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Haagen Dawgs
| Favorite team: | Georgia |
| Location: | |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 9 |
| Registered on: | 10/18/2020 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
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re: Obviously 47 has access to all the data but does he see impending economic catastrophe?
Posted by Haagen Dawgs on 5/27/26 at 12:57 pm to dickkellog
25% of our debt is held by foreign countries, more than enough to destroy our bond market like a bad sub-prime loan.
By comparison, Chinese debt is 97% domestic and Japan 90% domestic. Considering China has $2T in foreign debt, there is no threat of default despite the ratios. Shoot, China hold $700B of US debt…one third of their total foreign debt.
To put it simply, if enough countries called our debt due, our economy would crash as it relies on remaining investment-grade level. If China had all their foreign debt called, it wouldn’t even register.
If Jethro is some king of gotcha?
By comparison, Chinese debt is 97% domestic and Japan 90% domestic. Considering China has $2T in foreign debt, there is no threat of default despite the ratios. Shoot, China hold $700B of US debt…one third of their total foreign debt.
To put it simply, if enough countries called our debt due, our economy would crash as it relies on remaining investment-grade level. If China had all their foreign debt called, it wouldn’t even register.
If Jethro is some king of gotcha?
re: Obviously 47 has access to all the data but does he see impending economic catastrophe?
Posted by Haagen Dawgs on 5/26/26 at 7:39 pm to dickkellog
The markets used to be a solid barometer of the economy in general...no so much now.
Compared to now, there is really nothing better economically comparing 2024 to 2026. Inflation is up, the labor market is slowing (still good), GDP is down from 2.8 to a tick under 2, with a slight bit of that attributed to tariffs. Record manufacturing losses and farmer bankruptcies are not coming back any time soon. We've likely lost the soybean market forever as that business is now between China and Brazil. In fact, China has thrived since Trump took office the second time and have record trade surpluses and another manufacturing boon.
Despite all the focus on fraud, Trump has already increased the debt by $3T without the burden of Covid that both he and Biden had to contend with during their terms, leading Biden to adding $8.45T in his term and Trump $7.8T in his first term. I'm glad we are rooting out fraud, but these amount to an ice cube melting on the floor when the bathtub is about to come crashing through the ceiling. Unless we slash Medicaid, Social Security or the military budgets, all of these DOGE, Somalians, etc are nothing more than a distraction to get you pissed off while the national spending continues to escalate.
So back to the markets. The markets should continue to do fine even if the every day man struggles become worse and worse. Two main reasons for this. One, AI. It is a once in a lifetime boon and it is still has plenty of legs before any figurative "bubble" bursts. The other is the BBB, aka, corporate welfare. This is only going to be even better for these blue chip companies as the Supreme Court has ruled these tariffs must be returned to these companies and a high court ruled the same on Trump's attempts to work-around the initial ruling.
TL;DR, the economy is getting worse and will continue to do so, but the markets will continue to do well behind AI, the BBB, and the injection of these tariffs that were collected being sent to these businesses inflating their earnings to record levels. The figuritive House of Cards is if/when our debt becomes such a burden that the bond market crashes. We've seen the BBB rating before but that would send us into junk bond territory.
I rarely post as it just seems to be Orange Man good or Orange Man bad. Personally, he has provided my family a record year economically but I'm in the minority that benefits off of the tariffs and corporate welfare.
Go Dawgs!
Compared to now, there is really nothing better economically comparing 2024 to 2026. Inflation is up, the labor market is slowing (still good), GDP is down from 2.8 to a tick under 2, with a slight bit of that attributed to tariffs. Record manufacturing losses and farmer bankruptcies are not coming back any time soon. We've likely lost the soybean market forever as that business is now between China and Brazil. In fact, China has thrived since Trump took office the second time and have record trade surpluses and another manufacturing boon.
Despite all the focus on fraud, Trump has already increased the debt by $3T without the burden of Covid that both he and Biden had to contend with during their terms, leading Biden to adding $8.45T in his term and Trump $7.8T in his first term. I'm glad we are rooting out fraud, but these amount to an ice cube melting on the floor when the bathtub is about to come crashing through the ceiling. Unless we slash Medicaid, Social Security or the military budgets, all of these DOGE, Somalians, etc are nothing more than a distraction to get you pissed off while the national spending continues to escalate.
So back to the markets. The markets should continue to do fine even if the every day man struggles become worse and worse. Two main reasons for this. One, AI. It is a once in a lifetime boon and it is still has plenty of legs before any figurative "bubble" bursts. The other is the BBB, aka, corporate welfare. This is only going to be even better for these blue chip companies as the Supreme Court has ruled these tariffs must be returned to these companies and a high court ruled the same on Trump's attempts to work-around the initial ruling.
TL;DR, the economy is getting worse and will continue to do so, but the markets will continue to do well behind AI, the BBB, and the injection of these tariffs that were collected being sent to these businesses inflating their earnings to record levels. The figuritive House of Cards is if/when our debt becomes such a burden that the bond market crashes. We've seen the BBB rating before but that would send us into junk bond territory.
I rarely post as it just seems to be Orange Man good or Orange Man bad. Personally, he has provided my family a record year economically but I'm in the minority that benefits off of the tariffs and corporate welfare.
Go Dawgs!
re: The Requirements for Big 6 Entry
Posted by Haagen Dawgs on 1/8/26 at 7:24 pm to AUTiger789
Don’t comment much, but well done. A rare positive representation of Auburn.
re: This is why NIL is bad. The UGA player was driving 150+ in a BMW M5
Posted by Haagen Dawgs on 11/25/25 at 11:34 am to wadewilson
This is correct. It is a pattern that is so far from other programs when it comes to speeding and reckless driving.
I am pleased we are kicking the players off the team now as two are now playing for Purdue.
Regardless, the message isn’t getting through or they don’t care. Kirby has done a phenomenal job on so many levels but this is a black eye for him and the University.
Fix it. No excuses.
I am pleased we are kicking the players off the team now as two are now playing for Purdue.
Regardless, the message isn’t getting through or they don’t care. Kirby has done a phenomenal job on so many levels but this is a black eye for him and the University.
Fix it. No excuses.
re: One SEC school will be left out of playoff
Posted by Haagen Dawgs on 11/16/25 at 7:54 am to DawgsLife
GT going to ACC CG. Win that and the UGA game doesn't matter.
re: ESPN was just pulled off YouTubeTV
Posted by Haagen Dawgs on 10/31/25 at 3:10 pm to JCinBAMA
The sling idea is great. Thank you. Day pass for me for sure.
re: What I don't get about Kiffin to UF
Posted by Haagen Dawgs on 10/24/25 at 2:38 pm to cardboardboxer
If grandma had nuts, she’d be grandpa
re: The SOS Discrepancy is out of control
Posted by Haagen Dawgs on 10/20/25 at 2:29 pm to AUTiger789
This is all a moot point. Auburn will just claim an undefeated season based on average opponent rankings, Freeze will get his 8th Natty at Auburn.
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