting


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82
TigerDeBaiter
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2010
7666 posts
 Online 

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005


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52
TigerB8
New Orleans Saints Fan
Marietta, GA
Member since Oct 2003
5480 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
Im old enough to remember 2007/2008/2009!


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BestBanker
New Orleans Saints Fan
Around here.
Member since Nov 2011
10733 posts
 Online 

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
Tell us the story of what happened after the recessions? Tell us! Tell us! Pleaz! Pleaz!


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32
dstone12
East Carolina Fan
Member since Jan 2007
8108 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
Due to uniparty obstruction or fake investigations that have eroded trust in the government? That will, in fact ruin an economy.

Maher wants this.
Prog filth wants it.
Uniparty wants it.

“It” is getting trump out at all costs.


saints5021
USA Fan
Slidell
Member since Jul 2010
6261 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
2 years is after Orange Man is re elected...sorry libs, you still won't get him.


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80
Desert King
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2018
275 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
Jesus Christ.

Some of you are so defensive of Trump that it’s like a personal insult on your mother if anything less than Polly-fricking-anna is posted.

News flash: A possible recession would have very little to do with Donald Trump. We’ve been kicking this can down the road long before he showed up. The yield inversion news is concerning, so I posted it. That’s it. Get a grip!


TimeOutdoors
Mississippi St. Fan
Depends on the day
Member since Sep 2014
4394 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
It was inverted for maybe 30 minutes, lol. Financially illiterate people truly have no hope in today’s society.


Janky
LSU Fan
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
26488 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

It was inverted for maybe 30 minutes,


I didn't think it was that long. Do y'all know the average time from inversion to recession, 22 months since the 1978. This is noise.

quote:

Data from Credit Suisse going back to 1978 shows:

The last five 2-10 inversions have eventually led to recessions.

A recession occurs, on average, 22 months following a 2-10 inversion.

The S&P 500 is up, on average, 12% one year after a 2-10 inversion.

It’s not until about 18 months after an inversion when the stock market usually turns and posts negative returns.


Food for thought
This post was edited on 8/14 at 8:25 am


Northwestern tiger
Minnesota Fan
Minneapolis
Member since Oct 2005
20552 posts
 Online 

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

How many times was it a false signal?

seems like an important fact to leave out



Only ONCE, it was a false flag

I read it somewhere this morning .


Desert King
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2018
275 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

Financially illiterate people truly have no hope in today’s society


Lol. Yeah, I have a $2M portfolio in my early 40s. I think my financial literacy is fine, thanks.


Janky
LSU Fan
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
26488 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
quote:

I have a $2M portfolio in my early 40s


All that work to post this.


Auslander
The Bywater
Member since Jun 2019
183 posts

re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
fricking love it; that means RE is about to tank and it's gonna be a buyer's paradise.

Can usually get multifamly buildings on the cheap bc of competition and Class B/C being outweighed by new units in the market.

It'll suck for single family homes since there will be more competition, but hey can't have an omelette w/o breaking a few eggs


When there's blood in the streets, buy Real Estate


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