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DawginSC
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It was top 6 originally. Went to top 5 when Pac 12 disappeared.
The thought was that it would be SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC and one lesser conference each year.
But the ACC and Big 12 aren't very good so we'll also have some years like this mixed in.
The thought was that it would be SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC and one lesser conference each year.
But the ACC and Big 12 aren't very good so we'll also have some years like this mixed in.
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re: Boring final 4 prediction
Posted by DawginSC on 12/7/25 at 11:55 am to TriStateAreaFootball
quote:
It must've grinded your gears to watch a team with a bad "composite talent ranking" win the Big 10 last night.
Any team can win an individual game.
Winning several in a row against top opponents requires a certain depth of talent.
It's like in the NCAA basketball tournaments. Double digit teams win in the first weekend... but by the time you hit the final four it's usually all big name teams with high rankings.
Last year it was #3, #4, #9 and #11 in the final 4.
So I won't be shocked if A&M (composite #8), OU (composite #14) or Miami (composite #15) make the final 4. I'll be surprised if anyone else does.
A&M/Miami have the toughest draw. OSU has the toughest slate of the teams with byes.
Boring final 4 prediction
Posted by DawginSC on 12/7/25 at 11:49 am
5 - Oregon vs 9 - Bama
3 - UGA vs 2 OSU
Or more accurately, using the 247 composite talent rankings:
Oregon (5th) vs Bama (2nd)
UGA (1st) vs OSU (3rd)
3 - UGA vs 2 OSU
Or more accurately, using the 247 composite talent rankings:
Oregon (5th) vs Bama (2nd)
UGA (1st) vs OSU (3rd)
Teams that have made the 12 team playoff both years...
Posted by DawginSC on 12/7/25 at 11:43 am
Ohio State
Indiana
Oregon
UGA
I'll be honest... that list is surprising to me. Before last season I would have guessed more than 4 teams and only would have picked OSU and UGA from the list of those that did it (though Oregon isn't too surprising)
Indiana
Oregon
UGA
I'll be honest... that list is surprising to me. Before last season I would have guessed more than 4 teams and only would have picked OSU and UGA from the list of those that did it (though Oregon isn't too surprising)
Top 5 rated conference champs are in.
If JMU isn't in, than an 8-5 Duke is.
I'd prefer 11-1 JMU.
If JMU isn't in, than an 8-5 Duke is.
I'd prefer 11-1 JMU.
re: Playoff is stupid this year. UGA v. Indiana for the title
Posted by DawginSC on 12/7/25 at 8:44 am to Demosthenian
UGA does well against plucky teams with good records but poor talent, so I'd like UGA in a matchup like that.
Was true when we played TCU a few years back and an undefeated Hawaii some years before that.
But we'll have to get through a 3 game test with most of the games against teams with a high amount of talent, so we'll have to earn it.
If anything, I think we're kind of in a worse situation NOT being on Indiana's side of the bracket. I have a feeling it will be UGA and OSU on one side and Indiana and Texas Tech on the other... and I think OSU is a much harder draw than Indiana or TT for UGA.
Was true when we played TCU a few years back and an undefeated Hawaii some years before that.
But we'll have to get through a 3 game test with most of the games against teams with a high amount of talent, so we'll have to earn it.
If anything, I think we're kind of in a worse situation NOT being on Indiana's side of the bracket. I have a feeling it will be UGA and OSU on one side and Indiana and Texas Tech on the other... and I think OSU is a much harder draw than Indiana or TT for UGA.
re: Sad watching Bama beg their way into the playoffs
Posted by DawginSC on 12/7/25 at 8:40 am to muttenstein
Is it really any different than last year?
Then they were 9-3 arguing that SMU should be dropped below them after losing the ACCCG.
Now they're 10-3 arguing they shouldn't be dropped below Miami and ND after losing the SECCG.
Then they were 9-3 arguing that SMU should be dropped below them after losing the ACCCG.
Now they're 10-3 arguing they shouldn't be dropped below Miami and ND after losing the SECCG.
re: On Indiana and "talent rankings"
Posted by DawginSC on 12/7/25 at 8:03 am to StringedInstruments
quote:
This is such a hilarious take. Ohio State is the reigning NC. They beat an SEC team this season. They have a team loaded with future NFL draft picks.
And Indiana just beat them.
The thing is that while less talented teams have always been able to "get up" to upset a team here and there during the season, that's different that winning 3-4 consecutive games against other highly ranked teams.
That's why the 12 team playoff FAVORS the big name schools, not the little guys.
Last year we had the following teams (by 247 talent ranking) in the playoff.
#2, #3, #4, #5, #6, #9, #11, #17, #25, #30 and #76.
The final 4 was #3, #4, #9 and #11
The final was #2 and #9
#3 won it all.
This year we're starting with (assuming Bama and ND make it):
#1, #2, #3, #5, #8, #9, #14, #21, #29, #68, #72 and #127.
We're going to end up with 2 top 15 talent teams in the finals of the playoff. It takes that to survive the playoff itself.
If we were still in a 4-team playoff...
Posted by DawginSC on 12/7/25 at 7:43 am
This year would be an argument to expand the playoff.
You'd have Indiana, UGA and TT in. The last spot would be an argument between 12-1 OSU (who just lost to Indiana), 11-1 Oregon (who lost to Indiana), 11-1 Ole Miss (who lost to UGA) and 11-1 A&M (who lost to Texas) for the last spot.
People would be saying that we need an 8, 12 or 16 team playoff so all these deserving teams get a chance.
But with the same results, people are now saying 12 is too many. Kind of ironic.
You'd have Indiana, UGA and TT in. The last spot would be an argument between 12-1 OSU (who just lost to Indiana), 11-1 Oregon (who lost to Indiana), 11-1 Ole Miss (who lost to UGA) and 11-1 A&M (who lost to Texas) for the last spot.
People would be saying that we need an 8, 12 or 16 team playoff so all these deserving teams get a chance.
But with the same results, people are now saying 12 is too many. Kind of ironic.
re: “It was a 14 point game and we had the ball with 7 and a half minutes to go” Kalen DeBoer
Posted by DawginSC on 12/7/25 at 7:37 am to Dawgfanman
A two score deficit with less than 8 minutes to go isn't a great situation.
re: The Argument Over Who’s In & Out is Designed to Generate Controversy and Attention
Posted by DawginSC on 12/7/25 at 7:33 am to the808bass
quote:
I don’t think there’s a team on the bubble who has a legitimate chance of winning the whole thing.
Actually, I think the teams on the bubble all have a solid chance of winning the playoff.
Being able to win 3-4 consecutive games against good teams leans more toward teams with a lot of talent on them then those with less talent but "grit" or "great coaches". It's a grind, not showing up for a moment of glory.
Miami, ND and Bama are all top 15 in the nation in team talent (along with OSU, UGA, OU, Oregon, and A&M). Those are the teams who can win 3-4 games straight.
Last year the final 4 were all rated 11th or better in total team talent.
The teams who don't have a chance in my mind are Ole Miss, Illinois, Texas Tech, James Madison and Tulane. Texas would also be in the "talented enough to win a title" group while Vandy and BYU would be in the "not talented enough" group.
quote:
JMU isn’t power 4 and whatever ranking you’re talking about is irrelevant as it gets evaluated every week. Duke would beat JMU if they played.
The playoff selection is literally set so that the top 5 conference champs in FBS (regardless of if they're in a "P4 conference" or not) get a playoff spot.
It's not the P4 champs plus one other conference champion. It's the top 5 conference champions.
This year the ACC champion lost games to Tulane, Illinois, GT, UCONN and UVA (in the regular season).
They aren't one of the top 5 conference champions.
quote:
Your definition of deserving and mine are different then. Based off the format they will get a spot. To me this tells me the format deserves to be trashed. Zero top 25 wins deserves nothing.
We all knew going into this season that the only guaranteed playoff participants are the top 5 ranked conference champions.
JMU and Tulane aren't as GOOD as many teams left out, including Texas, Vandy, Utah, USC, and Michigan as well as bubble teams like Bama, Miami and Notre Dame.
But everyone knew the top 5 conference champs would be in when the season started, and JMU and Tulane went out and played their way into the playoff based on those rules. They deserve those spots.
quote:
They deserve a spot by beating Troy, while Bama beat the conference champion in the most talented conference in America. Your logic is flawed and you should be embarrassed
"Deserve" is based on what you do based on the rules.
The only way to guarantee yourself a playoff spot based on the rules of the playoff is to be one of the 5 highest ranked conference champions.
This isn't an opinion... this is simply a definition.
You play yourself into the playoff by winning your conference. If you don't, you rely on being selected by a committee. You can argue the rules are bad, but anyone getting a playoff spot based on the defined rules of getting in rather than needing to be selected DESERVES a spot... simply because of the definition.
5 teams played themselves in. Illinois. UGA. Texas Tech. Tulane. James Madison.
Everyone else is hoping to win a beauty contest to get the 7 remaining spots.
Tulane and JMU will lose their first game. They have no shot at winning. But they earned their spot based on the rules as written.
Nah. Just reseed after round 1 is done so that the #1 seed plays the worst remaining seed and so on.
quote:
Why shouldn’t Duke be in?
Because they aren't one of the top 5 ranked conference champions.
JMU is ranked higher at 11-1 than Duke is at 8-5, so they're in instead.
quote:
To any of the haters that will undoubtedly blow up this board crying later if Bama makes it to the playoffs, I have a question for you. Do you really think James Madison is deserving? If so, your opinion should be disregarded.
Yes, they are.
The deserving teams in the playoffs are the ones who got the reserved spots by winning their conferences and being one of the top 5 ranked conference champions.
The others who get in are being invited rather than playing their way in.
You can easily argue your team is BETTER than JMU. But not more deserving. That requires you to play your way in on the field.
re: Georgia and Alabama are tied
Posted by DawginSC on 12/7/25 at 6:55 am to bamaFanNky
Congrats on your regular season win.
quote:
No they didn't - SMU was kept in the playoffs after losing, they just dropped them enough to justify Clemson being a higher seed.
SMU ended up as the 11 seed and lost to Penn State in the first round, 38-10.
The good ol' debate strategy of "making shite up," huh?
You are correct that SMU still made the playoff. But they were dropped below a team that didn't play in their CCG because of the loss (dropping below Indiana who didn't play in the Big 10 CCG last season).
So there is a precedent for dropping a team losing their CCG below a team that didn't play... which is punishing the team that played in a CCG and lost.
We can argue if it SHOULD happen... but not that it has happened.
re: Haha Kiffin is kicking himself right now for taking the LSU job.
Posted by DawginSC on 12/7/25 at 5:10 am to John somers
I don't think it would be smart of Bama to go after Kiffin.
Their first target if they start looking for a new coach should be Dan Lanning. If they can't lure him from Oregon, they're better off taking a top coordinator from a top team rather than going for the best head coach who has known warts.
Guys like Glenn Schuman from UGA or Brian Hartline from OSU.
Their first target if they start looking for a new coach should be Dan Lanning. If they can't lure him from Oregon, they're better off taking a top coordinator from a top team rather than going for the best head coach who has known warts.
Guys like Glenn Schuman from UGA or Brian Hartline from OSU.
re: JMU and Tulane getting auto bids just exposes the 12 team format.
Posted by DawginSC on 12/7/25 at 5:04 am to crimsoncoded94
quote:
I said 5 teams deserve a spot.
Indiana, Ohio State, UGA, Tech, and OM.
If any other teams wins than these 5 id be shocked
I disagree strongly.
When it comes to winning 3-4 straight games against top teams in the playoff, talent becomes a much bigger factor. Last year the final 4 teams were all 11th or better in team talent according to 247.
To me, if you aren't in the top 15 in talent, you aren't going to survive to the end of the playoff. I don't think TT, OM or Indiana have a shot because of this. The teams most likely to win in my mind due to the 3-4 week grind of the playoff are OSU, UGA, Oregon, A&M, OU and whoever makes it from Bama/ND/Miami.
Unless we get a very lopsided bracket with lots of the lower talent teams focused on one side, I think the final 4 teams will be from the above 8.
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