- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Obviously 47 has access to all the data but does he see impending economic catastrophe?
Posted on 5/26/26 at 9:38 am to bluedragon
Posted on 5/26/26 at 9:38 am to bluedragon
Ignore away. When you're sitting with your head in your hands, asking "Why are we here? How did this happen?", there will still be a few people around to remind you that when you had a chance to do something about printing $2,000,000,000,000 per year, you said "man, it jest don't matter man"
This post was edited on 5/26/26 at 9:44 am
1
Posted on 5/26/26 at 9:51 am to sidewalkside
Trump has a BS degree from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. Been in business for a long time developing and producing multiple and various types of projects. He may be consulted by his economics team, but I believe he knows what the score is with our economic future. He's not a community organizer or lifetime politician.
Posted on 5/26/26 at 9:54 am to Honkus
quote:
Well 98.7% of our economy does not depend on the strait being open and oil flowing like Iran or to a lesser extent Chyna
Ok, but a lot of other economies do, and if the contagion spreads, it will eventually affect our economy too.
Posted on 5/26/26 at 10:30 am to sidewalkside
I think he's aware of it, but the Iran thing is more important in the long-term. Also, we've been denying a recession for a decade and a half now with excess deficit spending and the longer it's delayed the worse it's going to be when it hits. It may be that an additional (and very low-priority) reasoning for going at Iran has been that he knows it's going to force the recession to finally happen. This would mean we go through the pain during his lame-duck term, with his (ideally, since this is all speculation) blocking the attempts by Congress to try to spend our way out.
Anyone wanting to know what economic issues we're taking about, it's the consumer debt bubble.
Credit card accounts 90+ days past due (delinquency)
Notice the terminology, these are accounts, not balances. We're currently at 13% of credit card accounts being in delinquency, the previous high was ~11% during the GFC.
Last year there was an increase in tightening of credit lending ( WSJ, LinkedIn, FNC, Yahoo Finance), this year the tightening has quieted down and become a bit more targeted (focusing more on specific segments, like sub-primes).
What I've been watching for warning signs has been credit card delinquencies, vehicle repos, unemployment and then home foreclosures (in that order).
Vehicle repossessions in 2024 were ~1.73M, which was the highest since 2009's 1.77M (ie: the GFC). 2025 was 2.2M with 2026 expected to be just over 3M (it's a lagging report though, so don't expect actual numbers for a while).
Unemployment remains above pre-pandemic levels but has roughly leveled out.
Home foreclosures have been rising since the COVID low in 2021. That said, foreclosures are still well below the pre-pandemic lows.
If card defaults and vehicle repos continue to grow, expect unemployment to eventually rise (as at least subprime and nearprime -if not into the Good range- lose access to credit, slowing the economy). If we get over 5% unemployment, that's should be a red flag. If it remains over 5% for at least a quarter, get your hip-waders on because it's about to get deep.
Anyone wanting to know what economic issues we're taking about, it's the consumer debt bubble.
Credit card accounts 90+ days past due (delinquency)
Notice the terminology, these are accounts, not balances. We're currently at 13% of credit card accounts being in delinquency, the previous high was ~11% during the GFC.
Last year there was an increase in tightening of credit lending ( WSJ, LinkedIn, FNC, Yahoo Finance), this year the tightening has quieted down and become a bit more targeted (focusing more on specific segments, like sub-primes).
What I've been watching for warning signs has been credit card delinquencies, vehicle repos, unemployment and then home foreclosures (in that order).
Vehicle repossessions in 2024 were ~1.73M, which was the highest since 2009's 1.77M (ie: the GFC). 2025 was 2.2M with 2026 expected to be just over 3M (it's a lagging report though, so don't expect actual numbers for a while).
Unemployment remains above pre-pandemic levels but has roughly leveled out.
Home foreclosures have been rising since the COVID low in 2021. That said, foreclosures are still well below the pre-pandemic lows.
If card defaults and vehicle repos continue to grow, expect unemployment to eventually rise (as at least subprime and nearprime -if not into the Good range- lose access to credit, slowing the economy). If we get over 5% unemployment, that's should be a red flag. If it remains over 5% for at least a quarter, get your hip-waders on because it's about to get deep.
Posted on 5/26/26 at 10:36 am to sidewalkside
Try to not listen to what the mainstream media is telling you. The vast majority of Americans while they would prefer cheaper gasoline prices aren't going to shoot themselves in the foot and go against President Trump. MAGA is trying to make our country & the world a safer place.
The ones we should be furious with are BUSH, BUSH, CLINTON, OBAMA, and BIDEN for sitting on their hands and avoiding the real problem.
The ones we should be furious with are BUSH, BUSH, CLINTON, OBAMA, and BIDEN for sitting on their hands and avoiding the real problem.
Posted on 5/26/26 at 12:08 pm to Mo Jeaux
quote:
Ok, but a lot of other economies do, and if the contagion spreads, it will eventually affect our economy too.
Point is these other economies will reach the breaking point well before ours. Either it forces the IRGC's hand or Chyna/Europe step in and say enough is enough.
We are in no hurry, no matter how bad the democrats or woke right want you to believe
This post was edited on 5/26/26 at 12:08 pm
Posted on 5/26/26 at 3:24 pm to OccamsStubble
Have to cover the idiocy of the left.
Trouble is you believe the communist manifesto of the Democrat Party. Pity.
Trouble is you believe the communist manifesto of the Democrat Party. Pity.
Posted on 5/26/26 at 4:14 pm to laxtonto
You totally don't know what you're talking about and you're just believing the talking heads. We are not hurting the main guys economically at all. We may be hurting the people of Iran a little but if they let 30,000 people die for protesting they sure don't give a shite if they go hungry. They were supposed to run out of money a long time ago and yet they still haven't. If you don't believe this is hurting us you need to go around asking your neighbors how they feel about grocery prices and gas prices. We need to blow the shite out of these frickers or leave.
Posted on 5/26/26 at 4:37 pm to Robin Masters
quote:
Typically you start a war when the economy tanks so it’s more likely the opposite is true, if in fact, “the economy” is a factor in Trumps decision making as it relates to Iran.
This is about the worst take ever. The idea that we started a war to improve the economy is laughably stupid. A handful of companies benefit from war while in aggregate it makes the economy worse.
Posted on 5/26/26 at 4:40 pm to Bard
quote:
I think he's aware of it, but the Iran thing is more important in the long-term. Also, we've been denying a recession for a decade and a half now with excess deficit spending and the longer it's delayed the worse it's going to be when it hits. It may be that an additional (and very low-priority) reasoning for going at Iran has been that he knows it's going to force the recession to finally happen. This would mean we go through the pain during his lame-duck term, with his (ideally, since this is all speculation) blocking the attempts by Congress to try to spend our way out.
You have not paid attention to Trump if you think he would block attempts by Congress to spend our way out of a recession. He is literally talking about ramping up the defense budget by over 500 billion a year. Which is completely insane.
Posted on 5/26/26 at 6:55 pm to Powerman
quote:
You have not paid attention to Trump if you think he would block attempts by Congress to spend our way out of a recession. He is literally talking about ramping up the defense budget by over 500 billion a year. Which is completely insane.
My hope is that he's going to pull that spending from elsewhere (higher tax revenues, other spending, etc).
Posted on 5/26/26 at 7:08 pm to Powerman
quote:
This is about the worst take ever. The idea that we started a war to improve the economy is laughably stupid. A handful of companies benefit from war while in aggregate it makes the economy worse.
I didn’t say we did. My point was that a poor economy would be a factor in deciding to go to war. Serves as a means to distract the people from economy and it creates some mechanisms for your cronies to get rich. I obviously did a dismal job of articulating my point but I certainly didn’t say this war was started because of bad economy so that’s on you.
Posted on 5/26/26 at 7:39 pm to dickkellog
The markets used to be a solid barometer of the economy in general...no so much now.
Compared to now, there is really nothing better economically comparing 2024 to 2026. Inflation is up, the labor market is slowing (still good), GDP is down from 2.8 to a tick under 2, with a slight bit of that attributed to tariffs. Record manufacturing losses and farmer bankruptcies are not coming back any time soon. We've likely lost the soybean market forever as that business is now between China and Brazil. In fact, China has thrived since Trump took office the second time and have record trade surpluses and another manufacturing boon.
Despite all the focus on fraud, Trump has already increased the debt by $3T without the burden of Covid that both he and Biden had to contend with during their terms, leading Biden to adding $8.45T in his term and Trump $7.8T in his first term. I'm glad we are rooting out fraud, but these amount to an ice cube melting on the floor when the bathtub is about to come crashing through the ceiling. Unless we slash Medicaid, Social Security or the military budgets, all of these DOGE, Somalians, etc are nothing more than a distraction to get you pissed off while the national spending continues to escalate.
So back to the markets. The markets should continue to do fine even if the every day man struggles become worse and worse. Two main reasons for this. One, AI. It is a once in a lifetime boon and it is still has plenty of legs before any figurative "bubble" bursts. The other is the BBB, aka, corporate welfare. This is only going to be even better for these blue chip companies as the Supreme Court has ruled these tariffs must be returned to these companies and a high court ruled the same on Trump's attempts to work-around the initial ruling.
TL;DR, the economy is getting worse and will continue to do so, but the markets will continue to do well behind AI, the BBB, and the injection of these tariffs that were collected being sent to these businesses inflating their earnings to record levels. The figuritive House of Cards is if/when our debt becomes such a burden that the bond market crashes. We've seen the BBB rating before but that would send us into junk bond territory.
I rarely post as it just seems to be Orange Man good or Orange Man bad. Personally, he has provided my family a record year economically but I'm in the minority that benefits off of the tariffs and corporate welfare.
Go Dawgs!
Compared to now, there is really nothing better economically comparing 2024 to 2026. Inflation is up, the labor market is slowing (still good), GDP is down from 2.8 to a tick under 2, with a slight bit of that attributed to tariffs. Record manufacturing losses and farmer bankruptcies are not coming back any time soon. We've likely lost the soybean market forever as that business is now between China and Brazil. In fact, China has thrived since Trump took office the second time and have record trade surpluses and another manufacturing boon.
Despite all the focus on fraud, Trump has already increased the debt by $3T without the burden of Covid that both he and Biden had to contend with during their terms, leading Biden to adding $8.45T in his term and Trump $7.8T in his first term. I'm glad we are rooting out fraud, but these amount to an ice cube melting on the floor when the bathtub is about to come crashing through the ceiling. Unless we slash Medicaid, Social Security or the military budgets, all of these DOGE, Somalians, etc are nothing more than a distraction to get you pissed off while the national spending continues to escalate.
So back to the markets. The markets should continue to do fine even if the every day man struggles become worse and worse. Two main reasons for this. One, AI. It is a once in a lifetime boon and it is still has plenty of legs before any figurative "bubble" bursts. The other is the BBB, aka, corporate welfare. This is only going to be even better for these blue chip companies as the Supreme Court has ruled these tariffs must be returned to these companies and a high court ruled the same on Trump's attempts to work-around the initial ruling.
TL;DR, the economy is getting worse and will continue to do so, but the markets will continue to do well behind AI, the BBB, and the injection of these tariffs that were collected being sent to these businesses inflating their earnings to record levels. The figuritive House of Cards is if/when our debt becomes such a burden that the bond market crashes. We've seen the BBB rating before but that would send us into junk bond territory.
I rarely post as it just seems to be Orange Man good or Orange Man bad. Personally, he has provided my family a record year economically but I'm in the minority that benefits off of the tariffs and corporate welfare.
Go Dawgs!
Posted on 5/27/26 at 6:31 am to sidewalkside
quote:
I can’t see why else he seems so eager to strike a deal with someone who has zero Intrest in striking a deal.
So you think the Iranians, who are suffering an economic catastrophe due to this war - their oil shut off and basic trade probably 75% cut off - have “zero interest in striking a deal”? They are desperate to strike a deal. Their problem is that they have disparate interests and no one in charge.
Posted on 5/27/26 at 6:51 am to Haagen Dawgs
quote:
We were 10T in debt in 2010, we now are staring at 40T
Most due to Democrat policies.
^^^^ The Fantasy
quote:
Despite all the focus on fraud, Trump has already increased the debt by $3T without the burden of Covid that both he and Biden had to contend with during their terms, leading Biden to adding $8.45T in his term and Trump $7.8T in his first term.
The Reality^^^
Posted on 5/27/26 at 7:00 am to Haagen Dawgs
thanks for proving my point panican, optimism simply isn't in your nature.
pay no attention to that man behind the curtain we are doomed!
riddle me this jethro, china and japan's dept to GDP ratio is over 300% ours is by comparison a fairly manageable 100% are china and japan on the brink of collapse?
pay no attention to that man behind the curtain we are doomed!
riddle me this jethro, china and japan's dept to GDP ratio is over 300% ours is by comparison a fairly manageable 100% are china and japan on the brink of collapse?
Posted on 5/27/26 at 7:29 am to dickkellog
quote:
riddle me this jethro, china and japan's dept to GDP ratio is over 300% ours is by comparison a fairly manageable 100% are china and japan on the brink of collapse?
If you learn that your daughter is hooked on heroin, is your first thought “well, so what? Jim’s girl is hooked on heroin and meth”
Posted on 5/27/26 at 12:57 pm to dickkellog
25% of our debt is held by foreign countries, more than enough to destroy our bond market like a bad sub-prime loan.
By comparison, Chinese debt is 97% domestic and Japan 90% domestic. Considering China has $2T in foreign debt, there is no threat of default despite the ratios. Shoot, China hold $700B of US debt…one third of their total foreign debt.
To put it simply, if enough countries called our debt due, our economy would crash as it relies on remaining investment-grade level. If China had all their foreign debt called, it wouldn’t even register.
If Jethro is some king of gotcha?
By comparison, Chinese debt is 97% domestic and Japan 90% domestic. Considering China has $2T in foreign debt, there is no threat of default despite the ratios. Shoot, China hold $700B of US debt…one third of their total foreign debt.
To put it simply, if enough countries called our debt due, our economy would crash as it relies on remaining investment-grade level. If China had all their foreign debt called, it wouldn’t even register.
If Jethro is some king of gotcha?
Posted on 5/27/26 at 1:34 pm to sidewalkside
quote:
Obviously 47 has access to all the data but does he see impending economic catastrophe?
He already said Americans’ financial situations didn’t matter to him
Posted on 5/27/26 at 1:35 pm to chalmetteowl
quote:
The Iran War Is Crushing Nebraska Workers. Dan Osborn Is One of Them
quote:
Since the Strait of Hormuz closed, Nebraskan farmers have faced surging fertilizer costs. The price of urea, a nitrogen fertilizer and one of the main inputs for corn and soybean production, jumped from roughly $455 per ton on February 27, the day before the Iran War began, to almost $700 per ton in late April, a stunning 54% spike. Agriculture and adjacent industries related to food production make up 44% of the state’s economic output, according to the Nebraska Farm Bureau.
“I’m feeling what people are feeling. And that’s not ‘authenticity,’ that’s just real, and it’s hard. It’s hard out there,” Osborn told Drop Site in a recent interview in Omaha. “If you’re 22 or 23 years old, you kind of expect it, right? It’s tough. You’ve got to make your way in the world first. But when you’re 51 and you’ve already worked your tail off your whole life, and you’re starting over, that becomes extremely and increasingly more difficult.”
Kennard farmer Scott Thomsen, who grows corn, soybean and alfalfa and maintains a cow calf herd, told Drop Site that normally he and his peers buy fertilizer for the upcoming year in July or August, but they are all now scrambling to plan for 2027 with the uncertainty and costs of the Iran War.
“Every single one of my neighbors, we cut back on urea this year because of the price, which will inevitably impact the yield of the grass,” Thomsen said. “We’re two months away from where we usually lock in nitrogen at a cheaper price and it’s through the roof right now because of this Strait of Hormuz deal. So I don’t know if it’s a situation where we don’t lock in our nitrogen this summer or hope the price goes down or what we do, because the price of corn isn’t at a place where we can hedge our corn crop for ‘27 and lock in our nitrogen for ‘27 and pencil it out to be profitable.”
LINK
Page 3 of 4
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News