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Started By
Message
Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
Posted on 8/14/19 at 6:08 am
Posted on 8/14/19 at 6:08 am
On Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dipped below the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury as the 10-year fell 1 basis point below the 2-year. The yield curve inversion has a strong track record of predicting a recession; each of the last seven recessions (dating back to 1969) were preceded by the 10-year falling below the 2-year.
Ahead of the last recession, the yield curve inverted briefly as early as December 27, 2005, about two years before the financial crisis sent the economy into recession.
Ahead of the last recession, the yield curve inverted briefly as early as December 27, 2005, about two years before the financial crisis sent the economy into recession.
26
Posted on 8/14/19 at 6:14 am to Desert King
quote:
two years
So we’ll get a little dip right after the second inauguration and be pulling out well in advance of Trump! 2.0 in 2024.
I’ll allow it gif.
This post was edited on 8/14/19 at 6:15 am
Posted on 8/14/19 at 6:14 am to Desert King
why the hell wasn't it flashing in 2008?
Posted on 8/14/19 at 6:15 am to Meauxjeaux
Orange man bad 
Did I do it right.
Did I do it right.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 6:17 am to Desert King
quote:
about two years before the financial crisis sent the economy into recession.
That recession had to do with lending fundamentals or actually lack there of more than macroeconomic conditions.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 6:20 am to Desert King
quote:
The yield curve inversion has a strong track record of predicting a recession; each of the last seven recessions (dating back to 1969) were preceded by the 10-year falling below the 2-year.
How many times was it a false signal?
seems like an important fact to leave out
Posted on 8/14/19 at 6:21 am to Desert King
fear mongering at it's best.
nothing else has stuck... let's tank the economy cuz orange man bad.
nothing else has stuck... let's tank the economy cuz orange man bad.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 6:21 am to Desert King
Wishcasting
Posted on 8/14/19 at 7:03 am to Desert King
Posted on 8/14/19 at 7:06 am to Desert King
Im old enough to remember 2007/2008/2009!
Posted on 8/14/19 at 7:06 am to Desert King
Tell us the story of what happened after the recessions? Tell us! Tell us! Pleaz! Pleaz!
Posted on 8/14/19 at 7:09 am to Desert King
Due to uniparty obstruction or fake investigations that have eroded trust in the government? That will, in fact ruin an economy.
Maher wants this.
Prog filth wants it.
Uniparty wants it.
“It” is getting trump out at all costs.
Maher wants this.
Prog filth wants it.
Uniparty wants it.
“It” is getting trump out at all costs.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 7:55 am to dstone12
2 years is after Orange Man is re elected...sorry libs, you still won't get him.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 8:09 am to Desert King
Jesus Christ.
Some of you are so defensive of Trump that it’s like a personal insult on your mother if anything less than Polly-fricking-anna is posted.
News flash: A possible recession would have very little to do with Donald Trump. We’ve been kicking this can down the road long before he showed up. The yield inversion news is concerning, so I posted it. That’s it. Get a grip!
Some of you are so defensive of Trump that it’s like a personal insult on your mother if anything less than Polly-fricking-anna is posted.
News flash: A possible recession would have very little to do with Donald Trump. We’ve been kicking this can down the road long before he showed up. The yield inversion news is concerning, so I posted it. That’s it. Get a grip!
Posted on 8/14/19 at 8:14 am to Desert King
It was inverted for maybe 30 minutes, lol. Financially illiterate people truly have no hope in today’s society.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 8:19 am to TimeOutdoors
quote:
It was inverted for maybe 30 minutes,
I didn't think it was that long. Do y'all know the average time from inversion to recession, 22 months since the 1978. This is noise.
quote:
Data from Credit Suisse going back to 1978 shows:
The last five 2-10 inversions have eventually led to recessions.
A recession occurs, on average, 22 months following a 2-10 inversion.
The S&P 500 is up, on average, 12% one year after a 2-10 inversion.
It’s not until about 18 months after an inversion when the stock market usually turns and posts negative returns.
Food for thought
This post was edited on 8/14/19 at 8:25 am
Posted on 8/14/19 at 8:21 am to gthog61
quote:
How many times was it a false signal?
seems like an important fact to leave out
Only ONCE, it was a false flag
I read it somewhere this morning .
Posted on 8/14/19 at 8:26 am to TimeOutdoors
quote:
Financially illiterate people truly have no hope in today’s society
Lol. Yeah, I have a $2M portfolio in my early 40s. I think my financial literacy is fine, thanks.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 8:27 am to Desert King
quote:
I have a $2M portfolio in my early 40s
All that work to post this.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 8:36 am to Janky
Inverted yield curve has forecast most recessions since the 70s. You know what has NEVER happened since the 70s, NEGATIVE interest rates in major industrialized countries. Ya think just maybe this might have some impact on yields in the overall bond markets. We also have far more cash free flowing than any point in history by far.
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