re: Prediction: By August 31, Kamala will be leading in the polls

I don't doubt it - They aren't going to let Trump win.

Unfortunately now we have a true marxist in Kamala - When she wins it's going to get much much worse.

Trump +15--20.

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I would add that a head-to-head poll of Trump and Harris, or any Democrat, isn't the correct way to look at the race either. We know there will be 5 candidates. Trump, the Dem, RFK Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein.

The 3 minor candidates all will pull votes with RFK getting the most. The two 5-way polls, including one last week before the convenion, has Trump +5 on Harris.

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There is some disagreement amongst pollsters on this.

The reality is that third party candidates generally poll well above what they do in the election (with only Perot being an outlier). The reality is there are a significant number of voters who respond to polls saying they'll go 3rd party, but when it comes to election day they either don't show up or vote for the "lesser of 2 evils" from the major parties.

For example, according to 270 to win the final 2020 polls had Biden at 51%, Trump at 43% and other candidates getting 6%.

But on election day, Biden got 51%, Trump got 46% and the third party candidates only got 3%.

Probably the best projection is to poll both with and without the 3rd party candidates, but divide their polled support in half and assign it based on how the votes went between the 2-candidate and all-candidate polls changed.

If you go into more detail, most of the votes the 3rd party candidates get end up being in states that aren't in play. It's easier to vote 3rd party if you know that your state will go Red or Blue ahead of time.

If you look at the last election, none of the states that were within 3-points either direction had more than 1.5% of the state vote go to third party candidates. The closest states with more that 1.5% going third party were Alaska (+10 to the GOP) and New Hampshire (+7 to the Democrats).

You do realize that in those positions as DA & AG she had zero actual qualifications and as those titles allowed to do no actual trial work

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1 - She has her VP selection.

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I'm sure it will be someone equally as unpopular and incompetent. Mayor Pete?

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Correct. Kamala is going to wipe the floor with Trump

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BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAH

you are the same pussy who gave up on trump last time huh? and made yourself look stupid. I wish i had still bookmarked that thread. the admins locked it it was so bad.


you are emotional like a woman

I don’t think so. The more she is on the stump, the more people will see what a horrible person she is.

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Interesting how you describe her potential Presidential “talent”

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I don't think I expressed a view on her talent.

In general I think the people who make the best presidents follow a similar path to what makes the best college football coaches.

It's mostly about recruiting talent and hiring great staff. Actual personal "ability" means very little.

The US works best when a President surrounds himself with extremely talented people and instead of driving things just makes the "go/no go" calls.

I think Nixon for example was one of the smartest and most competent men we ever had as a US president. But he surrounded himself with a lot of criminals and yes men. The talented men he had around him he often ignored (except for Kissinger) or fired. Like when he fired AG Elliot Richardson and deputy AG William Rucklehaus because they refused to fire the special prosecutor investigating Watergate... in order to get to a "yes man" in Robert Bork who would do what he wanted.

I wonder if the Dem voting 18-24yo’s will remember this quote on TV by heels:

“What else do we know about this population, 18 through 24? They are stupid. That is why we put them in dormitories. And they have a resident assistant. They make really bad decisions.”